Royal Ascot in the morning, Presque Isle in the evening, and just like that, it’s time for my final handicapping article this week. While the fields don’t reflect the same competitiveness and amount of entries that the last couple cards have had, there are still plenty of opportunities to get excited about.
All times EDT
RACE 1 – 1 mile 70 yards, Maiden Claiming $7,500 Post Time: 3:30 p.m
At first glance, this race seems ripe for the 2-1 morning line Red Drapes (#2) to come in and take this win easy. Even with Beyer Speed Figures that loom larger than any in the field and a high percentage trainer, I can’t help but wonder if this horse will want the distance after failing to keep position in her last start at Laurel Park. My attention turns instead to the longshot Houdini’s Bride (#3), who did no running in two starts at Finger Lakes and enters the barn of Rachel Sells, a trainer winning at a 20% clip in route races. It’s very possible this horse just wants no part in running, but I’m willing to hedge that the change of scenery will work wonders for her. The #2 slots nicely into second as what the public will identify as the fastest horse in the field. There is some expectation for Fillyrules (#6) to run well, dropping from a maiden $15,000 race into this field.
Race 1 selections: 3-2-6
RACE 2 – 6 ½ furlongs, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 3:57
Tiz Big Money (#6) is the lone speed on paper. The only question with him is getting that extra half furlong (he’s finished second and third at this distance, never first) but in this field he should be home free if he breaks well under jockey Gallardo Martinez. The only horse that looks to be a threat is Partner Tours (#4), cutting back after a race at a mile and 70 yards and turning similar BSF’s to the #6. However, John Fennessey’s barn has been cold, with the route/sprint angle proving dismal returns with only a 4% winrate. The only other horse I would trust is Stargazzers Dream (#5), who, out of the remaining horses in the field, has shown the least amount of regression and most hope for a return to form. He could pass the leaders should they tire in the stretch.
Race 2 selections: 6-4-5
RACE 3 – 1 mile, Maiden Claiming $15,000 Post Time: 4:24
The pace of this race looks testy, so I’m counting on Gun Policy (#4) to dig in when the front end types fall away. He was caught after taking a brief lead mid-stretch in his last race, and his second start at a route distance should prove him sharper. His pedigree also screams stamina, and I’m not about to go questioning Gun Runner after I got burned on Monday by the first time starter in the fifth. T’ray (#3) is coming out of the same race as the #4, and promises to be another pace-pusher in this quick field. Beyond that, third place feels wide open. I’ll hedge my bet with Mr Baldy (#2), an American Pharoah colt dropping steeply from a maiden special weight at Finger Lakes to this 15k maiden claimer. Getting out of New York might just be the key angle of the day for this card. If you’re trying to get some multirace wagers home, I’d go wide with this race. It has that volatile feel to it.
Race 3 selections: 4-3-2
RACE 4 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 4:51
The 5-year-old Good Enough For Me (#5) will suffice in this spot, seemingly the only horse willing to run across the tapeta, barring a massive improvement by another horse in the race. Khozanall (#1) could be in with a shot if trainer Moises Valdez can return her to her previous forward-minded ways. For third, I’m eyeing Silent Diva (#3), who’s faced early-speed style tracks in her last three starts. I’m interested to see what she can do in her second start off layoff with a track less biased.
Race 4 selections: 5-1-3
RACE 5 – 4 ½ furlongs, Maiden Special Weight Post Time: 5:18
Two year old racing is always exciting, frustrating, and thrilling to watch. While he won’t have much time to do it, I’m interested in Kingdom Chaser (#1) for this race. In his debut, he managed to pass horses and make up a bit of ground. Kelsey Danner’s trainee Zimomo (#6) is an intriguing prospect, bringing this horse in from a tough Churchill Downs maiden special weight over the grass. A second start should make all the difference for #6, and he’s turned in some of the quickest workouts of this bunch, posting a 48.3 over 4 furlongs at Turfway Park on June 8th. I have a feeling Colucci (#3) could take some money, as he comes from the first crop of Corniche progeny to hit the race tracks, so I’m going to look towards Gangam Grey (#4) to complete my trifecta. His first start, he produced a mild bid and evened out towards the wire, so there could be some untapped potential that shines in his second run.
Race 5 selections: 1-6-4
RACE 6 – 6 furlongs, Allowance Optional Claiming $25,000 Post Time: 5:45
I love a good race with familiar faces, and this field knows one another quite well after many emerge from an optional claimer on June 1st. With a fairer track, I look for Reeled In (#5) to get the edge on the rival who beat him last time, the front-running Hector (#3). It would be nice to see Lets Get It On (#2) return to form after a career-worst BSF of 47 in his first race back from the winter layoff, dropping from a 40K optional claimer to this field.
Race 6 selections: 5-3-2
RACE 7 – 6 furlongs, Allowance Post Time: 6:12
Call it a hunch, but I expect big things from Wherever We Are (#2) as a veteran of this class to flash some strength in this field. She turned her fastest career BSF last time out and could show further improvement in the jump from three to four years old. Fleur Delacour (#5) is a safe bet to box up, going 12/15 hitting the board at this distance on the Presque Isle tapeta. Despite the jump in class, Valiant Victoria (#1) could stick around on the front end after taking her last field, a $5,000 claiming race, gate-to-wire.
Race 7 selections: 2-5-1
RACE 8 – 5 ½ furlongs Maiden Claiming $25,000 Post Time: 6:39
Endless Glory (#5) faded after setting the early pace last time out and should enjoy this drop in class, as well as a less-biased track. Starlit Sky (#8) worked 4 furlongs in 47 seconds and should enjoy the cutback in distance after a distant second place effort last time out. Lastly, Intimate (#3) showed passing ability and could make a run for the money in the closing stages of the race.
Race 8 selections: 5-8-3
I hope I didn’t rush this out and leave it feeling lacking in analysis, but I still have Royal Ascot selections to make for tomorrow and it’s pretty late already. I’m hyped to be back talking more about Presque Isle Downs racing next week, and all through the rest of the meet, or at least until someone important at ITM tells me to stop.
