In terms of Derby Points, the Road to the 2027 Kentucky Derby begins at the site where it end. The Grade 3 Iroquois is the first race that offers valuable points for horses that have their sights set on running in next year’s Derby.
We’ve yet to see a Derby Winner that won this race as a two year old and none of the ten runners in the 2025 edition of this race made it to the starting gate on Derby Day. However, several useful runners have earned a victory in this race. Court Vision had an excellent career, which ended with a Breeders’ Cup win in 2011. Despite going on to be 13th in the Derby, he is the most accomplished runner to have won this race. Harlan’s Holiday went on to be a three-time Grade 1 winner after winning this race as a two year old. Not This Time had his career cut short by injury after finishing a very game second to Classic Empire in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. However, his legacy as a stud continues to grow each year.
This year, nine horses have been entered in this race, led by the top two finishers in the Bashford Manor, Blessed Flyer and He Is No Lie. However, the morning line favorite is a Bob Baffert trained horse, Salahudin, who was last seen winning the Juvenile Stakes at Ellis. Post time for this race is scheduled for 5:29 PM (EDT).
Churchill Downs, Saturday, Race 10: The Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes
21 Total Derby points (10/5/3/2/1)
1 – Caribbean Life (6-1 ML): This son of Life Is Good was a debut winner in a seven furlong race at Ellis Park last month. All nine runners in that race were first time starters, and none of them have run back since that race. He was the second choice in the wagering that afternoon in a race where the Godolphin favorite was an absolute no-show. He’s the second foal to race from an Arch mare who did most of her career work on the turf. The first foal did some racing overseas before having a not-very spectacular second act in the states. Life Is Good is off to a tremendous start as a stallion, with his dirt horses winning 30% of their races (10-33). His offspring is 0-2 in their first route race thus far though. Hes Steeling Mylady is one of those two horses, and he ran okay to be third in the Sapling Stakes last weekend. William Walden is a sharp young trainer and he excels with second time starters, winning 26% of the time (24-91). 21 of those 94 horses were going from sprints to routes, and five of those runners were winners. La Rascasse was a winner at first asking and then went on to win a stakes race here in her second start. He’ll need to be faster than he was in his debut, and I don’t love the rail draw for him, however, I think he’s a dark horse candidate in this race.
2 – Blessed Flyer (9-2 ML): This undefeated Dialed In colt already has a pretty interesting story. He was a $26K purchase that debuted in a maiden special weight race at Keeneland in April. Despite a modest pedigree, he had some quick workouts in the AM, which helped bring his 30-1 morning line odds down to 13-1 at post time. He was under a ride early on and was settled in the second flight on the turf. The leader broke down at the top of the stretch when it looked like he was going to pull away. This colt took advantage and was able to run down Super Saiyajin, late. He was entered in a Fasig-Tipton Sale in May and returned over 10 times the initial investment as he was purchased for $270K. Michael Tomlinson took over the training and the Bashford Manor at the end of the Churchill Spring Meet was a logical spot for him to make his next start. The betting public dismissed him as the second longest shot on the board. He Is No Lie and Hey Tuff Guy locked heads in a serious speed duel for a ½ mile. He Is No Lie put away the favorite in that race, but this colt was grinding away at the lead and was able to nail him on the wire. He’s sired by Dialed In out of an Overanalyze mare, so I don’t think the added distance will be an issue. Dialed In gets 19% winners with his horses routing for the first time. He earned a serious Beyer Figure for that race, and he has a good feel for where the wire is. Brian Hernandez is a Derby winning jockey and he rides this course very well year in and year out. I see him as a serious player in this race.
3 – Bearamour (30-1 ML): He was an easy maiden winner on debut at Colonial in July, scoring in gate to wire fashion. He tried stakes company at Ellis in his next start, racing in the Juvenile Stakes. He made the early lead, but when the real running began, he was no match for Salahudin. The dam has produced eight other runners, but none of them competed at top tier tracks. This horse feels like a pace factor in this race, but it’s hard to envision him hanging out in the later stages of this one.
4 – Admiral’s Order: (15-1 ML): This son of Midshipman will make his third career start in this spot this afternoon. He debuted in a race that was intended to be run on the turf at Ellis. He led every step of the way on a sloppy course in a race with seven rivals for him. He ran in the Juvenile Sprint Stakes at Kentucky Downs in his last start. He was away a bit slow from the gate and he was wide on the turn. He’s back on the dirt, but I’m not sure he really wants to go this far, especially at this point in his career. Brian Hernandez hops off in favor of Blessed Flyer. I’m not sold on his chances in this race.
5 – Real Goodbar (10-1 ML): He’s the only runner in the race that has a win at this one mile distance. His win came in his lone start, which was a maiden special turf race at Colonial in July. That was a professional win for a horse that was three wide early on. He settled in a nice stalking position before gliding to the front and pulling away from the group. I’m not sure how deep that field was that he beat and that win certainly came early on in the two year old season. Ken McPeek bypassed the stakes race at Kentucky Downs in favor of this spot, so I think he believes that the form he showed on the turf will translate to the grass. Horses sired by Authentic have done well on both surfaces and they’ve won 15% of the time when going from turf to dirt. He wouldn’t be a shock here, but I prefer others.
