14:30 – Queen Mary Stakes – Fillies’ Group 2 – 2YO only – 5f
Key Stat
A high draw has been an edge in this over the last decade. Three American-trained runners have won in that time.
Market Leaders
#22 SENORITA BONITA ran out a very impressive winner on debut having been well backed to win a Nottingham Maiden that was won by 2024 Queen Mary heroine Leovanni. She was green early before settling at the rear and really shouldn’t have been able to win from the position she found herself in. She produced some rapid splits to reel in the front-running #10 FAST TRACK and clearly has tons of ability, as you’d hope for one that cost 900k guineas. The time was good, she’s got loads more to come and I would imagine very few will finish in front of her here.
#26 VICTORIOUS ticks a lot of boxes. She’s from the Aidan O’Brien yard, is unbeaten, has a fine pedigree and is top-rated by Timeform. She was very impressive on the splits two back but wasn’t quite as good visually last time out, making hard work of seeing off an unraced 25/1 shot. She showed a fine attitude there, however, and the pair pulled a long way clear of the third. This distance is a concern – she’s by a miler out of an 11-furlong winner and this will be run at a rapid pace, but she showed enough speed on debut to suggest she can handle it. Stall 5 could be better.
Key Contenders
#27 WILD BLOSSOM represents the Wathnan/Karl Burke combination that won this in 2024. She only beat three rivals on her sole start but was well touted beforehand and the runner-up had shown plenty of promise on debut. The splits weren’t exciting, but the final time was excellent and the way she rocketed clear in a matter of strides was deeply impressive. She could be absolutely anything.
#1 ALTA REGINA justified market support on her debut with an easy win at Lingfield. The time she clocked there was good and she was sharp through the last furlong. That probably wasn’t a strong Novice but she could only win as she liked and there should be plenty more to come. She should get a great trip from a high draw with loads of pace signed on.
#8 DRAZINDA made a winning debut at Chantilly on soft ground. It looked as though she would bolt up there, but she had a bit of a think about it when she got to the leader’s girth. French 2-year-olds are rarely sharp enough to win races of this nature and it looked as though she hit the ground quite hard on debut, so the firmer surface would be a concern.
Interesting Outsiders
#21 RUIVA was most impressive on debut, making light of a sloppy track to score by a wide margin in a fast time. It’ll be harder pulling those tactics off here but I doubt she’s far behind the best of these on ability.
#17 MORE CHAMPAGNE beat #24 SHINING MOMENT at Keeneland on debut despite the market heavily favouring the latter. I thought she got a lovely trip around there and #24 SHINING MOMENT fell apart late on, flattering her, but those tactics could prove beneficial here and #24 SHINING MOMENT has franked the form since.
15:05 – Queen’s Vase – Group 2 – 3YO only – 1m 6f 34y
Key Stat
Six of the last ten winners have been shorter than 5/1 in the betting.
Market Leaders
#3 GALIYAN was nominated by Oisin Murphy as his best ride of the meeting when interviewed recently and it’s not hard to see why. This lightly-raced colt show the benefit of his debut in April when making it second time lucky at Chester on his most recent start. Strong at the finish, the time and splits were impressive and this German-bred should relish the extra distance based on how strong he was at the line last time out. He should take another big step forward and looks a Stakes class performer.
Key Contenders
Aidan O’Brien has won this four times in the last decade and he relies on #8 PORT OF SPAIN as he looks to improve that record. He generally came up short in Group races last season and the drop to handicap company last time didn’t really work either, as he could only finish fifth. In fairness, that was his seasonal debut and that particular race, the London Gold Cup, is typically one of the strongest handicaps of the season, so it may be worth taking a positive view of his overall profile. If you ignore two bad runs on soft ground things start to look a lot better, and his third to Derby winner Christmas Day and French Derby fourth A Boy Named Susie reads exceptionally well in this company. He’s bred to stay and it’s interesting that he’s the yard’s pick when they have an abundance of suitable types for this race.
If O’Brien Snr doesn’t win it, then O’Brien Jnr might. Joseph has #4 LIMESTONE coming here on a four-timer following two wins at lower levels and a Listed victory last time out. He was a little outpaced by #1 ASAKIR that day but got the hang of things and was on top with a half-a-furlong to go, keeping on well despite doing little in front. He strikes me as a bit of a lazy, idle type, who may well have a bit more under the bonnet than we have seen so far, and I loved the way he’s been brought along steadily.
