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The Puma’s Hidden Bullet
Edition No. 11 · Monday, April 20, 2026 · 12 Days to Post
🏇 Don’t Sleep on The Puma
The Puma shipped his final work before leaving for Churchill Downs on Saturday at Gulfstream Park — five furlongs in 1:00.77 with Javier Castellano aboard. That alone is a solid move. But DRF’s David Aragona noted on Twitter that the credited distance was arbitrary — this was effectively a 7F drill in about 1:24.60. If it had happened at Churchill, people would be buzzing.
They should be buzzing anyway. The Puma vans to Churchill today, where he’ll have one more breeze Friday before the Derby. Trainer Gustavo Delgado is following the same blueprint that connections used three years ago with Mage — second in the Florida Derby in just his third start, then a 15-1 upset in the Derby itself.
👉 Watch The Puma’s work (via 1/ST TV on Twitter)
📣 See PTF and JK Live in Lexington & Louisville
Wednesday, April 29 · 6:30–9:00 PM
Final Answers: The ITM Oaks & Derby Handicapping Event
The Manchester Hotel · Lexington, KY
Presented by Medallion Racing. Premium open bar, buffet, and a live taping of the Final Answers show with JK (Fox Sports 1), PTF, Phillip Shelton (Medallion Racing), and Maggie Wolfendale-Morley (Fox Sports/NYRA). Your ticket includes Friday and Saturday PPs. $155 — tickets won’t be available for long. Get yours here.
Thursday, April 30 · 5:30 PM
Derby Inquiries with PTF and JK
The Galt House Lobby · Louisville, KY
The questions we need to answer before the Run for the Roses. Free and open to the public. Book your Derby week stay at The Galt House and save $500/night.
📊 OddsWatch: Where the Market Stands
With 12 days to the post position draw, here’s how the books see it. Renegade remains the consensus favorite at 7/2 across every major book. Commandment is locked at 5/1. The most interesting movement is Further Ado, who has drifted to 7/1 at a couple of shops despite that flashy Churchill work on Friday — if that doesn’t tighten him back up, there may be value sitting right there in plain sight.
Chief Wallabee has come in from 16/1 to as tight as 12/1 now that he’s confirmed. Six Speed remains the wildest spread on the board — 20/1 at some shops, 66/1 at others. Nobody knows what to do with the international shipper.
DRF’s Aragona keeps his top three unchanged and noted six 100+ Beyers from five different horses — “a Derby with some depth to it.”
👉 Full OddsWatch table at inthemoneypodcast.com — UPDATED
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🏁 Oaklawn Aftermath: Everybody Gets a Pass
A couple of important notes on Saturday’s Oaklawn Handicap beyond the result.
Aragona noted on Twitter that Sovereignty “wasn’t fully cranked” — anyone who watched the workouts objectively could see it. Journalism also didn’t look as sharp as at his peak, and did himself no favors acting up in the gate before the break.
White Abarrio was the fittest horse in the field. That doesn’t mean he’s the best — it means he was ready and they weren’t.
What’s next? Our friend Darin Zoccali of TwinSpires.com mapped it out: Sovereignty heads to the Stephen Foster. Journalism has said the Met Mile is a goal. White Abarrio is on an 80-day race cycle — the Stephen Foster is 70 days out, so a rematch with Sovereignty there is possible. If not, the Suburban on July 4th or the Monmouth Cup a couple weeks later. Skippylongstocking runs in the Alysheba on Oaks Day.
🔄 Churchill Gets Crowded
The backstretch fills up today. The Puma vans from Gulfstream — one more breeze Friday. Incredibolt arrives from Palm Meadows. Emerging Market ships from Payson Park. So Happy ships from Santa Anita tomorrow. Danon Bourbon arrives in America tomorrow. Silent Tactic is already on the grounds — arrived Saturday from Oaklawn.
All contenders must be on-site by Saturday, April 25. The post position draw is that afternoon.
The Kentucky Derby Morning Works Show presented by TwinSpires runs daily through April 30 on kentuckyderby.com/works, Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube. Derby contenders get an exclusive training window from 7:15-7:30 AM ET — look for the yellow saddle towels.
🎙️ This Week on ITM
Lots of new content this week — more Monster Pods, a unique Derby handicapping video with a hot new guest, and Duke Matties will join us to rank every Derby winner of the 21st Century. Also, Kevin Kilroy from the Churchill Downs Morning Works Show stops by for a deep dive on Chip Honcho — the Asmussen-trained speed horse sitting first on the also-eligible list. If Iron Honor and Stark Contrast both skip, Chip Honcho is in the gate. Stay tuned.
📋 ICYMI
👉 Yesterday’s D2D: Chief Wallabee Is In
👉 Kornacki breaks down Derby prep race data (NBC Sports)
👉 Bill Nack: Champion Storyteller Devoted to His Craft (ABR) — if you’ve never read this, do yourself a favor
👉 Golden Tempo Monster Pod with Frank McGoey
👉 Free Bris Derby PPs (PDF)
👉 Derby OddsWatch — UPDATED
❓ Today’s Open Question
The Puma is 10/1 across the board. After that work, is that value or fair?
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📚 Previous Editions
Edition 10 · April 19, 2026 — Chief Wallabee Is In
Edition 9 · April 18, 2026 — The Best Kentucky Derby Story You’ll Hear This Year
Edition 8 · April 17, 2026 — “A Bit Average”
