By Michael Domabyl
This expensive colt is Derby stalwart Bob Baffert’s best hope in 2026, but he’s not getting mentioned in the headlines coming in as it hasn’t been a banner year for the barn. With 100 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, Potente ranks 10th punching his ticket to the race with a win in the San Felipe.
Racing Record and Notable Performances
Potente’s racing career began just 13 weeks before the First Saturday in May as he defeated four rivals in a 6f maiden special weight at Santa Anita on January 31st. He broke sharply that day and kept main rival Captain Shreve at bay throughout en route to a 79 Beyer speed figure. That relatively modest speed figure was likely the reason he was dismissed at 8-1 in the G2-San Felipe Stakes in his next start, but he passed that two turn test lengthening his stride late to run down Robusta by a head. Off that encouraging performance he was sent off as the 6-5 favorite in the Santa Anita Derby, but was defeated by fellow Kentucky Derby contender So Happy.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: Into Mischief
- Dam (Damsire): Sweet Sting (by Awesome Again)
- Owner: Speedway Stables LLC
- Trainer: Bob Baffert
- Jockey: Juan Hernandez
You couldn’t hand pick a better sire for a Derby contender than top stallion Into Mischief. While lightly raced on the track, he’s been a menace in the breeding shed siring three Derby winners including last year’s winner Sovereignty. He’s also the sire of the top two contenders in this year’s edition in Renegade and Commandment proving the worth of his lofty $250k stud fee. Potente’s dam is the turf stakes-placed Sweet Sting who hails from a stamina-filled Stronach Stables line. This strong pedigree led to Potente selling for $2.4 million as a yearling.
His trainer Bob Baffert needs no introduction as he’s won the race a record six times. His charge Medina Spirit was his seventh trainee to cross the wire first in the 2021 Derby, but was ultimately disqualified due to the presence of a banned substance which resulted in a suspension from 2022-24. He returned to the race last year with Juvenile champ Citizen Bull who finished 15th. Potente is slated to be ridden by top California circuit jockey Juan Hernandez who will be aboard for his first ever Kentucky Derby. Hernandez was slated to ride in the race in 2023, but his mount Skinner was scratched before the race. He has ridden Potente in each of his last two starts.
Final Prep Analysis
- Final Prep Race: Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita (April 4th)
- Finish Position: 2nd out of 7
- Final Time: 1:49.99
- Beyer Speed Figure: 95
The California contingent of Derby contenders has left something to be desired all year, but Potente entered the marquee regional prep as the leader of the pack. He was able to get to the lead early but was hounded on the front end throughout by Robusta. He put away that rival and turned for home slightly in front but an oncoming challenge from So Happy overwhelmed him in the lane as he checked in a clear second 2.75 lengths behind the winner but almost 7 lengths clear of third.
Strengths and Concerns
Strengths: There still may be some upside for this lightly-raced colt as he enters the Derby in just his fourth career start. He proved he doesn’t need the lead with his win in the San Felipe and Baffert knows how to get them ready for this event. He’s got an extremely nice pedigree and put forth an improved solo breeze last week at Santa Anita.
Concerns: On most commercial figures, he hasn’t run a race fast enough to hit the board and was no match for So Happy in the Santa Anita Derby with that runner outside the top five choices. While Bob Baffert is always dangerous in this race, his Derby contingent this year has disappointed in most spots.
Expert Opinions and Odds
The overseas markets have this colt projected as around the median price in the race. There’s not much buzz surrounding him at the moment so I think he’s one that will likely slip through the cracks in the wagering market and end up in the 20-1 to 25-1 range
Conclusion
While there are things to like about this runner, the lack of depth in the west coast division of 3YO’s this year is cause for concern. He’ll have to turn the tables on So Happy who beat him on the square in the Santa Anita Derby while also stepping up against those exiting the more fancied preps and overcoming any international runners who look live. He could get lost in the shuffle on the win pool, but that odds board is always compressed so value is hard to come by in the middle-to-bottom of the market.
