Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Saturday, 10/24/26 – By Eric Solomon

Closing Day at Keeneland is always a sad day, but it’s not time to say goodbye just yet with the Breeders’ Cup here next week. There are three stakes races on the docket today with the Bowman Mill, the Grade 3 Hagyard Fayette, and the Grade 2 Bryan Station Stakes. Racing will shift to Churchill tomorrow where they’ll race Sunday, Wednesday, and Thursday before giving Keeneland the spotlight on Friday and Saturday. Do take note that Irad Ortiz will be off all of his mounts today after breaking his ankle after getting dumped behind the starting gate here on Thursday. First post this afternoon is set for 1:00 (ET). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Closing day begins with a $20K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going one mile over the main track. This is a rough race on form. I landed on Cosmopolitan Lady (#5) who will be trying two turns on the dirt for the first time. She ran okay in her debt at Churchill in the spring, but she failed to run back to that race in her last three starts. The pedigree is there to handle the distance. Wangshu (#3) met a runaway winner here earlier in the meet when trying the dirt for the first time. She drops in class and could be a candidate to move forward in her second start of the meet. Main Mischief (#7) is the morning line favorite after just missing in her last start. That race wasn’t very fast, but neither are her rivals here. I don’t love her at short odds, but ths is not a great field, so I feel compelled to use her. 

Race 2:

A half dozen fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in this $80K N2L claiming race. Trusty Troutman (#6) is the pick for me here. She’s coming out of a good allowance race at Saratoga where she struggled after a very wide trip coming out of the Wilson Chute. Maria Louise was third in that race and she ran well to be second at that level here on Thursday. She’s making her third start off the layoff and while the first two starts haven’t been great, I do think she can rebound under the right circumstances. She drops in class, where she’ll be offered for a tag for the first time in her career, however, as a horse that only cost $33K, I don’t mind that drop. The logical alternative seems to be Majestical (#5), whose form has definitely been up and down. Her best race likely wins this one, and the fact that she fired a 46 flat bullet work at Churchill last week, tells me that she might be sitting on one of her better efforts. She ran okay behind a runaway allowance winner here in the spring. 

Race 3:

We’ve got another 1 1/16 mile dirt race here, this one a maiden special weight for three year olds and up. You did see too many horses debuting in nine furlong races in North American and it’s rare that they run well when they do. Mr. Tapps (#2) faced both El Tio (#1) and Top Drawer (#4) at this level in a 1 ⅛ mile race last month at Churchill. Top Drawer took initiative and set a moderate tempo while both El Tio and Mr. Tapps tracked. On the turn, Mr. Tapps made a bold move with El Tio trying to match strides. Mr. Tapps made the lead, but was getting leg weary as maybe he moved just a little prematurely. He was caught late, finishing third, but in front of both of his rivals. I don’t mind the slight cutback in this race and I do think he’s eligible to move forward in this race. The even money favorite on the morning line is Commitment Fund (#7) for Chad Brown and Tyler Gaffalione. He was a close second in both career races, both coming at Saratoga. That was a big race last time out, but the winner of that race was a big longshot. He did come back to win next out, but that was in a starter allowance race, as opposed to a first level allowance. He’ll be on some tickets for sure, but I’m not totally convinced. 

Race 4:

The first of two turf races on the closing day program is a N1X allowance contest for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. I was looking forward to backing Stubborn Lassie (#3) last week when she was entered in a race at this level, but the weather forced the race off the turf and she opted to wait for another day. She came back from a solid race at Kentucky Downs last summer with a bigger effort when going to Churchill where she finished third in a three horse photo when facing the boys. She was sidelined for 10 months and likely needed that first start back at Ellis in July. She went to Kentucky Downs and ran well in a seven furlong race, which was probably a little short for her. She’s back at a mile and making her third start off the layoff while adding blinkers for Peter Eurton. I think she’s sitting on a bigger effort in this race. There was a lot more speed signed on for the race last week, but there is much less in this spot. She has tactical speed and that has been necessary on this course this week so far. Stir (#7) is an interesting prospect in this race. She debuted in a one turn mile race at Kentucky Downs where she was last in the early stages. She passed every runner that day after breaking a bit slow. She stayed inside while others went outside and she made a bold move at the top of the stretch to pass several runners and then she was able to tip out and take the lead, all the while holding off a late runner with a ton of momentum. She is facing winners for the first time and this is a big step up, but I do think this filly has talent. Brad Cox has not had a good meet this season, but he has two runners in this race. The favorite is Sneakily (#12), who I’ll be trying to beat, but I do think Infinite Sky (#9) is worth using. She was second best in the Jessamine here last fall and while that wasn’t the best edition of that race, she did run a credible race in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf race. She made her three year old debut in July at Ellis and she just missed at this level against straight three year olds. She struggled a bit in her last two, finishing off the board in stakes company and off the board in an allowance race at Kentucky Downs. She was a winner there last year, but sometimes Kentucky Downs can be a tricky course. I can forgive that last effort, but I do think this is a prove it spot for her. 