Interesting Outsiders
#7 POINT OF LAW has a nice profile for this sort of race and looked unlucky not to beat the vastly more experienced #2 DEL MARO – who had Group form as a juvenile and was just touched off in Listed company last time – on debut. He duly made amends next time out at Newbury and should step forward a good chunk from that, as he looks a nice type physically and has the pedigree to match. Could outrun his odds.
15:40 – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes – Fillies’ And Mares’ Group 2 – 4YO plus – 7f 213y
Key Stat
4-year-olds have dominated this, winning nine of the last ten renewals.
Market Leaders
#3 BLUE BOLT is at the head of the betting for this and that looks about right. She progressed rapidly last season, making her debut in May and finishing runner-up to the very talented Fallen Angel in the Sun Chariot just five months later. She returned to action with a win at Goodwood last month, landing the Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes by 0.75 lengths. She briefly looked in trouble there but I think she was just a bit rusty and, having eventually found top stride, was well on top at the line. She should be better as a 4-year-old on breeding and this more galloping track should suit, so there’s plenty to like about her provided she can get a sit early.
#10 FRIENDLY SOUL is a bit of a conundrum. She was a top-class performer in 2024, beating the mighty Kalpana in a fast time, and landing a Group 1 at the end of the season, but wasn’t seen at all last year. She made her return at Haydock last month and everything looked to be going swimmingly until she put her foot in a hole just over two furlongs out. She was lucky not to break her leg there and was swiftly pulled up, so we didn’t get to see what she was capable of. What we do know is that she was still very much on the bridle and travelling best when the incident occurred, so it’s fair to assume she retains a vast chunk of her ability. She drops back to a mile here for the first time since romping home over this course and distance and I do think that she’s the best in here on pure ability. Keep a close eye on the betting with her.
Key Contenders
#5 CATALINA DELCARPIO patently didn’t stay in the Ribblesdale at this meeting last year but looks happier this season having been cut back to a mile. I’m not sure the form of her Leopardstown Listed win is much good, to be honest, but the time was solid and she should enjoy returning to a stiff track and having a strong pace to run at. They got racing too early last time, which suited her, and a similar setup here would be ideal.
#11 GODSPEED hasn’t got a lot to find with #3 BLUE BOLT on a line through Fallen Angel and she could be the type to improve again this season. She looked a touch unfortunate not to beat Mandanaba last time out – who in turn looked a bit unlucky not to win the Just A Game earlier this month – and this strong-travelling sort has been waiting for a strong pace all of her life. She’s sitting on a big effort when she gets a good setup.
#12 KON TIKI and #14 SHES PERFECT both finished behind #3 BLUE BOLT at Goodwood. The latter got bogged down in soft ground at Epsom last time but would have claims on her French 1000 Guineas effort of last year, where she was disqualified having finished first past the post. #12 KON TIKI looked promising until the wheels came off at this meeting last year but likely needed that Goodwood run and might be capable of better again.
Interesting Outsiders
#6 CATHEDRAL was well behind #3 BLUE BOLT in the Sun Chariot but doesn’t have a lot to find on her Matron Stakes run behind Fallen Angel and excelled herself in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. I don’t think she really enjoyed synthetics on her return but she ran lights out behind #1 JANCIS having helped force an overly strong pace with #8 FALAKEYAH.
#8 FALAKEYAH was only 5/2 for the Coronation Stakes last year but flopped there and has disappointed twice again since. She has some excuses and I wonder if we might see a different horse if she’s held up for a later run. The drop to a mile and waiting tactics – if employed – could really suit this girl, who looked like a Group 1 horse on her second start.
#1 JANCIS looks to have come back even better as a 5-year-old. She has a good course and distance run from last year and really impressed with the way she picked up #6 CATHEDRAL at Newmarket two back, even allowing for the strong gallop. She didn’t get that sort of pace last time out in a Group 2 at the Curragh, but showed she was still in top form with a good closing effort. She ran at least as well as City Of Memphis that day on the splits, and that filly – who would almost certainly be close to favourite in here – is both highly regarded and potentially top class.
