By Eric Solomon
The king of Keeneland is coming to Louisville after a dominating win in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. He put up a monster Beyer Speed Figure for that win and could be on track to be the post time favorite in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Racing Record and Notable Performances
His first two starts in sprint races at Saratoga were rather unremarkable, although he faced two very good maiden fields in those races last summer. He shipped to Keeneland for the fall and tried two turns for the first time in a maiden special weight race there and he put on a show, beating 11 hapless rivals by 20 lengths. He ended his two year old campaign with a win in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, but there was a significant drop in his speed figures for that race. He made his three year old debut in the Tampa Bay Derby, where he battled for the lead , while in the three path for the better part of that race. He ran well enough to be the runner-up that day, but that was the right kind of effort to set him up for a career best performance in the Blue Grass, where he went on to win by 11 lengths.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: Gun Runner
- Dam & Damsire: Sky Dreamer (by Sky Mesa)
- Owner: Spendthrift Farm LLC
- Trainer: Brad Cox
- Jockey: John Velazquez
Gun Runner is a horse that continued to improve throughout his three year old season and he blossomed into a champion as a four year old. He was the sire of the 2022 Preakness winner, Early Voting, in addition to Grade 1 winners, Sierra Leone, Taiba, and Cyberknife (to name a few). His runners have fared well in dirt route races, winning 18% of the time. The dam has foaled some talented and precocious runners. While her runners have tended to prefer sprinting, the stamina influence from Gun Runner seems to shine with this colt.
Brad Cox is in the books as a Kentucky Derby winning trainer, but winning with Mandaloun certainly has to feel a little bit hollow since the disqualification of Medina Spirit that gave him the win happened months after the Roses were awarded. He’s one of the best trainers in the game, and his resume is growing rapidly. Cox won the 2021 Belmont with Essential Quality. He’s won the Kentucky Oaks three times and he has 10 Breeders’ Cup wins, scoring with Knicks Go in the 2021 Classic. Irad Ortiz, who is looking for his first Kentucky Derby Score, has been the regular rider for both this colt and Renegade for Todd Pletcher. Ortiz opted to ride Renegade, so Cox was able to secure the services of three-time Derby winner, John Velazquez. The 54 year old Velazquez rode both Animal Kingdom and Authentic for the first time when guiding them to victory in the Kentucky Derby in 2011 and 2020.
Final Prep Analysis
- Final Prep Race: G1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland (April 4th)
- Finish Position: 1st out of 7
- Final Time: 1:49.58
- Beyer Speed Figure: 106
He broke alertly in the Blue Grass, and Irad Ortiz rode him like he was the best horse in the race. He was three wide pretty much all the way around, patiently biding his time behind the leaders, in a menacing stalking spot. He advanced up to the outside of the longshot leaders without really being asked. He put his head in front and pulled away with ease when he was roused. The quality of the field was significantly affected when Paladin defected in March and Class President defected the day before the race. However, his performance was superb, and his Beyer Figure was five points higher than the career top for the nearest competitor.
Strengths and Concerns
Strengths: He’s a fast horse that looks like a stronger version of his two year old self. He likes to be forwardly placed and outside of horses. Barring a disastrous start, he figures to be in front of both Commandment and Renegade in the early stages of this race, which could be a significant advantage if the pace is moderate. If he can run back to his last race, I don’t think anyone is quick enough right now to go with him.
Concerns: I think the concerns are pretty obvious with this runner. After running his eyeballs out at Keeneland in October, he came to Churchill in November and ran a much slower, albeit a winning, race in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He didn’t seem to be traveling as smoothly over the course at Churchill as he was at Keeneland. He was a little short at Tampa when coming back in the Tampa Bay Derby in March, but that race clearly set him up to do what he needed to do at Keeneland in April. While you can make excuses for both races, he looked like a different horse in his two Keeneland starts than he did his four starts elsewhere. I think the other concern for me is that Irad Ortiz rode him to an 11 length win and he still opted to ride Renegade in the Derby. There are several factors that go into these decisions, so the rider switch is far from a deal-breaker. However, when you start talking about playing a favorite in a 20 horse race, I think it’s natural to start poking holes and looking for reasons not to bet this horse.
Expert Opinions and Odds
This is a top heavy Derby because outside of the big 3, Renegade, Commandment, and himself, there is a drop off in talent, and once you get past The Puma and Silent Tactic, that drop off gets pretty big. It’s reasonable to think that he could go into the starting gate at 3-1 or lower in this race. For me I think closer to 5-1 is where I’d want him if I’d play him to win. Knowing what he’s capable of makes him hard to leave off tickets, assuming that he’s showing all the right signs in the works leading up to the Derby in the next two weeks. For me, he’s a horse that I want to watch closely in those AM moves because if there are indications that he’s not as comfortable at Churchill, that may be enough for me to fade him.
Conclusion
At the end of the day, I think he might be the trickiest horse to navigate in this race. When you stack him up against the other major players, he has a better figure and the pace scenario figures to suit him better. From a visual standpoint, he did look nearly as comfortable on the course at Churchill as he has looked at Keeneland. The other horses from the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes have done little during this Derby Prep Season, so there’s a part of me that believes his win in that race was more of a function of the lack of competition than his ability. He’s 1-4 outside of Keeneland and 2-2 at Keeneland, winning his two starts there by a combined 31 lengths. For me, I think there’s at least a 50% chance that he’s going to bounce somewhat off his last race, and I do wonder if that was at least part of the reasoning behind Irad Ortiz opting to ride Renegade. While I’ve got to see how everything shakes out with the final field and the post draws, I’m leaning toward fading him somewhat at this point. If I’m seeing some strong moves over the main track where he’s traveling comfortably and full of energy, I could re-think that position.