Race 5:

There are many options in this $100K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. In certain spots at Keeneland, I really like playing smaller barns. The motivation to win on such a big stage is there and typically they’re sending horses that are showing signs that they’re doing well. Jerry Dixon Jr. is not a household name, and he’s only trained 76 starters up to this point in his young training career. Since he’s been training, only eight of those 76 starters were winners (11%). However, his first time starters are 2-6. He’ll send out Giovanni Alfonso (#3) for the first time in this spot. She worked at Monmouth for previous connections over the summer, but she was entered in a Fasig Tipton Sale in August of this year where she only sold for $9,500. Obviously, that’s not a great sign for a horse sired by Good Magic, who carries a six figure stud fee. She has worked well at Turfway since joining Dixon’s barn. The dam has foaled two first out winners and one horse that finished second on debut from five other foals. I’ll want to see how this one is warming up and looking in the paddock, but I don’t mind taking a shot with this filly here. Hard Champ (#1) debuted in a maiden special weight race at Ellis which was taken off the turf. She landed on the rail for that race, and she ran quite well to be a close third. She came back in a race on the grass at Kentucky Downs where she didn’t run a step. The winner of that race came back to score in her first try in allowance company here at Keeneland last week. While she underperformed on the turf, there was quality in that race and her dirt effort was significantly better. She’s worth considering in this spot as well. By La Rina (#10) has had a productive year despite not winning a race yet. She started five times this year and four of those races came on the dirt. She finished second in three of those four dirt races, narrowly missing at this level in her most recent start. She has been fairly consistent and she feels like the horse with the highest floor in this race, which definitely counts for something at this level. 

Race 6, The $250K Bowman Mill Stakes:

It’s been a strong meet for Steve Asmussen here at Keeneland this fall as he sits atop the leaderboard going into the last two days of racing. He’ll saddle the two shortest prices in this six furlong stakes for two year olds. Both Grand Yaupon (#2) and Booked (#5) were sired by Yaupon, who is turning into a very good sire of sprinters. Booked won the Grade 3 Sanford Stakes at Saratoga in July and Grand Yaupon won the Clever Trevor Stakes last month at Remington. After three sharp races to start his career, Booked has tailed off a bit in both the Saratoga Special and the Hopeful. He cuts back to six furlongs, which may be a welcome change, but I do think the price is going to be too short. Meanwhile, Grand Yaupon seems to be getting better, especially when you draw a line through the turf race at Kentucky Downs. His second place finish to  Salahudin was better than it looks on paper and that one flattered him when he won the Iroquois Stakes last month at Churchill. He’ll be the top pick with his stablemate as the backup in a race where it’s really hard to make a case for the other three runners. 

Race 7:

Two year old fillies sprint 5 ½ furlongs on the main track here. 16 are entered, but only a maximum of 12 starters will race. Wesley Ward’s barn has been heating up at the end of this meet and he’ll send out Lady Chanel (#8) for the second time in this race. She debuted in a tough maiden special weight race at Churchill back in May. That was a pretty solid race as the winner came back to win the Debutante Stakes in her next start and the runner-up came back to break her maiden and has since been graded stakes placed on the dirt and the turf. She’s a half to Defunded, who was a Grade 1 winner at 10 furlongs on the dirt. The dam’s runners have generally been better at two turns, but the speed influence from her sire. Jackie’s Warrior might be beneficial. At Full Sail (#12) draws the outside post for her debut. Dallas Stewart is capable with first time starters and her dam was a debut winner on this course 10 years ago. The works are solid and with this field, she might be flying under the radar. On deeper tickets, I’ll use Rainbow Lightning (#7) for Brendan Walsh. The dam’s first foal did nothing on the track, but Walsh is proficient with his debuting two year olds. The works are solid and Maclean’s Music continues to produce horses that ran well on debut, winning 12% of their races in dirt sprints and finishing in the money 42% of the time.

