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“Looked Like a Sovereignty Work to Me”
Edition No. 12 · Tuesday, April 21, 2026 · 11 Days to Post
🏇 The Wallabee Work
Seemingly every year at Derby time there’s a workout that gets people talking and keeps people talking. Often there is signal in it, and sometimes it can even have an effect on the market — that could be bad news for people thinking they might get a bigger price on Chief Wallabee.
Bill Mott’s colt worked five furlongs in 1:00 Monday morning at Churchill Downs with jockey Junior Alvarado aboard, wearing blinkers for the second time. The fractions were sharp — :24.80, :36.60, :48.20 — and the gallop-out was strong: six furlongs in 1:12, seven-eighths in 1:26.60. He worked in company with recent maiden winner Gilded Bandit during the special 7:15-7:30 Derby training window.
Mott was more than pleased. He told DRF’s David Grening: “I thought it was very good, extremely good. Looked like a Sovereignty work to me when he worked two weeks before the Derby.”
That’s the trainer who won this race last year comparing this horse to that one. In the same window. On the same track.
Alvarado echoed the sentiment: “He was pretty smooth. We were just making sure he was serious with the blinkers. He was very kind, and he finished up the work just as we were expecting. Very strong today,” per BloodHorse.
Our clocker Chris Cupples confirmed the visual — Chief Wallabee looked exceptional. Mott doesn’t expect much more from him before Derby Day. One more breeze next Sunday or Monday and he’s ready to go.
The work generated serious buzz across racing Twitter — DRF ran it as a headline, and the hype got to the point where our friend Matt Dinerman tweeted sarcastically that he was “shocked” he hadn’t seen a single post about it. At 12/1 to 16/1 on Oddschecker, that price may not last.
🎬 Every Derby Winner of the 21st Century, Ranked
And now for something completely different. We don’t do a lot of trend following over here at ITM — we tend to march to the beat of our own drummer — but when it comes to YouTube ranking/tier lists and the Kentucky Derby, well, we just couldn’t resist.
I had a really fun chat with Duke Matties of dukespicks.com yesterday where we ranked all the Derby winners of the 21st Century. There are some VERY controversial takes in here. Watch and let us know what we got right and wrong in the comments.
And head over to dukespicks.com to watch the special live stream we are doing Derby week. The code ITM10 gets you a discount.
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📄 Free Contender Profiles Are Dropping
We’re publishing free written profiles on every major Derby contender — analysis, speed figures, trip notes, and what to watch for on May 2. Four are live now:
👉 Renegade · Commandment · Further Ado · The Puma
More dropping daily.
🔄 Three More Out, Chip Honcho All But In
The field continues to shrink. Nearly is out — heading to Centennial Farms for rest after training unsatisfactorily in recent weeks. Bravaro is out — targeting the Mike Lee Stakes at Saratoga in June. Grittiness was removed from consideration Saturday.
That’s four defections in three days (Ottinho, Nearly, Bravaro, Grittiness). Chip Honcho, sitting at 49 points, is all but certain to make the field. If Stark Contrast goes to the American Turf and Iron Honor skips, Intrepido gets in too.
Also today: Sovereignty shipped into Mott’s Churchill barn following his Oaklawn runner-up. Incredibolt arrived from Palm Meadows this morning. Emerging Market ships from Payson Park. So Happy ships from Santa Anita. Danon Bourbon arrives in America.
Golden Tempo note from our clocker: Chris Cupples says Golden Tempo surprised Friday at Keeneland with a big step forward — worked with an Englishman and went much easier than previous works. “He looked awful in works prior — had to be pushed along nearly the entire way. Up until Friday.” Something clicked. Worth watching.
📣 See PTF and JK Live in Lexington & Louisville
Wednesday, April 29 · 6:30–9:00 PM
Final Answers: The ITM Oaks & Derby Handicapping Event
The Manchester Hotel · Lexington, KY
Presented by Medallion Racing. Premium open bar, buffet, and a live taping of the Final Answers show with JK (Fox Sports 1), PTF, Phillip Shelton (Medallion Racing), and Maggie Wolfendale-Morley (Fox Sports/NYRA). Your ticket includes Friday and Saturday PPs. $155 — tickets won’t be available for long. Get yours here.
Thursday, April 30 · 5:30 PM
Derby Inquiries with PTF and JK
The Galt House Lobby · Louisville, KY
The questions we need to answer before the Run for the Roses. Free and open to the public. Book your Derby week stay at The Galt House and save $500/night.
📋 ICYMI
👉 Yesterday’s D2D: The Puma’s Hidden Bullet
👉 PTF & Chris Larmey discuss “Betting on Horse$”
👉 Kornacki breaks down Derby prep race data (NBC Sports)
👉 Bill Nack: Champion Storyteller (ABR)
👉 Free Bris Derby PPs (PDF)
👉 Derby OddsWatch — UPDATED
❓ Today’s Open Question
Mott compared Chief Wallabee’s work to Sovereignty’s. Is this the year he goes back to back — or is the hype getting ahead of the horse?
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📚 Previous Editions
Edition 11 · April 20, 2026 — The Puma’s Hidden Bullet
Edition 10 · April 19, 2026 — Chief Wallabee Is In
Edition 9 · April 18, 2026 — The Best Kentucky Derby Story You’ll Hear This Year
