By Chance Rains
A horse who’s proven to always show up, Mark Casse’s Silent Tactic danced every dance and raced every prep on Oaklawn Park’s road to the Kentucky Derby. The millionaire bay colt finds himself 7th on the leaderboard for the Derby with 100 points he earned not through one massive score, but consistency and quality performances. Bred in Lexington, Kentucky by the Don Alberto Corporation, the $500,000 OBS Spring 2-Year-Old Sale graduate will be loading the Derby gate looking to give owner John C. Oxley his second win in the Run For The Roses. Oxley last won the Derby in 2001 with Monarchos.
Racing Record and Notable Performances
Silent Tactic made his debut on the 10th of October at 2 years old, going 8.5 furlongs on the all-weather surface of Ontario, Canada’s Woodbine Race Track in a maiden special weight. Under the hold of Sahin Civaci, Silent Tactic broke a step slow at the rail, staying close as the compact field of six made their way into the first turn. He sat close behind the lead duel down the backstretch, toeing out from the rail in the turn to run down the favorite Valley Of Kings, who had shaken off the other leader at the top of the stretch. Silent Tactic outkicked the favorite down the lane to win by 2 lengths.
The bay colt’s next start would be the early-November Grade 3 Grey Stakes at Woodbine, another mile-sixteenth race across the all-weather with seven horses in the gate. With Fraser Aebly in the saddle, he broke from the 6th post in midpack and sat 5th, around 2 1⁄2 lengths from the lead outside the even-money favorite The Big Con, jockeyed by Civaci. As position shifted down the back, Silent Tactic lost touch with the more forwardly placed Big Con, and had to go up to the five-path to start his spurt while Big Con saw the seas part on the rail for his move. Aebly and Silent Tactic’s outside rally couldn’t catch the favorite, who had enough left in the tank to come home first by ¾ of a length.
His third start would come Stateside in the first of Oaklawn Park’s Kentucky Derby prep races, the listed Smarty Jones over 8.5 furlongs, the colt’s first test on dirt. With Jaime Torres riding, Silent Tactic broke from the third post and rated 6th going into the turn. Heading down the back with a slow .24.48 opening quarter, Silent Tactic trailed the field of 8 by a little over 4 lengths as the half slogged by in .49.3, and he moved between horses into the turn to get position for his late run. Meanwhile, at the front of the field, his stablemate and silkmate Strategic Risk was loving the slow pace, moving past the longshot leader Scar Ship and heading for the finishing post while Silent Tactic was untangling himself from traffic, moving wide to the 6-path at the top of the stretch so he could pass horses. He managed to pass the other runners to finish second, 4-and-a-half lengths behind his stablemate in a Casse-Oxley 1-2 finish.
One month later, Silent Tactic would enter into a full gate of 12 for Oaklawn’s Grade 3 Southwest Stakes, another test at 1 1/16 miles. In his first partnership with Cristian Torres, the colt broke from the ninth post with his typical slow step, finding himself 11th and getting left behind by over nine lengths into the clubhouse turn by the post-time favorite D’code and the Bob Baffert-trained Buetane. The pace in the Arkansas dirt played much faster than in the Smarty Jones, with early fractions of .23.52 and .47.52. Silent Tactic remained patient at the tail-end of the field, staying off the rail in anticipation for his spurt and dodging fading horses in the turn. The winning move didn’t come until he was well in the stretch, with Torres and Silent Tactic sliding to the outside of the pack and blasting by the rest of the field (including silkmate Strategic Risk) with ease, winning the Southwest going away by just over 3 lengths.
The 1st of March saw the pairing of Cristian Torres and Silent Tactic renewed for the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, over the same conditions as the colt’s last two starts. Like clockwork, Silent Tactic was taken to the back of the field as the pack of nine horses rushed into the first turn, keeping towards the inside. As the half passed in .46.62, Torres and Silent Tactic sat 7th down the back, moving between horses up to 5th as they started going after the leaders Litmus Test and Class President before the field hit the far turn. Stepping into the 4-path, it looked like he had the leaders right where he wanted them as the favorite Litmus Test faded on the inside. Class President, however, had other ideas and was game for a stretch duel that saw the front runner get the better of Silent Tactic by a nose.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: Tacitus
- Dam & Damsire: Magical Sign (by Gun Runner)
- Owner: John Oxley
- Trainer: Mark Casse
- Jockey: Cristian Torres
Silent Tactic is the standout foal from the first crop of multiple-Grade-2 winner Tacitus, the newest branch of the popular Tapit sireline. Tacitus had his own successful Classic year campaign in 2019, winning the Wood Memorial and the Tampa Bay Derby, following those successes by placing 3rd in the Derby to Country House and running second-best to Sir Winston in the Belmont Stakes and Code Of Honor in the Travers. Tacitus also comes from a productive broodmare and counts the multiple-graded-stakes winner and 2025 Breeders’ Cup Distaff champion Scylla and multiple stakes winner Batten Down as full siblings. The Tapit lines continue to dominate North American breeding, characteristically producing horses that boast explosive late spurts in the same manner that Silent Tactic also takes after. Tapit himself has sired 35 Grade 1 winners and his champion sons have continued their sire’s work as they produce their own champions. None of the lines have yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner, however, in spite of sending runners to the starting gate for many years, most recently in last year’s Run For The Roses the Arkansas Derby winner Sandman (by Tapit) and Louisiana Derby champ Tiztastic (descended from Tapit through sire Tiz The Law).
