The second of three Derby Points races for two year olds this fall at Churchill is the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes, which is contested at 1 1/16 miles. This race, along with the Rags to Riches Stakes for two year old fillies, are the showpiece races on the first of two “Stars of Tomorrow” cards. This is one of the newer races on the Derby Trail since it started in 2013. In 2018, Bob Baffert’s Improbable became the first winner of this race to make a name for himself. While ran well in spots on the way to the Derby, his four year old season was his best, winning three Grade 1 races en route to being named the Champion Older Dirt Male of 2020. In 2024, Sovereignty became the first winner of this race to go on to win the Kentucky Derby on this oval the following year. This year, we have a solid group of eight assembled for this race, with the favorite being a half brother to the 2024 Kentucky Derby winner, Mystik Dan. Post time for this race is scheduled for 5:25 (EDT).
Churchill Downs, Sunday 10/25/26, Race 10: The Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes
21 Total Derby points (10/5/3/2/1)
1 – Ritzy Rags (50-1 ML): This two year old son of Union Rags debuted in June at Presque Isle downs on the Tapeta where he finished near the back of the pack. He was given three months off before showing up here at Churchill in September in a $30K maiden claiming race going one mile on the main track. He got the victory in a race that was very slow. Destin Heath claimed him on behalf of Jeremy Haines that day and while he has some decent numbers with horses coming back first off the claim, this is a massive jump up in class. I’m not buying that he can compete at this level.
2 – Blessed Flyer (7-2 ML): This son of Dialed In showed up in a large maiden special weight race in the spring at Keeneland and scored on debut at long odds. That was one of the slower , 4 ½ furlong, two year old maiden races this spring in Lexington, but winning that race was enough for this one to be entered in a sale in May and sold for $270K, which was a significant upgrade from the $26K that his original owners bought him for as a yearling. Michael Tomlinson brought him here to Churchill where he competed in the Bashford Manor where he was dismissed as a 31-1 longshot. He came from off the pace to nail He Is No Lie on the wire that afternoon. He Is No Lie had a rough time out in California, trying to compete with Hughes in the Best Pal Stakes, but trying to beat a Baffert runner on his turf when you have a bad stumble out of the gate, is nearly impossible. He validated the form of the Bashford Manor when he was narrowly defeated by Baffert’s Salahudin in the Grade 3 Iroquois last month. This horse was supposed to go that day, but he came up with a minor injury and was forced to defect. He was working well going into the Iroquois and he’s worked well since coming back to the track in the morning. He has since been gelded, which might explain a three week gap in between his last two workouts. Offspring of Dialed In have won 18% of the time when routing for the first time. Blinkers are going on for the first time, but this is a negative angle with Michael Tomlinson’s runners. Over the last five years, horses that he has trained are only 1-40 when adding blinkers for the first time and the one winner that he did send out back in 2023 was debuting with blinkers on. There are some mixed signals with this one.
3 – Card Man (5-2 ML): There are no mixed signals with the success that Life Is Good has had with his freshman crop of runners. The first Grade 1 races for two year olds in North American come in September with the Hopeful at Saratoga and the Del Mar Futurity at Del Mar. He sired The Good Life, who was an easy winner of the Hopeful. His runners have won 16% of the time overall this year and one of those winners is this colt that Chad Brown will be sending out for the third time. He was a solid second place in his debut at Saratoga in August. He came back a month later to score on the Re-Opening Day card at Belmont in a nice, one mile maiden special weight race there. He’ll move to Churchill and try two turns for the first time, while also facing winners for the first time. He’s the first foal to race from an Arrogate mare that was winless in four career starts. I do think it’s an interesting move for Brown to send this one to Churchill, but it is worth noting that the Nashua Stakes, which traditionally has been the local New York prep for the Remsen Stakes, is not being run this year. Flavien Prat is in from New York to ride for Brown and while they’ve won 26% of their races together over the last five years, that number drops to 18% when they team up at Churchill. Prat has won 27% of the dirt races that he’s ridden for Brown on the dirt in the last five years, but at Churchill, he has ridden only dirt winner for Brown in 16 tries. He’s still a contender in this race.
4 – Mystik Bayou (9-5 ML): This horse has an absolutely wild story that could make him a compelling name if he can progress on the Derby Trail this season. He was sired by Wells Bayou, who is not a household name as a stallion. Wells Bayou found himself on the Derby Trail during the 2020 COVID year. After clearing the first level allowance condition in January, he went to the Southwest Stakes where he was second. His biggest victory came when beating 13 rivals in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby that year, an effort that in most years, would put him in prime position to run in the Kentucky Derby. However, the Derby was pushed back to Labor Day Weekend in that odd season and he had to settle for running in one of two divisions of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. He finished 5th to Nadal that year, but did not race again until 2021. He had some trouble staying sound and was retired after finishing third in an allowance race at Oaklawn in 2022. His stallion career did not go as planned as infertility issues plagued him. Of the mares he covered in 2023, only one, Ma’am, wound up in foal. That became more significant in 2024, as another foal of Ma’am, Mystik Dan, made a major name for himself when he got his nose down first on the wire in the Kentucky Derby. So the only horse to be sired by Wells Bayou, foaled by a mare who produced a Derby winner, made his debut at Saratoga in a loaded seven furlong race at Saratoga at the end of their meet. He finished 3rd that day, 15 lengths behind the winner, U.S.S. Valor, who went on to impressively score in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes after that huge effort. Sometimes horses that are well beaten in fast races come back to disappoint in their next start, but the opposite was true for him. He was an impressive winner in a 1 1/16 mile race at Belmont, finishing four lengths better than Tap Our Way, who was two lengths better than him on debut. While he has a handy score at this distance, it’s important to point out that 1 1/16 mile races at Belmont are one turn races, so this race will be his first try at two turns. Mystik Dan won four graded stakes races in his career, and three of them came on this course, also scoring in the Blame and the Lukas Classic Stakes in his four year old season. Jose Ortiz will be his third rider in as many starts, and like his half brother, Ken McPeek will train him for the same ownership group. Every single runner in this field will be trying two turns for the first time, so the playing field should be level. He’s a clear contender in this one.