Race 8, The Grade 3 Hagyard Fayette Stakes:

13 runners filled the entry box for this Grade 3 contest for three year olds and up going nine furlongs on the main track. There are plenty of attractive options in this race with last year’s winner, Hit Show (#1)and the winner of the Grade 3 Ben Ali in the spring, Stars and Stripes (#8) in the mix here. However, I’m hoping to get close to the 6-1 morning line odds on Nevada Beach (#4) in this race for Bob Baffert. With Baffert as the trainer, you never know exactly what kind of price you’re going to get. However, this horse might get lost in the shuffle with this large field, at least in terms of the public’s perception. He missed Triple Crown Season last year, making his debut at Santa Anita at the end of April, as a result, he’s not really a household name. He did make a positive impression by winning the Los Alamitos Derby in June and then winning the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita in his next start. He tried the Breeders’ Cup Class last fall at Del Mar, but he was no match for the likes for Forever Young. However, he showed that he’s very dangerous in Grade 2 and Grade 3 races when winning the Native Diver and narrowly missing to his stablemate Nysos in the Laffit Pincay. The Saudi Cup experiment did not go well, and he was given a lot of time off after that. He tried to repeat in the Goodwood when making his first start off the layoff last month. He ran well, but came up a little short to Forged Steel that day. He shipped across the country and got a work in over at Churchill last week. I think his tactical speed is a valuable weapon in this large field and I think he fits nicely with this group. Silent Tactic (#10) found a tough spot to try facing older horses for the first time. However, I do think this horse has a lot of talent. He was second in the Arkansas Derby in the spring. He missed the Derby, but he came back to run a solid race to be third in the Jim Dandy. The Travers is his only blemish, as he was eased in that race. He looked no worse for wear when he came back to score in the Oklahoma Derby in his last start though. This is a real test for him, but it’s fair to point out that he’s never finished off the board with the exception of the Travers where something minor was amiss. The nine furlong trip in here suits him well. Stars and Stripes is also worth using in this race. He was good enough to win the Ben Ali here in April and he’s continued to improve for Bill Mott. The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile is a little short in distance for him, and I don’t think he quite stacks up with Forever Young or his stablemate, Sovereignty. He ran well to chase home Forever Young in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last month, but I do wonder if that big effort will take anything out of him. 

Race 9, The Grade 2 Bryan Station Stakes:

The final stakes race of the meet is this Grade 2 race for three year olds going one mile over the turf course. I think this race runs through Bottas (#4). He was very good last year before having a rough trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall at Del Mar. He came back and ran okay races in both the Pennine Ridge and the Belmont Derby, but he turned a corner in his third start off the layoff when he ran a big race to score in the Grade 2 National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes at the Spa. He followed that score up with a relatively easy win in the Gun Runner Stakes at Kentucky Downs. Tyler Gaffalione will be in the saddle for the first time, but he’s getting the keys to Cadillac here. Assuming there’s no issue at the gate, Conducted (#6) is going to go to the front as he’s done in his last four races. After winning his last two races as a two year old, he was transferred to Jose D’Angelo’s barn. He came up short in his return, but he ran a big race in the Gun Runner last month to be second to the top choice. I do think speed has an edge over this course this week, so if he’s going to turn the tables on the top pick, this might be the time to get him. Infiltrate (#5) also ran in the Gun Runner, but he was nowhere near the top two finishers that day. He came back to run a credible race in stakes company on the dirt at Churchill. He comes back to the turf today and his effort in the Secretariat at Colonial Downs in the summer was good enough to compete with this group. I wouldn’t be surprised if he outran his odds in this spot today.

Race 10:

We’ll put a bow on the 2026 Fall Meet at Keeneland with this optional $125K claiming/N2X allowance race for three year olds going 1 ⅛ miles over the main track. Sassmaster (#1) and Preside (#10) met on a sloppy track at Churchill back in June with Sassmaster narrowly winning that race. Since then, Sassmaster cleared the N1X condition in a nine furlong race at Saratoga, beating older rivals. He then went on to be third behind The Puma and Further Ado in the PA Derby. Both of those colts are expected to compete in the Breeders’ Cup Classic next weekend. Preside also went to Saratoga where he broke his maiden and cleared the first level allowance condition in nine furlong dirt races there. Preside had the better post when he faced Sassmaster and he had the better trip that day. However, Sassmaster was the better horse. Now Preside draws post 10, while Sassmaster gets the pole position on the rail. I prefer the favorite in this spot. Memory (#9) is an interesting alternative in this race. He showed promise when breaking his maiden in impressive fashion at Santa Anita in April. He ran well in a loaded race on Derby Day, but then he went off form. He was sold for $90K after being gelded and he was sent to Brendan Walsh. He looked good when clearing the first level allowance condition at Churchill in his first start for his new connections. He takes a step forward and could find himself as the lone speed if he’s able to clear from an outside draw. 

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.