There’s always great anticipation for the start of every Keeneland Meeting and the Spring 2026 session did not disappoint. However, all good things must come to an end as we’ve reached closing day. The Grade 3 Bewitch Stakes Presented by Keeneland Sales is the headliner this afternoon. Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz are the in the driver’s seat for leading jockey and trainer at this stand. First post this afternoon is set for 1:00 (ET).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 2 | 4 | 4,5 | 8 | DBL, PK3, PK4,
All-Turf PK3 (R2, R8, R10) |
|
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 4 | 3 | 3,4,2 | DBL, PK3 | ||
| 5 | 6 | 6,3 | 5 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | |
| 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | DBL, PK3, PK5, | |
| 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 8 | 3 | 3,2 | 6,9 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 9 | 9 | 9,10,5 | DBL | ||
| 10 | 10 | 10,6 | 12.7 |
Race 1:
Closing day starts with a $20K maiden claiming race going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. I’m having a hard time finding a better choice than Quality Spirits (#4) in this race. Eddie Kenneally had a winner here on Wednesday and this Quality Road colt might help him keep the momentum going. I don’t love that he was a $225K purchase that is now on sale for 1/10 of that purchase price. However, he’s already dropped in for a tag and there’s not maiden claiming races on the turf right now in Kentucky. Churchill may start offering some later in their meet after the Derby, but this horse looks like he needs a race. He’s handled the dirt fine in the past, so I’m thinking he’ll be in a good spot today. Highlighter (#1) will be the backup for me in this race. He has three starts, one on each of the three North American racing surfaces. His dirt effort was okay in the slop. He went to the sidelines for eight months after that race and came back at Turfway last month with another even effort. He could improve in his second start back over a fast track today.
Race 2:
Two year old fillies will get their turn to try the grass for the first time here at Keeneland. Note that the $3 All-Turf Pick-3 wager will start early with this race this afternoon, connecting this spot to the featured 8th race and the nightcap today. Three of the nine fillies entered in this race are sired by the freshman sire, Golden Pal. While I like a few of those runners, I think this a good spot for the second time starter, Frontline Fury (#4). I wondered if she was going to be better on the turf when she debuted here on the dirt a few weeks ago. She hung around to be third that day and now adds blinkers for a small barn that is quietly having a productive meet. Shining Moment (#5) is a half to the multiple stakes winning turf sprinter, Coppola. That one was a winner on debut on the dirt, but he was most dangerous on the green. He drilled a sharp three furlong workout here last week on the dirt and he’s running for a barn that knows absolutely what they’re doing with their babies at first asking. I’ll use another Golden Pal firster, Extravaganzoo (#8), on some deeper tickets. George Weaver has had a bit of a disappointing meet, but a two year old win on closing day could certainly turn some things around. Weaver has been excelling with babies on debut and he’s even better with them on the turf.
Race 3:
Fillies and mares will get their turn to go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in a $20K maiden claimer. Again, the morning line favorite looks awfully tough. Brad Cox and Flavien Prat team up with Speed Skater (#2), who was second against a better field of $30K maiden claimers here earlier in the meet. She was dangerous when stalking the pace in that race and she’s drawn a post that should allow her to work out a similar kind of trip. I suspect she’ll be chasing my backup, Stay Beautiful (#5) who figures to be the pacesetter. There’s not a lot of early speed signed up for this race, so she could start feeling brave if she’s left alone up front. Her lone race on the dirt in Indiana wasn’t bad last fall. She’ll need to be faster, but she’s in a spot where she could improve.
Race 4:
Three year olds will go 6 ½ furlongs in this $30K claiming race. It’s worth pointing out that the morning line favorite, Epic Summer (#1) is cross-entered in a $40K claiming race tomorrow at Churchill. While I was going to try to play against him in this spot regardless, I’m thinking that he’s not going to be racing today. The longer priced runners in this race are doing very little for me. I don’t think there’s much separating the top three runners on paper though. I’ll give the slight edge to Nine Ball (#3). He ran well to get up to win his debut at Ellis in the summer. He was overmatched in the Iroquois and he struggled mightily in last start as a three year old. He went away for about four months before on the synthetic at Turfway where he finished 6th. The winner of that race, Reb Five, came back to be an upset winner of the Palisades Stakes here on Sunday, so he was facing a decent group. He’s dropping in class, while adding blinkers for the first time. I’m expecting a solid effort from him in this race. Sometime (#4) ships here after scoring in an allowance race at Mahoning Valley in his last start. He has nine career starts under his belt already, including a third place finish here in October. He has been gradually improving and I think that last race could serve as a confidence booster. Damascus Steel (#2) is slated to face winners for the first time this afternoon. He was a solid winner in his second career start, scoring with $30K maiden claimers at the Fair Grounds in February. Horses that have come here from New Orleans continue to do well at this meet. He’s trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Irad Ortiz, so expect the tax on him to be high, especially if Epic Summer defects from this race as expected.