5 –Very Gifted (20-1 ML): The other horse the Ken McPeek will send out is this Gift Box colt that broke his maiden on debut in a seven furlong race at Keeneland . Like Ritzy Rags, that maiden score in a $30K maiden claiming race which yielded a slow time (The race was technically at 7 furlongs and 184 feet, but still the 1:31:1 final time was very slow for a race at that distance). I do like first time starters that can pass horses and I will always contend that a horse that can win at seven furlongs on debut has some type of quality. However, going from a $30K maiden claiming race to a Grade 3 race, even as a two year old where there is more variability, would be the equivalent of a high school senior going directly to the NFL after graduation. Perhaps there is a small handful of athletes that could accomplish that feat and have success, but in most cases, the outcome would not be ideal. I’m not expecting this one to be able to pull this off.
6 – Jas (6-1 ML): Steve Asmussen is coming off a training title win at Keeneland, which is worth mentioning because in recent history, his runners have been a lot more successful at Churchill and Ellis than at Keeneland. He’ll be sending out this Justify colt, who will be trying the dirt for the first time this afternoon. He struggled on debut on a yielding course at Ellis when going two turns on the turf. He ran twice at Kentucky Downs this season, breaking his maiden on Opening Day and running second to How’s Al Today in the Juvenile Mile. He finished ahead of Agate in that race and that one came back to win the Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland in his next start. He’s a half brother to Hall of Fame, who was a dominating winner in his first career try on the dirt at two turns. That one went on to be a Grade 3 winner on the dirt. The dam was unraced and she’s sired by Giant’s Causeway. However, her sire was Street Sense, who loved the local strip here at Churchill, winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby on this oval. He’s the only horse from this dam to win in the turf, so I do think his game will translate to the dirt.
7 – Staunch (5-1 ML): Brendan Walsh was another trainer that had a strong Keeneland meet, finishing one win behind Asmussen atop the leaderboard. He’ll team up with Tyler Gaffalione, who was the leading rider at the Keeneland meet, to ride this son of Liam’s Map. He debuted at the end of the Ellis meet, finishing third in a six furlong sprint. He finished that race with a lot of energy after being in the back half of the field in the early stages of that race. He galloped out well after having to go wide while the pacemakers were dueling in a race of their own on the front end. He came back to score easily on this course in a 7 ½ furlong maiden special weight race at the end of the Churchill September meet. Once again, he finished that race with a lot of energy after running in 6th for the first half mile. He clearly has the look of a horse that is going to ascend at longer distances. The dam was only a maiden winner in her nine race career and her first three foals have not don’t much on the track. However, this was a horse that cost his connections $300K in May of this year, which tells me that he looked different than his siblings. I think he’s a definite contender as well in this race.
8 – Never a Doubt (20-1 ML): Carlos David saddles the most experienced runner in this field, as he’s expected to make his 5th career start this afternoon. He was a debut winner at Gulfstream in July, but after that big effort to win on debut, he struggled in his three starts in Kentucky. He was a distant 5th in the Juvenile at Ellis. Since then, he’s made two starts in N2L allowance races here and at Keeneland, and he finished mid-pack in both, never threatening the winners of either race. While he might improve at two turns, I think this is an ambitious spot to make that leap. He’s not going to be on my tickets today.
The verdict: 6-7-4
I think this race has five clear contenders and three longshots that are in some very deep water. There’s a little bit of New York form versus Kentucky form happening with Blessed Flyer (#2), Jas (#6), and Staunch (#7) representing the Blue Grass State and Card Man (#3) and Mystik Bayou (#4) shipping here from New York. Of this quintet, I think Jas (#6) is going to offer the best price and I think this colt has a decent chance to pull off an upset in this race. He’s making his first start on the dirt after three turf starts, but with Kentucky Downs positioned in that end of summer slot and the massive purses that are offered there, I understand why horses that might be better on the dirt will still try to aim for those races there on the grass. The Asmussen barn is red hot right now, and the fact that he skipped the Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland after racing twice at Kentucky Downs, tells me that the intention was to get this one on the dirt as opposed to taking a swing at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. As it stood, he would have likely been on the outside looking in with that field, so I like the thought process of giving him a little extra time and then taking a swing here. He’s a half to a Grade 3 winner at two turns on the dirt and horses sired by Justify are having success on every surface.
From his two starts, Staunch (#7) visually looks like the horse that is going to be really good at two turns. I loved how he finished up in both of his sprint races, scoring at the unusual 7 ½ furlong distance last time out with relative ease. He can pass horses, which is important as there could be horses that are tiring as all will be trying two turns on the dirt for the first time today. The fact that he was purchased for $300K in the late spring of this year tells me that this one is ahead of the curve developmentally.
I think the recipe is there for Mystik Bayou (#4) to be a huge favorite in this race, and while I respect him a lot, I’m not sure anyone should be around even money here. He’s got a cool story, and a brother that everyone knows. He ran against a freakishly fast two year old that has put up numbers that we haven’t seen in this country from a juvenile in a long time. He validated his effort in that debut race by running a bigger effort in his second try which came at this distance. McPeek’s two year olds are always dangerous this time of year and Jose Ortiz might be the hottest rider in the country over the last six months or so. There are plenty of things to like, but I’m not sure the value will be one of them.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 153rd Kentucky Derby on May 1st, 2027. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
