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What Speed Figure Did Danon Bourbon Run on the Beyer Scale?
Edition No. 15 · Friday, April 24, 2026 · 8 Days to Post
🇯🇵 How Fast Did Danon Bourbon Run?
On our latest Monster Pod, Alex Henry — ITM’s Japanese racing specialist — broke down Danon Bourbon’s Fukuryu Stakes performance using proprietary Netkeiba speed figure conversions. The number: a 97 on the Beyer-equivalent scale.
That’s the fastest Fukuryu Stakes in the last 20 years, by over a full second — on a muddy track that wasn’t doing him any favors. For context, the two previous Fukuryu winners who shipped to the Kentucky Derby: T O Password ran an 83-84 and finished fifth in the 2024 Derby. Luxor Cafe ran a 95. Danon Bourbon is meaningfully faster than both.
Alex also highlighted the internal fractions: the second furlong was run in 11.1 seconds, yet the race never fell apart. No other Fukuryu Stakes in the last two decades maintained that consistency from start to finish. Danon Bourbon has tactical speed, a Maxfield-over-Tapit pedigree that screams Churchill Downs, and a 3-for-3 record with a combined winning margin of 18½ lengths.
He might get beat. But it won’t be the distance that beats him.
👉 Watch the full Danon Bourbon Monster Pod with Alex Henry
👉 Watch the Wonder Dean + Six Speed Monster Pod with Michael Adolphson
📣 The Trainers Want to Move the Preakness
The biggest news from yesterday’s NTRA teleconference wasn’t about workouts — it was about the calendar. Three of the top Derby trainers all came out in favor of changing the Triple Crown schedule.
“I’m all for moving it. The health and the welfare of the horse comes first over tradition.” — Brad Cox
Cox added the sharp point that everyone misses: “You could run a horse back on quick rest and get a really good effort. The question is, what do you have after the quick turnaround?”
“I would predict it is gonna change, certainly before my career is over.” — Chad Brown
A significant evolution from Brown, who was initially against the idea.
“Tradition is tradition, but we live in a different world.” — Mark Glatt
This comes days after CDI acquired the Preakness IP for $85 million — a story we covered in Edition 13. Now that one company owns two of the three Triple Crown legs, the schedule might actually be moveable for the first time.
🎰 Preakness Future Wager Is Live
The Preakness Future Wager opened this morning and closes Derby Day. Renegade is the 10-1 morning line favorite — maybe short enough for a horse who could possibly skip the race even if he wins the Derby and seemingly certain to pass if he does not. Iron Honor is 15-1 alongside Commandment. Further Ado is shorter than both at 12-1.
We’ll have a full video breakdown of the Preakness Future Wager coming soon on the ITM YouTube channel.
👉 Full field and odds at preakness.com/futurewager
📌 Post Draw Tomorrow · ~2:15 PM ET
The next major moment. Twenty horses, twenty gates. The Kentucky Derby and Oaks post position draw takes place between races 3 and 4 on Opening Day at Churchill Downs. We’ll have the full draw, the morning line, and instant analysis across all ITM platforms as soon as it drops.
👉 Watch our Churchill Opening Day preview on the ITM YouTube channel
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🏇 Renegade Ships to Churchill Today
The favorite’s last work is done — an easy half in :50.84 at Palm Beach Downs yesterday in company with Powershift. Pure maintenance. Renegade vans to Churchill today and arrives just before Saturday’s deadline. Pletcher doesn’t see an advantage in training at Churchill the week before, preferring to keep his horse in familiar surroundings until the last possible moment. It’s the same approach he used with Super Saver.
📊 Pletcher’s Derby Horses Either Show Up or They Don’t
In case you missed it — we updated our Pletcher article with new figure data from Paul Matties. Of Pletcher’s 14 short-priced Derby starters with figure data, the five who ran their number all finished in the top three. The other nine regressed by an average of more than 20 points. There’s almost no middle ground.
👉 Read the full article with complete data table and 66-horse appendix
🎙️ New on the ITM YouTube Channel
Three new Monster Pods dropped this week covering the international contenders:
👉 Danon Bourbon with Alex Henry — proprietary Netkeiba figure conversion, Fukuryu Stakes breakdown, and the Maxfield pedigree angle
👉 Wonder Dean + Six Speed with Michael Adolphson — UAE Derby replay analysis and what five straight Japanese winners of that race means for the Derby
👉 KDBC Preview Show — John Gaspar with Matt McJunkin and Ryan Petrunyak break down strategy for horse racing’s newest major tournament ($300K guaranteed purse)
📄 Free Derby Contender Profiles — 14 Live
Fourteen free written profiles and counting:
👉 Renegade · Commandment · Further Ado · The Puma · Chief Wallabee · So Happy · Silent Tactic · Emerging Market · Fulleffort · Potente · Incredibolt · Albus · Pavlovian · Chip Honcho
🎧 PTF on the Equibase Inside Track
Ben Kudla and PTF sit down for a horse-by-horse GPS data analysis of the Derby field on the latest Inside Track podcast from Equibase. If you want to know which contenders stand out by the stride numbers, this one’s for you.
👉 Watch on the Equibase YouTube channel
📣 See PTF and JK Live — Next Week
Wednesday, April 29 — FIVE DAYS · 6:30–9:00 PM
Final Answers: The ITM Oaks & Derby Handicapping Event
The Manchester Hotel · Lexington, KY
Premium open bar, buffet, Friday & Saturday PPs included. $155. Get yours here.
Thursday, April 30 · 5:30 PM
Derby Inquiries with PTF and JK
The Galt House Lobby · Louisville, KY — Free and open to the public.
📋 ICYMI
👉 Yesterday’s D2D: “Bet the Preakness Before the Derby”
👉 Is Todd Pletcher Actually Bad in the Kentucky Derby? (ITM Original)
👉 Derby OddsWatch
👉 Free Bris Derby PPs (PDF)
👉 Free Equibase PPs for every contender
❓ Today’s Open Question
Danon Bourbon converted to a 97 on the Beyer scale from the Fukuryu Stakes. T O Password ran an 83 from the same race and finished fifth in the 2024 Derby. Is this the year Japan finally gets it done?
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📚 Previous Editions
Edition 14 · April 23, 2026 — Bet the Preakness Before the Derby
Edition 13 · April 22, 2026 — One Company, Two Jewels
Edition 12 · April 21, 2026 — “Looked Like a Sovereignty Work to Me”