Race 5:
A field of nine has been assembled for this $100K maiden claiming race going six furlongs. I landed on a firster, My Lucky Penny (#6) as the top pick in this race. He’s the first foal to race from an unraced Ghostzapper mare. His sire, Connect, gets 9% winners with his firsters running in dirt sprints. His last work was solid for a barn that can pop with a firster at a price. I like the fit here. Dixie Devil (#3) continues to make incremental gains while racing in maiden special weight races. He’s been away since November when he ran his best race when going one mile on the dirt at Churchill. I’m not loving that there are no recorded works since March, but this barn does have a recent winner off a long layoff. Mainstream (#5) is the heavy favorite in this race and he’s worth using, however, his big races both came in the slop. His fast track efforts are more in line with this level of competition. I’m also not in love with him dropping for a tag here. His last effort wasn’t bad and he cost close to $500K.
Race 6:
Fillies and mares will go about seven furlongs in this N1X allowance race. I think this filly has a big shot with this compact group. She’s been facing good horses in N1X allowance company, while getting a steady diet of six furlong races. She wintered at the Fair Grounds where that distance is the longest one turn race that they card. She returns to Keeneland for the first time since finishing third in the 2024 Myrtlewood Stakes. She has good tactical speed, and this distance should suit her much better than I think it will suit the favorite, Absolute Honor (#3) My feeling is that this filly is a need the lead type. She has some big figures, but those came in races where she was afforded very leisurely fractions. In races where she had to work hard in the early stages, she fell apart. I think the presence of the Southern California shipper, Tesouro de Pirata (#5) makes her task significantly tougher. I’m looking for Trust Fund Philly to be finishing stronger.I’ll look to Sassy Princess (#1) as the backup in this spot. I’m not completely convinced that she’s fast enough to win this race without some significant help. She’ll make her first start for David Jacobson after a dull effort at nine furlongs in the mud in New York. She’s been running well in longer races and she’s handled the one turn mile rather well, so if the others are struggling, she might be the one to watch.
Race 7:
The Laurel invader, Freeze the Fire (#4) looks awfully tough in this $20K starter allowance race. After losing two times in a row, which snapped a four race winning streak, he got back to winning in his latest start, easily beating a $12,500 starter allowance field in Maryland. He ships out here where he’s going to face tougher competition. However, he gets Irad Ortiz in the saddle for his local debut, which won’t hurt his chances. He seems to be a fairly easy horse to ride because he’s always in a good striking spot on the track. . Perhaps that’s why she’s been in the Winner’s Circle nine times from her 34 career starts. Show Time (#2) is the logical alternative, coming off a big effort in New Orleans in his last start. That race was his third start off the Joe Sharp claim, so getting that extra time in his program has helped. That was a career top Beyer figure for this seven year old, so whether or not he has the ability to replicate that effort remains to be seen.
