By Michael Domabyl
Only recently was it made official that Intrepido would make the gate for the 152nd Kentucky Derby as he moved into the race after it was reported Stark Contrast would opt for the American Turf. He gathered his 38 Road to the Derby points through a variety of races throughout the trail.
Racing Record and Notable Performances
With six career starts, Intrepido is actually among the more experienced runners in the field. He broke his maiden at second asking over the Del Mar dirt and parlayed that right into a G1 win in the American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita. That victory generated some buzz around this horse heading into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he disappointed in that spot finishing a distant 5th as the 5-1 third choice. While he was a promising juvenile, his 3YO campaign hasn’t quite got off the ground. He finished second off the bench in the G2-Robert B. Lewis Stakes to the now sidelined Plutarch, but failed to fire in his most recent start, a dull 4th place finish in the G1-Santa Anita Derby.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: Maximus Mischief
- Dam (Damsire): Overly Indulgent (by Pleasantly Perfect)
- Owner: Dutch Girl Holdings LLC & Irving Ventures LLC
- Trainer: Jeff Mullins
- Jockey: Hector Berrios
Intrepido’s pedigree isn’t one that portends he’ll excel with the additional distance. While sire Maximus Mischief won around two turns, most of his best progeny have been better around one turn like Met Mile winner Raging Torrent and Iowa Sprint winner Glengarry. His dam was winless in five career starts and her best foal to race other than Intrepido was Amy Z who was better over shorter distances.
Intrepido’s trainer Jeff Mullins was a fixture in the Kentucky Derby during the early 2000’s after his charges won the Santa Anita Derby in three consecutive years between 2003-05. His best chance for the Derby was supposed to come in 2008 with early favorite and Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge, but that horse was injured prior to the race. While jockey Hector Berrios hasn’t yet ridden in the Derby, he’s a rider on the rise posting his best career totals for wins and purse earnings in 2025.
Final Prep Analysis
- Final Prep Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita (April 4th)
- Finish Position: 4th out of 7
- Final Time: 1:49.99
- Beyer Speed Figure: 85
Sent off as the 7-2 third-choice in the race, Intrepido broke well, but had to be taken back off the pace in an attempt to save ground. That effort didn’t pan out as Intrepido was kept out in the four-path throughout. He started to make a bid entering the stretch, but the wide journey took its toll on him as the top two in the race ran away from the field down the lane. Ultimately, he was nipped at the wire by longshot Vitruvian Man finishing a non-threatening fourth beaten nearly 10 lengths.
Strengths and Concerns
Strengths: Six months ago, it wouldn’t have been an absurd thought that Intrepido could be squarely among the top Derby contenders. Unfortunately, he couldn’t crack the 90 Beyer in his three starts since and most of the shine on his profile has worn off. He does appear to be working better coming into the Derby as a brisk 47.20 4f breeze on April 19th gave Mullins the confidence he needed to ship across the country for this assignment.
Concerns: There’s serious concern that Intrepido took advantage of a weak California juvenile contingent to notch a G1 win last fall. He doesn’t seem to have progressed from his 2YO form and would need an effort significantly better than his lifetime best to compete in this spot. Also, I’m not sure he’ll be at his best at the 10f distance.
Expert Opinions and Odds
The overseas markets have this colt projected as one of the longest shots on the board at upwards of 50-1. He might come down a touch from those odds as he gets confirmed for the race, but should remain a rank outsider. Reminder, the recent trend is that win odds at the high end of the market have been compressed (Rich Strike effect). If you like this colt, I’d suggest playing around with him in the multi-race wagers including the special two-day bets that are on offer.
Conclusion
While there have been more shocking results in the Derby than Intrepido would be, it’s difficult to foresee him making a significant impact on this year’s edition. His best chance would be to take up a spot towards the middle-to-rear of the field and pass tired horses late. Even with that, rounding out the superfecta would be his ceiling with a midpack finish the most likely outcome.
