By Eric DeCoster
Incredibolt brings one of the most unique resumes to the 2026 Kentucky Derby. A graded stakes winning juvenile with plenty of promise heading into the year, in two starts this season he has looked both brilliant and facile. He comes out of an untraditional prep race, with untraditional spacing to the Kentucky Derby, and carries the weight of two Kentucky Derby rookies into the big dance. However, the best version of Incredibolt is one that could make him a sneaky outsider in this year’s Run for the Roses.
Racing Record and Notable Performances
Incredibolt was well regarded from the outset and was bet down to favoritism for his career debut. In a 6 furlong race at Ellis last August, he traveled near the back before coming with a belated run that suggested he would appreciate more ground in his future. He delivered on that with a solid two length victory when stretched out to a mile at Churchill Downs. In his next start, the G3 Street Sense S. going two turns under the Twin Spires, he closed from last into a slow pace to score a decisive victory in what would be the final race of his juvenile campaign.
Expectations were high for Incredibolt as he made his 2026 debut in the G3 Holy Bull S. at Gulfstream. But early on in that race it was clear he was not traveling comfortably, and as they made their way into the far turn he was spent, beaten 25 lengths in the end. Trainer Riley Mott had no explanation for the defeat but vowed that a better version of this horse was out there. One might have thought he wouldn’t persevere on the Derby trail, however Mott decided to try his luck in the Virginia Derby, which Incredibolt won by a convincing 4 lengths. The 50 points he earned in that race to go along with the 10 from his Street Sense victory firmly planted him in the Kentucky Derby.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: Bolt d’Oro
- Dam & Damsire: Sapphire Spitfire (by Awesome Again)
- Owner: Pin Oak Stud LLC
- Trainer: Riley Mott
- Jockey: Jaime Torres
Bolt d’Oro was a brilliant racehorse during his career who is also a Kentucky Derby alum himself. He has proven a very capable stallion through his first few years at stud, siring 9 graded stakes winners. His progeny are fairly versatile but are most often best at intermediate distances around 8-9 furlongs. Incredibolt will represent his first ever starter in the Kentucky Derby.
Incredibolt seems to be a horse who can run all day and that likely comes from his dam’s side. While not much of a runner herself and not a stellar producer to this point, Sapphire Spitfire comes from a tried-and-true distance family. Her sire, Awesome Again, is one of the best influences of stamina of his generation. Accelerate, Keen Ice, Highland Falls, and Next are just a few of the top dirt routers that Awesome Again’s daughters have produced.
Riley Mott will be making his Kentucky Derby debut in writing only. He has been here multiple times with his two-time Kentucky Derby winning father, Bill Mott, even accompanying him throughout the week in the leadup to Sovereignty’s win last year. However, 2026 will be the first time that his name will be the program as the trainer of record. Mott hit the ground running after taking his trainer’s license out in 2022. He was very successful through the first two years of his career, compiling a combined $3.5 million in earnings, before truly breaking out in 2025. He won the first graded stakes and Grade 1’s of his career with World Beater in the Saratoga Derby and Argos in the Summer Stakes. Argos would also end up being his first representative in a Breeders’ Cup race when he participated in the Juvenile Turf last November. This year has only furthered his rise as he will also saddle G2 Wood Memorial winner, Albus, in the Derby in addition to Incredibolt.
Jaime Torres is set to steer Incredibolt in this year’s Kentucky Derby. He opted to ride him over Wood Memorial winner, Albus, who he also rode to victory in that race. Torres is best known for his victory aboard Seize the Grey in the 2024 Preakness Stakes. While he is yet to fully establish himself among the top riders in America, you certainly can’t doubt his ability to show up in the big races given he won in his Triple Crown debut a few years ago.
Final Prep Analysis
- Final Prep Race: Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs (March 14th)
- Finish Position: 1st out of 10
- Final Time: 1:47.3
- Beyer Speed Figure: 88
In the Virginia Derby, Incredibolt was cutting back to one turn following back-to-back two turn races. Despite the configuration, he actually found himself closer to the pace as he’d ever been in his career. He traveled in the second flight throughout the race, buried in a pocket behind the leaders. He was still bottled up behind horses all the way around the turn and to the stretch, but when Jaime Torres found a seam inside of horse around the furlong pole, Incredibolt exploded up the rail. He drew away to a no-doubt 4 length win while only being tapped by the crop once or twice. The professionalism he showed in rating behind rivals is not easy for most horses, and the fact he buried the field the way he did shows the sign of a classy horse.
There were some negatives to the win. His big effort only yielded an 88 Beyer, which is the second slowest among last out prep race winners in this race, only better than the Wood Memorial. The quality of competition from the win was also a suspect. None of those nine runners made it to the Derby, and the few of which that have already started back from the Virginia Derby have performed poorly.
Strengths and Concerns
Strengths: Wins at Churchill Downs are always a positive for any contender and Incredibolt is one of four horses in the 2026 Derby with a win over this surface. In fact, he’s the only horse with multiple wins at Churchill! He has also been incredibly impressive to the eye in his three career wins, leaving little doubt who the best horse was on the day. Incredibolt’s adaptability is also something worth noting heading into this race. When he won the Street Sense last year he had to close from last into a slow pace, but then last time out in the Virginia Derby he was able to sit just off the leaders and still come with a bold finish.
Concerns: The Holy Bull dud is, and might always be, the biggest knock on Incredibolt’s resume. Not even Riley Mott can explain what happened that day. On one hand, someone can look at that as a good thing and it is perhaps a one-off anomaly. As a bettor, however, it’s fair to look at that race and wonder if he’s capable of a similarly dull effort on Derby day. Incredibolt is also much slower than his competition when it comes to speed figures. His Beyers leave plenty to be desired and don’t fall in line with the patterns of past Derby winners leading into the race. He also will have to have to overcome some history. No Derby winner has ever won the race with as much as 49 days between their last race and the Derby, and he would be the first horse since 1974 to exit a one turn race and win the Derby in their next start.
Expert Opinions and Odds
Incredibolt will be right in the middle of the odds board come Derby day. He has consistently been held anywhere from 20-1 to 25-1 on projected lines and in overseas books. There are plenty of people who have thrown his name out as a live longshot worth playing, however that shouldn’t impact his odds too much. It would be very surprising if he went off at anything less than 20-1, but don’t expect him to float much higher than that.
Conclusion
Incredibolt is one of the most polarizing horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby. There are elements of him that seem brilliant, like his impressive victories at Churchill Downs and his electric score in the Virginia Derby. There are also parts of him that suggest he has no chance in this race, like his slow speed figures and unconventional final prep. If you trust your eyes and like what you see, then there’s no reason not to take a swing and believe this longshot can win the Kentucky Derby. He is still in the process of reaching his full potential, and if he is able to improve from his last start to this one, then he’ll not only factor in the Kentucky Derby–he might just win the whole damn thing.