Race 8, The Grade 3 Bewitch Stakes Presented By Keeneland Sales:
The final stakes race of this meet is a very competitive 12 furlong marathon for fillies and mares on the turf. I do think the favorite, Speed Shopper (#9) could be vulnerable in this spot, so I’m looking for viable alternatives. I landed on Venencia (#3) as the top pick in this spot. She was a handy winner of the Grade 3 Dowager Stakes at this distance on this course in the fall. She caught a yielding course that afternoon and she does excel over softer ground, She joined Saffie Joseph’s stable over the winter and her three starts at Gulfstream in longer turf races weren’t great. However, I’m not sure she loved the course there, which was very firm for all three races. Even though it appears that the course here will also be firm, I think the scenery change and different style turf course here at Keeneland could be much more to her liking. Virgin Colada (#2) comes back to the turf course this afternoon after a pair of strong efforts on the synthetic at Turfway, both of which came at 10 furlongs there. She broke her maiden on the grass and was Grade 2 placed on the lawn in her two year old season. Her three year old season was abbreviated, but not her best. I do think she’s a horse that could improve at longer distances on the lawn. Both Just Basking (#7) and Mrs. Astor (#6) make sense as horses to include on your tickets as well. Just Basking was the winner of the The Very One Stakes at Gulfstream two starts ago. She was wide and struggled a bit when she finished 4th in the Orchid Stakes. Ian Wilkes got Burnham Square to run a huge race in the Elkhorn at this distance last week. She’s new to this style of racing and it does seem to suit her. Mrs. Astor ships in from California. She’s very consistent in those longer races out west, but I don’t know how that competition stacks up against the East Coast runners. The figures are competitive though and she is an old pro that always shows up, so she’s a tough one to leave off the tickets as well.
Race 9:
I’m going to try a bomb with Mr. All In (#9) in this maiden special weight sprint at six furlongs. He debuted in a maiden special weight on the Louisiana Derby undercard at the Fair Grounds. His trainer, Bret Calhoun, doesn’t have a great track record with debuting runners, but historically, his runners take a step forward in their second time around. He broke well and settled in the middle of the pack that day. It took him a little while to wind up, but once he was going well, he found himself behind a wall of horses with nowhere to go for the better part of the long stretch run. He was finally able to tip out, but he could do no better than seventh in that race. He breezed over this course two weeks ago and his work last week was much more businesslike. He’s the first foal to race from the graded stakes placed mare, Ain’t No Elmers. She was very good early in her career for Calhoun, dominating her first two races. I can see this colt flying under the radar and turning in a much better effort this afternoon. It’s a bit of an odd move to see McCann (#10) wheeling back so quickly. He debuted in a 5 ½ furlong turf sprint. I picked him on top in that race, but I couldn’t play him at 7-5. He showed some early zip then faded to be last of that six pack. He’s a half to the multiple stakes winner, Valentine Candy, who is a beast at six furlongs on the dirt. It’s been a tough meet for Weaver, but this is another horse that could help him end on a sweeter note. Mumdoggie (#5) comes to town from Oaklawn for Mike Maker after a second place finish in a fast race there. He has every right to improve in his second start off the break, so he’s another one that makes sense to have on your tickets.
Race 10:
The get out race for the meet is a nine furlong N2X allowance for fillies and mares going on the turf. This is another race that has a lot of possibilities. Random Harvest (#10) for Jimmy Toner is the pick here. She cleared the N1X condition on this course back in the fall of 2024.She’s only had four scattered starts since that victory, but the fact that she’s coming back in four weeks feels like a step in the right direction. She stalked a slow pace at Tampa at this level in her last start where she got close, but she couldn’t quite get to the leader. She’s never finished off the board in six career starts, so she always shows up. She has fired her best shots at longer distances, so the added half furlong should be in her best interest today, Pretty Picture (#6) is a logical player in this spot. She’s making her first start since the end of November for Chad Brown. She end her three year old season with a pair of strong efforts to finish in the money in both the Grade 2 Sands Point and the Grade 2 Mrs. Revere. She was a half length behind Lush Lips, who might have been the best three year old filly on the turf in North America last year. She clearly has ability and if she runs back to her last start at Churchill, I’m not sure there’s anyone that can beat her. Both Sarawak Rim (#12) and Night of Rose (#7) are total wild cards in this race. Both mares are Group 1 winners in South America. Sarawak Rim is bred for the turf, but all of her career starts have been on the dirt. She came to the US and she dove in head first by starting in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. She was dull in her last start at Gulfstream back in January when she was asked to go a one turn mile. She tries the turf for the first time and while she has a lousy draw, I do think she’s worth considering. Night of Rose has been sidelined since August. She was a Group 1 winner two back when going 10 furlongs on the turf in Brazil. Paulo Lobo was her trainer there and he brought her to the States for the first time. He’s popped with a first time import at a price in the past.
2026 Spring Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners: 32/127 (25.2%), $263.58, $2.08 ROI (Through Race 5 on 4/23/26)
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
