By Michael Domabyl
While there was a flicker of doubt that Chief Wallabee would be left on the also-eligible list, recent defections have allowed him to move comfortably into the body of the race ahead of this weekend’s draw. That development is beneficial for the lightly-raced colt to give him a fair shot at a decent post rather than the dreaded 20-hole. His 50 points put him 17th on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.
Racing Record and Notable Performances
With just three lifetime starts, Chief Wallabee is amongst the most inexperienced runners in the field. However, what he lacks in seasoning he could more than make up for in raw talent. That was on display when he broke his maiden at first asking back on January 10th defeating fellow Derby contender The Puma by 1.5 lengths. That auspicious unveiling had pundits wondering whether the normally patient Bill Mott would press on towards the Derby trail or let this colt develop towards a mid-summer target. An entry seven weeks later in the G2-Fountain of Youth Stakes signaled the former foregoing an N1X allowance race to chase Derby dreams. The colt made an eye-catching 4wd move around the far turn, but was outfinished to the wire by Commandment. He returned to face that rival again in his final prep, the G1-Florida Derby, but couldn’t turn the tables and eventually checked in third beaten just a half length.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: Constitution
- Dam (Damsire): A La Lucie (by Medaglia d’Oro)
- Owner: Michael & Katherine Ball
- Trainer: Bill Mott
- Jockey: Junior Alvarado
There’s not many holes to poke in this horse’s pedigree as he’s by a top stallion in dual G1 winner Constitution who has sired Belmont winner and Derby runner Tiz the Law as well as Stephen Foster winner Mindframe. While he’s the first foal from an unraced dam, this side of his pedigree is supported by top broodmare sire in Medaglia d’Oro.
His human connections should ring familiar as trainer Bill Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado teamed up to take home the Run for the Roses last year with Sovereignty. Mott, a 1998 Hall of Fame inductee, continues to be recognized as one of the top conditioners in the game and will shoot for his third Kentucky Derby win (2019-Country House via DQ). Junior Alvarado got his first Derby win last year after previously never hitting the board with his five lifetime mounts.
Final Prep Analysis
- Final Prep Race: G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park (March 28th)
- Finish Position: 3rd out of 6
- Final Time: 1:49.99
- Beyer Speed Figure: 99
What the Florida Derby lacked in quantity was made up for in quality. Even after scratching down to a field of six, four prime Derby contenders remained with Chief Wallabee going off third-choice among them at 2-1. He took up a comfortable stalking position in the pocket behind the speed horses as the field coasted through the first three-quarters at a moderate pace. The tempo quickened as they turned for home and Junior Alvarado swung out for the rally down the lane. The Puma made the first move around the far turn to break the race open while Commandment was widest of all. This put Chief Wallabee in a slightly uncomfortable position to rally through a gap between horses, and ultimately was outfinished by Commandment who nosed out The Puma on the line.
Strengths and Concerns
Strengths: This colt clearly has the talent to compete with the best of his generation. As the Florida Derby had arguably the strongest field of all the domestic prep races. One could argue that there were slight obstacles in both his stakes tries as he made a prolonged 4wd sweep in the Fountain of Youth while the winning move in the Florida Derby would’ve required him to spurt between horses. He has an adaptable running style where he shouldn’t be compromised by any type of Derby pace scenario and he’s apparently been working well coming into this.
Concerns: Some may point to the fact he’s still eligible for an N1X, but times have changed and inexperience is not as big of a red flag as it once was. While he didn’t race at two, the curse of Apollo has been debunked on multiple occasions as there’s precedent for a Derby winner with only three career starts coming in. There are really two major concerns. The first is that he was beaten on the square by The Puma in the last prep and by Commandment each of the last two times, so he needs to find a way to turn the tables on those rivals. The second concern is the addition of blinkers for the Derby. While he’s appeared to work well in them and I’m certainly not qualified to question the training decisions of Bill Mott, history is not on his side for this move. Over the last 25 years 11 horses have been first-time blinkers in the race and all have failed to hit the board. He could be too keen early with this equipment change and become a pace casualty.
Expert Opinions and Odds
Given the popular connections and projected upside this colt possesses, the bandwagon for Chief Wallabee is sure to fill up as we near Derby day. He’s currently listed as the fourth or fifth choice in the overseas markets. He’s likely to be somewhere in the 10-1 range on the day.
Conclusion
Will the blinkers help him maintain focus and finish off his final furlong or will they cause him to become rank early and leave the tank empty for the drive? That’s the key question handicappers have to answer when determining whether to use Chief Wallabee in their plays. Otherwise he checks the boxes on talent, pedigree and connections and the first Saturday in May might be the only time in his career he goes off at a double-digit price.