16:20 – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes – Group 1 – 4YO plus – 1m 1f 212y
Key Stat
Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden have trained six of the last 10 winners. They field #7 MINNIE HAUK and #6 OMBUDSMAN here.
Market Leaders
The race of the meeting sees #3 DARYZ and #6 OMBUDSMAN face off. A rematch of sorts, #6 OMBUDSMAN finished well in front of #3 DARYZ in the International but a lot has happened since then.
#3 DARYZ has since gone on to win the Arc and I wouldn’t read much into that York contest, although it would be a minor negative that he’s run poorly the only time he’s shipped. With that said, he’s looked an absolute superstar in two starts this season, romping home in two Group 1 contests, and it’ll take a very good one to down him.
That could well be last year’s winner #6 OMBUDSMAN, who may be able to confirm that York form. He was unlucky not to win the Champion Stakes here at the backend of last year, running into Calandagan, but looked very good out in Dubai and prepped nicely for this with a narrow win at Sandown, giving 7lb to what is likely a very smart rival and still beating him. He’s got a better draw than #3 DARYZ and that may allow him to come out on top.
Key Contenders
#1 ALMAQAM has always promised to be very good and finally made a breakthrough at Group 1 level last time out in the Tattersalls Stakes. He had a subsequent Group 1 winner behind him that day and ran a blinder behind #6 OMBUDSMAN in the Champion Stakes from the unfavoured 1 post. Unfortunately, he’s been burdened with the same draw again, but he should not be underestimated.
#7 MINNIE HAUK was just touched off by #3 DARYZ in the Arc and looked set for a big season when returning with a win, showing some good pace despite being weak in the market. She bombed out behind #1 ALMAQAM last time out but was found to be slightly lame behind afterwards so you can forgive that effort. I’m just not sure she’s quite up to the level of these elite colts over this trip.
Interesting Outsiders
#8 SEE THE FIRE was behind #6 OMBUDSMAN in this last year but raced on the unfavoured inside. She might get a nicer trip here from a wider stall and comes into the race with her confidence up having won her last two at lower levels.
17:00 – Royal Hunt Cup – Heritage Handicap – 3YO plus – 1m
Key Stat
4- and 5-year-olds have won all of the last ten renewals of this race. Generally, extremes of draws have been best. No horse has carried more than 9 stone 5lbs in the last decade.
Market Leaders
#16 LA BOTTE has been threatening to land a big pot for a while and looked very unlucky not to score in the Britannia here last year. He very much caught the eye on his seasonal debut at Wolverhampton when given one of the worst rides of the season and he’s just been ticking over since, ridden more forward in slowly-run Listed races which wouldn’t be his bag at all. A mark of 102 looks a gift on the Britannia speed-figure and he will be a lot happier back in handicaps with a patient ride.
#25 CLASSIC and #27 INDALO filled the first two places in a handicap at Newbury last time out. The former looks improved for waiting tactics and I don’t think a 4lb rise will stop him given the ease with which he travelled through the race there. He’s got a better draw than #27 INDALO and I expect him to confirm the form and go close.
Key Contenders
#15 FIFTH COLUMN ran really well at this meeting last year in the Britannia, winning the race on his side and finishing seventh overall. He won a couple of times after that but seemed to lose his way on his final two starts of the year. He’s come back well this season, however, shaping well at Newbury and running huge to finish second at Newmarket last time, where the ninth furlong found him out having made a strong move. He’ll enjoy returning to a mile, but he’s a bit stuck in the middle from stall 14.
#18 ERZINDJAN finished a place in front of him that day, doing it a bit more evenly and therefore able to sustain his finish, but still impressing on the clock. He’s ended up with a better draw than #15 FIFTH COLUMN here and still looks to be on a very fair mark, just 3lb higher than when looking desperately unlucky in the Cambridgeshire last season. That Newmarket win last time was his seasonal debut, too, and better can be expected given he’d never really run well fresh before. He has a fine chance.
#13 JAGGED EDGE had showed promise last year but looked much improved as a 4-year-old when romping home on his debut for the Stephen Thorne yard at Naas last time out. The splits tell the story of a horse who was in a different class to his opponents, and he was allowed to coast home throughout the final furlong. The time was good and he has the right running style, but he’s up 9lbs in the weights and in class, and I’m not sure he wants ground this quick.
