By Jackson Muniz
So Happy enters this year’s Kentucky Derby as the best hope from the west coast, having just won the Santa Anita Derby. He’s 2 for 3 this season, with a disappointing run in the San Felipe sandwiched between a couple of impressive stakes victories in the San Vincente and Santa Derby. He is currently in 4th place on the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard with 115 points, with the vast majority of those earned in his most recent victory. The key to this horse thus far has been to sit just off the pace. He has won all three races where he’s been tracking the pace, with his lone defeat coming when he dueled on the lead. There’s an excellent chance he’ll be tracking the pace in the Derby.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: Runhappy
- Dam & Damsire: So Cunning (by Blame)
- Owner: Norman Stables LLC and Saints or Sinners
- Trainer: Mark Glatt
- Jockey: Mike Smith
So Happy’s pedigree doesn’t exactly scream 10 furlongs. Obviously Runhappy was superbly talented, but all his best work came sprinting and he really struggled in his only two efforts around two turns. And it’s been much of the same with the vast majority of his prodigy up to this point, many of them excel sprinting/middle distances. There’s a little more distance on the damside with So Cunning being a daughter of BC Classic winner Blame. Still, So Cunning only won sprinting and the one sibling to win has also been best at shorter distances.
Mike Smith will be in the irons for the Kentucky Derby and he is one of the most experienced riders in the history of the sport. He has two victories in the Derby with Giacomo in 2005 and Justify in 2018. I’ve always felt like he’s at his best when he’s on a horse that can be forwardly placed, and So Happy is expected to be in the first third of the field come raceday. Meanwhile, Mark Glatt is on the opposite end of the spectrum as this will be his first Kentucky Derby starter. He is one of the top trainers on the SoCal circuit and while he’s mostly known for training one turn horses, So Happy could be the exception.
Final Prep Analysis
- Final Prep Race: G1 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park (April 4th)
- Finish Position: 1st out of 7
- Final Time: 1:51.87
- Beyer Speed Figure: 100
I have mixed feelings on So Happy’s performance in the Santa Anita Derby. On one hand, he got a perfect trip when he was able to sit third behind dueling leaders while being in the clear throughout. When the time came, he grinded down Potente and put away that rival in the final furlong. I think it’s fair to say Potente had the tougher trip of the two. It’s also fair to question how good the competition of that race really was. It certainly wasn’t as strong as the Florida Derby, but was it really weaker than races like the Arkansas Derby or the Bluegrass (not including the winners of those races)? The biggest feather in his cap is how fast this race came back on the clock. The Beyer Speed Figure came back 100, which puts him right there against the best of the best in the Derby field (besides Further Ado’s 106 at Kee), while Timeform has that race at 121, the second fastest speed figure entering this year’s Derby (and just one point behind Further Ado).
Strengths and Concerns
Strengths:
He has the speed figures to be competitive in this race and it’s not like he’s a one-number horse
His tactical speed should play well in this year’s Derby, as there’s a chance there won’t be as much speed as we’ve seen in the past. Regardless of whether the pace is fast or not, he should find himself in a good spot and he’ll get the jump on several of the main contenders
Concerns:
The distance is still a question I have for this horse. Yes, he won the SA Derby in impressive fashion, but it came over a suspect field that was likely full of distance-challenged rivals
What happened in the San Felipe? It wasn’t the easiest trip you’ll see, but he still should have run better than he did. Tough to know which version of him we’ll see on the first Saturday in May
Expert Opinions and Odds
I do think So Happy is an interesting longshot candidate that could be used everywhere underneath and in all the horizontals. He does have questions to answer, but he has proven his best effort is capable of getting him into the mix against this year’s crop. His tactical speed could also be a major asset, depending on which of the outsiders ends up running. I would think about him as a win candidate if we can get around 20-1, but that seems unlikely.
So Happy will likely fall in the second tier of contenders when it comes to the betting, and he’ll probably be amongst the higher prices within that group. Early projections have him going off at somewhere between 14-1 and 20-1. I do wonder if his name + the storyline of Dena Glatt’s recent passing could lead casual fans to betting So Happy at the windows and maybe he comes off a little lower than expected.
