Get Daily to Derby FREE in your inbox every morning.
“A Bit Average”
Edition No. 8 · Friday, April 17, 2026 · 15 Days to Post
🏇 Our Clocker’s Take on Renegade’s Work
Following up on our lead story from yesterday, Renegade put in his first breeze since the Arkansas Derby at Palm Beach Downs — four furlongs in :48.91, galloping out three-quarters in 1:01.88 in company with stablemate Powershift. Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form was impressed enough, saying Renegade “looked the part of the potential Kentucky Derby favorite.” But here’s the thing about workout analysis — very much like trip analysis, a lot is left to the eye of the beholder. See for yourself →
In the Money workout analyst Chris Cupples, an esteemed horseplayer, saw it differently.
“Without being overly critical, I thought he looked a bit average. He needed encouragement along nearly the entire time, but always responded and picked it up when asked. With horses of this caliber I prefer to see them travel without being pushed on. In his prior works he went much easier.” — Chris Cupples
There’s obviously room for improvement and this doesn’t mean you should toss the horse or anything. But the visual impression matters a lot in these final moves before the Derby, and Cupples wasn’t impressed yesterday. Speaking of Cupples, he will be offering workout analysis of all the available Derby works as part of our In the Money Plus coverage. This isn’t some naked upsell — we will have a ton of great information free on the sites and YouTube channel, but if you want all the best info, including proprietary speed figures, trip work, deep dives on every horse and grid picks from the team, you want to get in on the Plus side of things.
Workouts ahead of the Derby are famous for having a much bigger impact on the market than for any other race. If Renegade working only OK becomes part of the narrative, is it possible I’ve jumped the gun in confidently saying he’ll be the favorite?
Does Renegade Have to Be the Derby Favorite?
ITM’s own Nick Tammaro, taking over for Mike Battaglia after 51 years, projects a tight top three: Renegade 9-2, Commandment 5-1, Further Ado 6-1. No one is pulling away.
“It would be foolish to ignore what’s happening in the market and the public reaction after the Arkansas Derby. Renegade has to be the favorite right now, but this isn’t a race where anyone is going to be odds-on or even close.” — Nick Tammaro, Churchill Downs
Commandment has won four straight. Further Ado popped a 106 Beyer in the Blue Grass. Renegade has the closing kick and the connections — but after yesterday’s work, the question of who goes favored on the first Saturday in May is more open than ever.
Full Tammaro piece at churchilldowns.com
🎙️ Chief Wallabee Monster Pod
The latest Monster Pod is live — a full breakdown of Chief Wallabee, who arrived at Churchill Downs this week and will add blinkers for the Derby. Bill Mott’s Florida Derby third has the pedigree, the experience, and a Hall of Fame trainer making a calculated equipment change. Is it enough?
▶ Watch the Chief Wallabee Monster Pod on YouTube
📣 See PTF and JK Live in Lexington & Louisville
Wednesday, April 29 · 6:30–9:00 PM
Final Answers: The ITM Oaks & Derby Handicapping Event
The Manchester Hotel · Lexington, KY
Presented by Medallion Racing. Premium open bar, buffet, and a live taping of the Final Answers show with JK (Fox Sports 1), PTF, Phillip Shelton (Medallion Racing), and Maggie Wolfendale-Morley (Fox Sports/NYRA). Your ticket includes Friday and Saturday PPs. $155 — tickets won’t be available for long. Get yours here.
Thursday, April 30 · 5:30 PM
Derby Inquiries with PTF and JK
The Galt House Lobby · Louisville, KY
The questions we need to answer before the Run for the Roses. Free and open to the public. Book your Derby week stay at The Galt House and save $500/night.
🏁 Tomorrow: Sovereignty-Journalism-White Abarrio at Oaklawn
The $1.25 million Oaklawn Handicap goes tomorrow — Sovereignty’s four-year-old debut, his third meeting with Journalism, and White Abarrio adding a third elite horse to the mix. Post time is 7:20pm ET on FS2 and FanDuel TV.
Sovereignty is 4-5 on the morning line. Journalism is 5-2 with Jose Ortiz picking up the mount. White Abarrio breaks from the rail at 7-2 with Irad Ortiz aboard.
👉 Read PTF’s full Oaklawn Handicap breakdown at attheraces.com
Like what you’re reading? Get Daily to Derby free in your inbox every morning.
🔄 Field Watch: Churchill Notebook
Still waiting on Chad Brown’s decisions on Ottinho and Iron Honor. Entries close April 25.
Thunder Over Louisville lights up tomorrow night — the 37th annual opening ceremony of the Kentucky Derby Festival. This year’s theme: “Thunder in the U.S.A.” honoring America’s 250th anniversary. Derby season is officially here.
📋 ICYMI
👉 Renegade Monster Pod with Duke Matties
👉 Pavlovian Monster Pod with Ryan Anderson
👉 Yesterday’s D2D: Renegade Looks As Expected
👉 Edition 6: Can I Bet the Derby on Kalshi?
👉 Free Kentucky Derby PPs
👉 Derby OddsWatch
❓ Today’s Open Question
Renegade, Commandment, or Further Ado — who goes favored on the first Saturday in May? And would you buy these Derby shoes if your spouse would let you?
Never miss a Daily to Derby edition.
Subscribe free and get Daily to Derby delivered to your inbox every morning through the first Saturday in May.
📚 Previous Editions
Edition 7 · April 16, 2026 — Renegade Looks As Expected
Edition 6 · April 15, 2026 — Can I Bet the Derby on Kalshi?
Edition 5 · April 14, 2026 — The Triple Crown Is Changing
