By Adam Discepelo
This horse requires no introduction as he will most likely be your post time favorite after an impressive finish in his most recent derby prep, the G1 Arkansas Derby. One of the most eye-catching finishes by a derby contender, he slotted himself third in overall points on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 125 total points.
Racing Record and Notable Performances
Renegade came into the derby with a 5: 2-2-1 record after rattling off back-to-back wins, first in the Sam F. Davis stakes in Tampa and followed that up with a more impressive win in the G1 Arkansas Derby. His win in the Arkansas Derby is what will most likely lock him in as the post time favorite as that is one of the key derby preps of recent.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: Into Mischief
- Dam & Damsire: Spice is Nice (by Curlin)
- Owner: Robert and Lawana Low & Repole Stables
- Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
The sire Into Mischief is a 7-time reigning leading sire and has sired 3 Kentucky Derby winners to date, with several contenders in this year’s Derby. The dam, Spice is Nice, is a graded stakes winner around two turns on dirt, by Curlin, with a strong stamina influence. Curlin is a prominent two-turn dirt influence. It doesn’t appear the 1 ¼ mile will be an issue for this horse with a good combination of speed and stamina from his pedigree.
Renegade will be piloted by 5-time Eclipse Award winning jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr. However, Irad is 0-for-9 in the Kentucky Derby and still chasing that elusive win on the first Saturday in May. His best finish to date was fourth in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. Of note, Irad did select to ride Renegade despite having previously piloted several other contenders in the field including Commandment and Further Ado, as well as Fulleffort’s most recent win.
Renegade is trained by Hall of Fame trainer, Todd Pletcher. Pletcher has a record 65+ Kentucky Derby starters with 2 wins, 2 second place finishes, and 4 third place finishes, though none of his last 13 starters have finished in the money.
Final Prep Analysis
- Final Prep Race: G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park (March 28th)
- Finish Position: 1st out of 8
- Final Time: 1:49.70
- Beyer Speed Figure: 98
Renegade won the G1 Arkansas Derby closing from near last to first to win, dominating by 4 lengths after closing into moderate fractions 23.1 and 47.4, making up seven lengths in the final half-mile with a final eighth in 11.84 seconds. Also of note, as per Timeform US Speed and Pace figures for Renegade in the Arkansas Derby at the ¼ pole 102, ½ pole 109, at ¾ pole 109, stretch 117 and finished with 119 speed rating showing his continue improving speed figure as the race went on.
Strengths and Concerns
Strengths: Renegade boasts excellent pedigree for the Derby, has a highly successful jockey trainer combo, and comes in after sporting the fastest closing fractions of any contender in the field appearing to be peaking just in time for the Derby.
Concerns: Some concerns for Renegade is that it is debated how strong of a field he beat in the Arkansas Derby. He will most likely be overbet based off that performance and with the Ortiz/Pletcher combo. The betting favorite has not won the Kentucky Derby since 2018. Being a closer in a 20 horse field does pose its own traffic troubles as well.
Expert Opinions and Odds
Renegade is the overall deserving favorite after back-to-back impressive wins, progressing speed figures, superb breeding and excellent jockey/trainer combo. He is currently listed as the favorite with 4-1 odds with international markets going as low as 3-1, which i would expect this horse to land with the famous names behind him (Ortiz, Pletcher, Repole).
Conclusion
Renegade has a huge chance to win the Kentucky Derby this year, however post positions still need to be drawn which could always have some impact. Ortiz will have to work out a trip but if he can get him clear late he will have every chance to win this year’s Run for the Roses.
