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Bet the Preakness Before the Derby
Edition No. 14 · Thursday, April 23, 2026 · 9 Days to Post
🎰 Preakness Future Wager Opens Friday
The Preakness Stakes Future Win Bet opens tomorrow and closes on Derby Day — your first chance to bet the second jewel of the Triple Crown before anyone knows who wins the first one. The 40-horse field includes all the major Derby contenders, plus horses pointed directly at Pimlico.
A few morning line prices that caught our eye: Renegade is the 10-1 Preakness favorite — maybe short enough for a horse who could possibly skip the race even if he wins the Derby and seemingly certain to pass if he does not. Iron Honor, Chad Brown’s stated Preakness target, is 15-1 alongside Commandment. Further Ado is shorter than both at 12-1. The real Preakness-first horses to watch: Crude Velocity (12-1) and Taj Mahal (12-1), neither of whom is in the Derby field.
This is also the first Preakness Future Wager since CDI acquired the Preakness IP — a story we covered in yesterday’s D2D. Check that out if you missed it.
Full field and odds at preakness.com/futurewager. We’ll have a full video breakdown of the Preakness Future Wager coming soon on the ITM YouTube channel.
📊 Is Todd Pletcher Actually Bad in the Kentucky Derby?
Shortly after we published our deep dive on Todd Pletcher’s Derby record, we heard from Paul Matties, Duke’s brother. (We’re happy to be hosting those two for a Derby week show over at dukespicks.com — use code ITM10 for a discount.) Paul pointed out another very smart way of looking at the stats. Instead of evaluating Pletcher’s record in strict win/place/show terms, he used his proprietary database to measure how each Pletcher runner performed relative to itself in figure terms — did the horse run its number, improve, or regress?
The results are sobering. Of the 58 Pletcher Derby starters Paul had figure data on, 59.6% ran 8 or more points lower than their pre-Derby figure. The average regression across all starters was -15.2 points. Among Pletcher’s 14 short-priced starters with figure data, the five who essentially ran their number all finished in the top three. The other nine regressed by an average of more than 20 points. The pattern is binary — Pletcher’s Derby horses either show up or they don’t. There’s almost no middle ground.
Sadly, this doesn’t offer us a whole lot of clarity when it comes to Renegade — but it’s certainly interesting.
👉 Read the full article with complete data table
🎙️ KDBC Preview Show
The Kentucky Derby Betting Challenge is back with a guaranteed $300,000 purse — and John Gaspar sat down with elite tournament players Matt McJunkin and Ryan Petrunyak to break down strategy, bankroll management, and how to gain an edge in horse racing’s newest major contest. Whether you’re playing or just want to understand how the sharpest minds approach Derby Day wagering, this one’s worth your time.
👉 Watch the full KDBC Preview Show on the ITM YouTube channel
🔄 The Field Is Set
Trainer Michael McCarthy confirmed yesterday that Stark Contrast will run in the $1 million American Turf on Derby Day rather than the Derby itself. That moves Jeff Mullins’ Intrepido into the 20th and final Derby slot. Litmus Test is now 21st on the also-eligible list — he’d need a scratch to get in.
The 20-horse field for Kentucky Derby 152 is locked.
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🌅 Dawn at the Downs Starts Today
Churchill Downs opens its doors to the public starting this morning — free admission from 6:45 to 10:00 AM daily through April 29. Derby and Oaks horses train in an exclusive window from 7:15 to 7:30 AM with special saddle towels bearing their names: yellow for Derby, pink for Oaks.
And a nice scene yesterday: last year’s Derby winner Sovereignty was back in his old stall in Bill Mott’s barn and back on the track during the special training window. Former Bellarmine basketball coach Scott Davenport was on hand — Mott let him hold Sovereignty’s halter, which will be auctioned for charity this week.
📌 Post Draw Saturday · ~2:15 PM ET
The next major moment. Twenty horses, twenty gates. The Kentucky Derby and Oaks post position draw takes place between races 3 and 4 on Opening Day at Churchill Downs. We’ll have the full draw, the morning line, and instant analysis across all ITM platforms as soon as it drops.
📄 Free Derby Contender Profiles — 13 Live
Thirteen free written profiles and counting — analysis, speed figures, running style, and what to watch for on May 2:
👉 Renegade · Commandment · Further Ado · The Puma · Chief Wallabee · So Happy · Silent Tactic · Emerging Market · Fulleffort · Potente · Incredibolt · Albus · Pavlovian
📣 See PTF and JK Live — Next Week
Wednesday, April 29 — SIX DAYS · 6:30–9:00 PM
Final Answers: The ITM Oaks & Derby Handicapping Event
The Manchester Hotel · Lexington, KY
Premium open bar, buffet, Friday & Saturday PPs included. $155. Get yours here.
Thursday, April 30 · 5:30 PM
Derby Inquiries with PTF and JK
The Galt House Lobby · Louisville, KY — Free and open to the public.
📋 ICYMI
👉 Yesterday’s D2D: “One Company, Two Jewels”
👉 Is Todd Pletcher Actually Bad in the Kentucky Derby? (ITM Original)
👉 Renegade Monster Pod with Duke Matties
👉 Free Bris Derby PPs (PDF)
👉 Derby OddsWatch
❓ Today’s Open Question
The Preakness Future Wager has Iron Honor and Renegade both in the field. If you had to bet one horse for the Preakness right now — before the Derby is even run — who would it be and why?
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📚 Previous Editions
Edition 13 · April 22, 2026 — One Company, Two Jewels
Edition 12 · April 21, 2026 — “Looked Like a Sovereignty Work to Me”
Edition 11 · April 20, 2026 — The Puma’s Hidden Bullet
