By Eric Solomon
Steven Asmussen has won just about every major race on dirt in North America, but the Kentucky Derby continues to elude him. He’s been close a few times and he’s had horses that have won both the Preakness and the Belmont, but he’s still waiting for that blanket of roses to be draped over one of his horses. After a dull effort in the Louisiana Derby, this son of Connect needed some help to draw into the Derby Field. However, he’s now in (if his connections want to run) and will be a longshot in this year’s Run for the Roses.
Racing Record and Notable Performances
He debuted at Keeneland in the fall and he broke his maiden in his next start at Churchill when going a one turn mile in the mud. Asmussen shipped him to New Orleans where he danced every dance on the road to the Derby there. His Gun Runner score when going two turns was a solid, but unremarkable effort. He wasn’t really settling early when Paco Lopez asked him to stalk the pace. He hung around though and was able to pick up the pieces when Crown the Buckeye faltered. He broke slowly while drawing a wide post for the Lecomte. While that race wasn’t particularly fast, I do think his 4th place effort there was better than it looks on paper. His best career race came when Luis Saez took over and put him on the lead in the Risen Star Stakes. He controlled the tempo and led most of the way. Paladin, who was considered to be on the short list of serious Derby contenders at the time, battled hard and was able to finally wear him down late. That effort was good enough for him to go off as the 2-1 second choice in the Louisiana Derby. That effort was the worst start in his career though. Pavlovian took the race to him early and he was caught wide despite a friendly post position. There was not really an excuse for such a dull performance, but it does have me considering how much farther than nine furlongs he wants to go.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: Connect
- Dam & Damsire: Miss My Rose (by Magician)
- Owner: Leland Ackerley Racing, LLC, Sherwood, James, Shupe, Jode and Cilia, John
- Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: TBD
Connect is a solid sire who gets 15% winners from his dirt routers. His best horse has been Rattle N Roll, who won the Grade 2 Clark. The dam was a stakes winning sprinter, but she was sired by the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner, Magician, so there could be some pedigree influence there.
Asmussen is 0-28 in the Derby, but he has finished second three times. Luis Saez is committed to ride Commandment in the Derby, and Jose Ortiz will be riding Golden Tempo. Paco Lopez and Keith Asmussen have also ridden this horse and as of now, neither has a commitment for the Derby.
Final Prep Analysis
- Final Prep Race: G2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds (March 21st)
- Finish Position: 5th out of 9
- Final Time: 1:55
- Beyer Speed Figure: 73
It’s hard to get excited for a Derby Horse that turns in his worst career performance in their last start before the big race. Nothing from that race was worth mentioning, but his Risen Star two back was better. There is some recent precedent for this, as Mandaloun was awful in the Louisiana Derby before running a big race to cross the finish line second in the 2021 Kentucky Derby .
Strengths and Concerns
Strengths: He is a good horse when he gets to the lead, and there are not a ton of other horses that want to be forward. If his connections do choose to have him compete, I do think he’ll be in the first group of runners going into the turn. He battled hard against Paladin, who was considered to be one of the top three year olds at the time of the Risen Star. If that horse shows up here, he could make things interesting when they turn for home.
Concerns: His last race was not good and there was no visible excuse other than Pavlovian, who broke from the rail, took it to him from the start. If he couldn’t handle that when facing a weaker field with free opponents, how is that going to work when he has 19 other horses to deal with? While he was competitive at nine furlongs two back, the fact that he faltered late when going 9 ½ furlongs doesn’t bode well here where there are some really good horses that figure to be finishing fast.
Expert Opinions and Odds
He’s a tough sell for me, but he’s going to be a big price in this race. His odds should be north of 40-1 when all is said and done. I would have liked to have seen a better effort in the Louisiana Derby, because at the end of the day, I don’t think that field was all that great. While I can make a case for Pavlovian who was second in that race, it’s hard for me to make a case for this colt. I think Pavlovian showed he’s a better gate horse and I feel he’s been trending up coming into this race, while this colt is still trying to figure things out.
Conclusion
At the end of the day, unless I’m seeing something remarkable next week, he won’t be on my tickets. While the pace scenario might be friendlier for him this year when compared to past Derbies, I think there are other front-runners that are better than him right now. I also don’t like that Asmussen was very non-committal about running him in the Derby once the spot for him opened up. I think if he were doing better in the morning, Asmussen would have rubber-stamped his entry into this race.