Interesting Outsiders
#1 HOLLOWAY BOY has been threatening to win one of these for a while. This likeable sort is very effective at this track and the form of his last run, where they didn’t go quick enough for him, has worked out well. His 5lb claimer essentially has him running off 107 which is well within his range and he should get plenty of cover.
#14 CHECKANDCHALLENGE has some back class and is down to a very fair mark now. He caught the eye two back and was probably on the worst part of the track last time out behind #25 CLASSIC and #27 INDALO, but still ran well and will enjoy getting back to a stiff track.
17:35 – Kensington Palace Stakes – Fillies’ And Mares’ Handicap – 4YO plus – 1m
Key Stat
A limited sample, but all five winners of this race have been 4-year-olds. Four of the five winners have carried 9 stone 1lb or less.
Market Leaders
#10 ALOBAYYAH very much looks the one to beat here. She did some tremendous late work last time out off a slow pace and with a tailwind assisting the front-runners and these conditions should be much more suitable. Stall 16 looks a nice draw and she couldn’t really be in better hands. She should reverse from with #8 RADIANT BEAUTY with a stronger pace and cover from the wind, and she is undoubtedly better than a mark of 90.
Key Contenders
#1 STATEIRA ran very well in a Group 2 in Ireland last time out when a little bit too keen off a slow pace having raced wide without cover. She’s got untapped potential still off this mark, particularly if able to settle a bit better here off a strong gallop, although conceding weight to some improving sorts won’t be easy.
Interesting Outsiders
#6 AMERICAN GAL hasn’t been in much form but Ed Walker is an excellent target trainer and I’d expect her to run a bit better here, particularly if held up.
18:10 – Windsor Castle Stakes – Listed – 2YO only – 6f
Key Stat
Previously a five-furlong race, this contest is now run over six-furlongs and has sire restrictions in place, so previous trends are likely to be irrelevant.
Market Leaders
#17 SERGEI DIAGHILEV is bred for the job and made a lovely winning debut with a smooth success at the Curragh, showing good acceleration off a steady pace. Sent off odds-on, he is clearly held in some regard, and the form of that race has been nicely franked by the 2nd and 3rd. He’s drawn a little out on the wing here in stall 2, but otherwise he’s got a lot going for him and should be bang there at the finish.
#20 CONTROLLA was sent off at 25/1 for her sole start but outran those odds with a superb effort behind Victorious (runs in the Queen Mary, the first race on the card), throwing in some fine splits to close on that rival before flattening out close home. She is miles clear on ratings – Timeform have her with 10lbs in hand – and with natural improvement she really should be going very close here. She’s got a lovely pedigree and an excellent draw.
Key Contenders
#6 CELERON made a nice winning debut at the Curragh. Always well placed off a steady pace, he dispatched two rivals with experience having travelled well. He should improve plenty for that run but perhaps the one to take out of that race was #13 ONE NUMBER.
#13 ONE NUMBER was left poorly placed due to early greenness but showed a tremendous turn of foot to quicken up and close the gap on #6 CELERON, running the last two furlongs significantly faster than that rival who was running fast himself. He should improve a ton for that initial experience and is draw where all of the speed is and I like his American pedigree for this sort of test. Big chance at double-figure odds.
#15 RULER’S CONTROL showed a good change of gear to win on debut, handling heavy ground with aplomb, and has subsequently switched yards to become a stablemate of #13 ONE NUMBER. The form has worked out and he’s got scope to improve again, but he’s a forward-going type and looked speedy on debut – I’m not sure those factors are positives moving up in trip into a headwind.
#16 SALE SHARK benefitted from a strong pace on debut but he could do no more than win handsomely in a fast time. He should thrive over this extra furlong and has Oisin Murphy aboard, but his draw could have been better.
Interesting Outsiders
#10 GREEN SOVEREIGN was a winner at a lower-level last time out but demolished a solid yardstick with some good splits in a fast time despite hanging. Better ground should suit him and he should improve again.
#8 DANCE A JIG looks interesting. He did loads wrong on debut behind A Bear Affair but shaped the better of the two and confirmed that next time out at Ascot when beating that rival but just going down to Adaay Of Scarlett. That form received a big boost in the Coventry and #8 DANCE A JIG should enjoy settling off a fast pace here, for all that I’m not sure the six furlong is truly what he wants at this stage of his career.
