By Chance Rains
There’s no doubt that Chad Brown wishes Paladin would be loading the gate for the 152nd Run For The Roses, but Emerging Market came out of nowhere to get Brown a spot in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Ridden by Flavien Prat, the chestnut colt locked himself in with a 100-point score in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in only his second career race, which marked him up to a comfortable 8th position on the points leaderboard. Bred in Paris, Kentucky by Robert Slack’s Stoneriggs Farm, the $185,000 purchase from the 2024 Keeneland Yearling September sale for Klaravich Stable burst onto the Derby scene in February and hasn’t looked back since.
Racing Record and Notable Performances
Emerging Market made his debut at 3 years old in a Tampa Bay Downs maiden special weight over a mile and forty yards in early February. The chestnut colt sat 4 lengths back of the pace in 5th at the half-mile pole and made an outside move to clash with the leading Powershift, the two exchanging contact in the stretch. Emerging Market emerged from the duel to win by three-quarters of a length. The top two left the third place finisher some 14 lengths behind.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: Candy Ride
- Dam & Damsire: Wild Empress (by Empire Maker)
- Owner: Klaravich Stables, Inc
- Trainer: Chad Brown
- Jockey: Flavien Prat
Emerging Market is sired by the champion Argentinian miler Candy Ride, who’s still oh-so-sweet as a sire even 22 years later. He’s produced 20 Grade 1 winners that include several big-race champs such as Dubai World Cup winner Hit Show, Breeders’ Cup Classic champion and multiple-Grade-1 winner Gun Runner, and Santa Anita Handicap victor Misremembered, all successful at 10 furlongs. Candy Ride foals tend to ooze stamina relative to their compatriots, and several of his colts have loaded the gate for the Derby over the years, including 2-year-old champions Game Winner and Shared Belief, along with the Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney’s Candy. However, the closest a horse sired by Candy Ride has come to winning the Roses is a third place by the aforementioned Gun Runner.
The chestnut colt is the first registered foal for Wild Empress by the lauded Empire Maker, whose sireline produced the Triple Crown winner American Pharoah through Pioneerof The Nile. Wild Empress never ran in the money in her 4 starts at the track. The second dam, Trappings by Seeking The Gold, produced 4 winners including the multiple-graded-stakes winner and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies champion She Be Wild. The third dam, Duck Trap by Triple Crown winner Affirmed, was a decently successful turf runner, earning just over $300,000 and producing females who became solid broodmares like Jack In The Cat (6 foals, all winners) and Wood Duck (12 foals, 10 winners).
Five-time Eclipse award-winning trainer Chad Brown is hoping to end his Derby woes this year. He’s come close twice, Sierra Leone (another member of the Candy Ride tree, sired by Gun Runner) in 2024 and Good Magic in 2018 both finished runner-up in the Run For The Roses. Brown and Klaravich have teamed up before on successful Triple Crown trails, winning the Preakness in 2022 with Early Voting, but the other two crowns have eluded both trainer and owner.
Likewise, the back-to-back Eclipse award-winning French jockey Flavien Prat has never crossed the wire first in the Derby, but has one triumph via disqualification in 2019 with Country House. In his 8 Derby starts, Prat has run in the top three of the Derby 6 times, including five of the last six years. He has a handle on this race and knows what it takes to finish high, but he has yet to officially make it to the post first.
Final Prep Analysis
- Final Prep Race: G2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds (March 21st)
- Finish Position: 1st out of 9
- Final Time: 1:55:18
- Beyer Speed Figure: 90
Emerging Market would rise to stakes company for his second start in a make-or-break move at the 1 3/16 mile Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. Breaking from the farthest post in a field of nine, he again sat 5th three-and-a-half lengths off a hot opening fraction of .22.65 and a .46.23 half to make his move wide in the turn, confronting the pace-setting Sunland Derby winner Pavlovian at the top of the stretch. A game Pavlovian battled Emerging Market down the stretch with the latter only coming first by a head with a time of 1.55.18.
Strengths and Concerns
Strengths: This horse has guts. In both his wins he had to deal with dug-in horses to his inside down the stretch and he battled to reach the wire first, trading contact with other horses in both instances. He knows how to find the wire, and with his pedigree, I would be shocked if this horse couldn’t run all day.
His other big upside is that he’s proven over 9.5 furlongs. The unique distance of the Louisiana Derby means that he only has to go an extra half-furlong from his last start, unlike his rivals who need to find a full furlong to win.
Concerns: The biggest knock on Emerging Market is his inexperience. At what point do we stop believing in the Curse of Apollo? Justify and Mage have proven that 3-year-olds can win the Derby without needing a start at two. However, Justify had three starts before the Derby, and Mage had four. Emerging Market has a scant two starts leading into the biggest race of his life. The last time a horse made his third career start in the Kentucky Derby and won was in 1883, Leonatus.
Something that can go either way is his trip. He’s never sat more than two lengths off a leader before making his move. Is he going to be able to sit further off the lead and get the right kind of trip, or will he sit too close to the traditionally white-hot Derby pace and find himself doing his best running too soon? There seems to be a lack of real front-end speed in this year’s gate, but it doesn’t take much for a sudden strategy switch to see more horses push the pace, and in Emerging Market’s case get sucked in from a stalking position and be worn down in the stretch.
While not a note on form, it should be mentioned only two horses have ever won the Louisiana Derby and went on to secure the big win in Louisville afterwards, Black Gold in 1924 and Grindstone in 1996. History is against him.
Expert Opinions and Odds
In the final two future pools, Emerging Market went from 33-1 in the fifth to 15-1 in the final pool following his score in the Louisiana Derby. Many experts are dismissing him, not for lack of talent, but simply because they think he isn’t ready for the biggest stage in racing. The consensus is that he lands around 15-1, somewhere around being the sixth favorite on the board. I think his price stabilizes there, with potential to drop given the popularity of Prat and Brown at the window.
Conclusion
Will all the stars align? Will Prat finally come across the finishing post first, giving Brown and Klaravich Stables their first Derby wins? This is the best shot Brown has in the barn right now but the raging question marks leave a lot to be desired, making Emerging Market somewhat of a wild card in the top half of considered contenders.
Prat probably takes Emerging Market to the second group of horses after the gate opens. He’ll have to make his move in anticipation of the closers so he has the opportunity to lock horns in the stretch and lean on the tenacity he showed in two starts. His jockey knows what he’s doing, so that just leaves the horse. I just hope his potential impact is more than a moving pylon for the closers to navigate around.
He’s an interesting prospect and one I’ll keep following well after the dust settles in Kentucky. I think there’s a race for him to go out and win, maybe the Preakness or the Haskell, I’m just not sure if it’s the Derby. However, as the racing adage goes, ‘if you’re in it, you can win it.’