The bay colt is the first foal for the unplaced Magical Sign by the 2017 Horse Of The Year Gun Runner, a successful dirt router who captured the Breeders’ Cup Classic over 10 furlongs. Silent Tactic has a lot of interesting crosses in his 5×5, starting with a 3×4 to the elite champion A.P. Indy through his second dam Malvinia, producer of 5 winners including the stakes-placed Moraz. The third dam, Macoumba by the industry-shaping Mr. Prospector, did her best running overseas in France, capturing the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac Criterium des Pouliches at 2 years old. She counts four stakes winners as half-sisters including the Group 1 winner Septieme Ciel, and as a broodmare foaled 10 winners and female lines that produced the stakes winners Compelled, Worth Repeating and Temple City.
In addition to being 3×4 to A.P. Indy, Silent Tactic is 4×5 to Unbridled through his sire Tacitus, and through the cross of dam and sire he is 4×5 to Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, the previously mentioned Mr. Prospector and the Northern Dancer-descendant Storm Cat.
Mark Casse, a 16-time winner of the Sovereign Award for Outstanding Trainer in Canada, is looking to mark off the Derby as the jewell of the Triple Crown he has yet to collect, sweeping the Preakness and Belmont with War Of Will and Sir Winston in 2019. His highest finishes in the Derby are merely two 7th-place runs, the aforementioned War Of Will in 2019 and Sandman last year.
Cristian Torres had the advantage of familiar dirt throughout the Oaklawn meet. As of 2023 he’s only the second jockey to win 100 races in a single Oaklawn Park meet, a feat only done once before by the Hall Of Famer Pat Day. He’s also been the leading rider there twice. He’ll retain the mount on Silent Tactic, making his very first start in the Run For The Roses, and his first start in any Classic race. It’s not unheard of for a jockey to win the Derby in their first attempt, as it’s happened 28 times, including 3 this century. The most recent jockey to conquer the Derby in their maiden start was Sonny Leone in 2022, guiding the second-biggest longshot in Derby history Rich Strike to the wire in first.
Final Prep Analysis
- Final Prep Race: G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn (March 28th)
- Finish Position: 2nd out of 8
- Final Time: 1.49.70
- Beyer Speed Figure: 91
Silent Tactic’s final prep for the Kentucky Derby was the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, once again jockeyed by Cristian Torres. He broke from the second post in a field of 8, finding himself towards the inside in 5th, while the odds-on favorite Renegade sat 7th another length back. Torres maintained a steady course, getting moved up a lane by the longshot Exosome but maintaining 5th place as the leader Redland Rebels set opening fractions of .23.25 and .47.48. Angling out in the middle of the turn, Silent Tactic started to pass the leaders with Renegade right in his hoofprints. Silent Tactic found the lead sweeping three-wide and heading for the wire as the pack fell away in the stretch, but Renegade, running down the center of the track, waltzed right on by Silent Tactic to win by 4 lengths with a final time of 1:49.3
Strengths and Concerns
Strengths: Silent Tactic’s most important feature is his consistency. Even when the trip isn’t perfect he finds a way to fire with his late kick and pass horses. His running style is one that’s been proven to work in the Derby with how hot the pace has been in the past few years. He’s been in-the-money each of his 6 starts, and he’s got a repertoire with his jockey. His biggest win also came in the biggest field he’s faced and he’s shown the ability to kick for home in both contested and slow paces.
Concerns: The issue is Silent Tactic has shown his hand already, and his best running hasn’t translated to beating the top contenders. Two 91 Beyers in his last two starts indicate he might be at his peak. When he’s been asked to dig in against stubborn horses in the stretch, he’s gotten the short end of the stick. He also got blown past by leading Derby contender Renegade and lost his final prep race by 4 lengths. The pace question hovering over this Derby makes it hard for a closer who’s been outkicked by another closer to have a clear shot. Additionally, he has a trainer with a lackluster Derby record and a jockey making his first start in the Run For The Roses.
Expert Opinions and Odds
Silent Tactic made a wide drift in the future pools, going from 17-1 in the 5th pool to almost double those odds, 32-1, in the final pool. Some experts see his consistency as a signal that should the favorites falter, Silent Tactic is the next horse in line to make the traditional late run in the stretch to battle the leaders. Others see his 4-length loss and twin-91 Beyers and bury him. He’s ranging anywhere from 5th to 13th on most peoples’ boards. I expect Silent Tactic to start where the experts put him at 32-1. What happens after that is a coin toss. He could drift slightly in odds, 35-1 feels like the right price on him with Casse’s Derby record and Torres as a new name in the saddle to the general public. However, his consistency might make him an attractive bet and I could just as soon see him at 30-1 or even as far down as 25-1. The line could go either way.
Conclusion
Silent Tactic has the advantage of being the right style of horse. He will probably want to close into a faster pace from the back of the field, and I would expect him to hover around 14-16th, potentially even further back, going into the clubhouse turn. He could sit closer, based on his run in the Arkansas Derby, but that seems unlikely. Torres will be looking to toe out for the late run but I think the jockey will need to keep his options open as they go down the backstretch. They’ll want the jump on Renegade and the other closers, but Renegade made Silent Tactic appear tied to a post last time they met. It may simply be that Silent Tactic is not as good as Renegade, and if that’s the case the ceiling for this colt has been hit already.
If, for whatever reason, other contenders falter or run into trouble, Silent Tactic will run his race and that’s close to being the most sure thing in the Derby. However, his talent might be at a deficit, and Casse might be settling for a career-best sixth place.