6 – Antivenom (6-1 ML): D J Stable LLC paid $850K for this son of Candy Ride, who has a very nice pedigree. He was a debut winner in a 5 ½ furlong at Ellis, which is certainly nice, however, when looking at his bloodlines, you’d have to think that he’s a horse that wants to go longer. He was forwardly placed in his debut where he battled early and then put away his rival. He was not entered in the Juvenile Stakes in August, so it appears that this race has been the target for Mark Casse. The dam was an unraced daughter of Tapit, but she was foaled by the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Distaff (named the Ladies Classic at the time) winner, Unrivaled Belle. That race was contested over this oval that year. The dam’s other foal to race broke their maiden when going one mile for the first time. Jose Ortiz has had an incredible year and seems primed to be the Eclipse Award Winning Jockey for 2026. I’m expecting that he’ll be forwardly placed, but maybe not trying to outsprint either Bearamour or He Is No Lie for the early lead. I don’t love that he has inside position on Salahudin, but I do think he is quicker from the gate, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Ortiz can beat him to a spot in the early stages.
7 – Salahudin (8-5 ML): For the first time in his career, Bob Baffert had a small string of horses based at Ellis Park over the summer. That served him well as his runners were 8-17 at that meet, including a pair of wins from this well-meant son of Uncle Mo. He was a workmanlike winner in a 6 ½ furlong maiden special weight race there in July. His effort in that race was validated when Jokester came back to break his maiden against a decent group in his next start. Mid American also debuted in that race and he won two straight times on the turf since that race, including a stakes win the other day at Kentucky Downs. This colt came back last month to run in the Juvenile Stakes as the heavy favorite and he looked much more comfortable on the racetrack. Florent Geroux wasn’t nearly as busy in the saddle, as the horse pretty much advanced smoothly on his own. I mentioned earlier how Bearamour was no match for him when the real running began. When watching that race again from the perspective of Salahudin, it was hard to miss how much bigger and stronger he looked compared to his rival. He has not been the best gate horse in his first two starts, but in a one turn, one mile race out of the long chute at Churchill, I don’t think a mediocre break will affect him negatively here. His dam did her best work on the turf, and grass racing could be in the cards for him down the road. However, he’s handled business on the dirt thus, so I don’t see Baffert making that switch in the near future. One challenge that he will have to overcome is getting a new rider. Geroux, who has given him a very nice foundation in his first two starts, was involved in an ugly spill on Thursday and he is going to miss some significant time. At the time of posting this, a new rider has yet to be named, but that is something to keep an eye on. He’s definitely a player in this race and probably the one to beat.
8 – He Is No Lie (5-1 ML): Doug O’Neill trains this well traveled son of Early Voting, who is making his 4th career start in this Grade 3 contest. He was an impressive debut winner at Santa Anita back in May, winning by eight easy lengths in a 4 ½ dirt sprint. That effort was good enough for O’Neill to put this ridgling on a plane and compete in the Bashford Manor here at Churchill. He engaged in a cutthroat speed duel with the favorite, Hey Tuff Guy. He was able to win that battle, but he couldn’t quite win the war as Blessed Flyer caught him late. He returned to the Golden State and was based at Del Mar for the summer. He faced four rivals in the Grade 3 Best Pal. He stumbled out of the gate and found himself not on the lead for the first time in his career. Hughes set the pace and he was in futile chase mode throughout that contest, where he finished a dull 4th. While the stumble was not the worst I’ve seen by any means, it was likely enough to take him out of his game. Hughes certainly flattered him as well as he came back to score in the Grade 1 Del mar Futurity last weekend. The dam was a multiple winner on both turf and dirt and her first foal won her first two races, but was not as effective at longer distances. The pairing with the 2022 Preakness winner Early Voting, could offer some stamina for him as these races begin to stretch out. My concern is that he clearly wants to be forward and he;s going to have to contend with some cheap speed here that I feel could easily soften him up. There are others that feel like the pace scenario of this race will suit them better.
9 – Real Gone (12-1 ML): Patrick Biancone brings this son of Olympiad up north after showing vast improvement when making his second career start on the dirt in his maiden victory last month. He debuted at the beginning of August in a 7 ½ furlong maiden allowance race at Gulfstream where he was generally flat, having minimal excuses for his effort. He came back in a six furlong sprint on the dirt there 20 days later where he looked much sharper. He sat just off the leaders and was willing and able when he was asked the question by Torrealba. I don’t think he beat much that afternoon, as the favorite was an absolute no show. The dam was a speedster and she’s been a good producer, foaling three stakes winners and several runners that won early when going one turn. When she was based in California, she was paired with horses to produce sprinters, but she was recently moved to Kentucky where she was paired with Maxfield. That resulted in a filly that was last seen winning the Indiana Oaks in July at Horseshoe Indy. The pairing with Olympiad here may prove to work well for stretching out, but there are others that interest me more in this race.
The verdict: 2-6-7
There are plenty of ways to go in this race and this would be a spread race for me if I play any of the multi-race wagers on this stakes heavy card in Louisville. I like that Blessed Flyer (#2)has been a total overachiever thus far on the racetrack. He comes in with an unblemished record and has scored under some varying circumstances in his first two tries. His last race Beyer figure is strong and I respect his versatility. As a son of Dialed In, I think he’s a candidate to improve at longer distances.
Antivenom (#6) is the recent maiden winner that interests me the most in this race. Skipping the Juvenile Stakes last month felt like an intentional move to get him to this race and the Breeders’ Futurity next month at Keeneland. He was professional when winning on debut, but I don’t think he’s ever going to be a horse that runs his best race at 5 ½ furlongs. I like the stretchout and love the confidence that Jose Ortiz has been riding with wherever he’s been showing up these days.
Salahudin (#7) feels like the one to beat in this race. Baffert’s three year olds have not really lived up to the hype over the last few years, so perhaps that was part of the impetus to try sending this $325K purchase to Ellis over the summer this year. He certainly handled his business there and absolutely looks the part on the racetrack. The water continues to get deeper and with the Baffert name, he figures to go off at a price below what I perceive to be fair market value. That being said, I’m not going to be leaving him off the mutli-race wagers here.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 153nd Kentucky Derby on May 1st, 2027. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
