Overview:
We have five Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series races in Ireland this weekend, with the winner of each race being guaranteed a place in the field at the Breeders’ Cup this October. These qualifying races are not like for like with their BC counterparts – they’re run over different distances or track configurations – but that does at least allow us to predict improvement, or regression, at Keeneland, which should lead to wagering value.
The Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes – winner gets a guaranteed berth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf
Almaqam
Here: A top-class but somewhat unheralded horse who’s taken his form to another level aged 5. He was an emphatic winner of the Tattersalls Gold Cup with a subsequent Group 1 winner in behind and probably found the ground a little bit fast at Royal Ascot. Bounced back to his best when narrowly denied by Item in the International Stakes at York and should run a big race again here under optimum conditions, as that form is basically the best on offer.
At the BC: Connections have always believed he would stay 12 furlongs, but he didn’t finish that strongly in his only try over that distance in the Prix Foy last year and the potential for fast ground would also be a negative. Doesn’t scream BC Turf winner to me on profile.
Hotazhell
Here: German Group 1 winner over this distance last time but he is probably only a solid Group 2/3 performer in his native Ireland and he looks up against it as he attempts to improve on his 4th in this race last year.
At the BC: Needs good ground or softer and was too keen on his only try over 12 furlongs in the Arc last season. Hard to fancy.
Lambourn
Here: Last year’s Derby winner looked set for a good season when gamely making all on his seasonal debut but bombed out on his next three starts and looked to be a pacemaker on paper in the King George last time out, although did ultimately appear to run on his merits. And he actually ran quite well. He was no match for three top-class rivals but he boxed on pretty nicely despite hanging a little and this was much more like it. I don’t see him having the speed to win this – and there’s a chance he will actually be a pacemaker here as he’s 50/1 with a third string jockey on – but look for him staying on late in the piece.
At the BC: Much will depend on how he fares here. If there are further signs of life then Keeneland would appear to be an ideal test, with decent ground on a sharp, left-handed track looking like his optimum conditions. This colt has the backclass to be very competitive.
Wimbledon Hawkeye
Here: Likeable winner of last year’s Nashville Derby. Behind Hotazhell two back but gamely landed the Prix Gontaut-Biron last time out. Looks up against it here.
At the BC: Well held 12th in the Turf last year and hard to see him figuring again this year.
A Boy Named Susie
Here: Likeable sort who keeps running good races while coming up a little bit short at the top level. Had a nice confidence booster last time out in a Group 3, winning at odds of 1/7, but held by Constitution River on a couple of lines and needs to improve to reverse that form.
At the BC: Interesting contender as he has shaped as though he is worth a try over 12 furlongs. None of his siblings are stayers but he does have Montjeu blood on the dam side which would give you some hope. Striding is inconclusive, however, and I’d likely be looking to take him on stretching out in the Turf particularly if he’s towards the head of the betting.
Constitution River
Here: Looked a world beater earlier in the year when landing the French Derby and the Eclipse but things didn’t go to plan at York last time out where he could only finish third behind Item and Almaqam. Did plenty wrong that day having stumbled over the path and raced keenly, and I expect him to put in a better display here.
At the BC: He’s a brother to a 14 furlong winner so should find the 12 furlong trip of the Turf within his range; he can be keen but his striding suggests he would stay. Has a similar profile to Found – who won the Turf at Keeneland for O’Brien in 2015 – and would almost certainly be one of the ratings and form picks going into the race.
Hawk Mountain
Here: Chased Constitution River home in the French Derby but was beaten much further in the Eclipse (also behind A Boy Named Susie) and appeared to resent front-running/firm ground/York last time out, going out like a light once headed. Headgear is removed here and I expect a better run on easier ground, although it’s hard to see him winning a race of this nature.
At the BC: He should stay 12 furlongs but I think he wants some give in the ground to be seen at his very best. Much will depend on the level of performance here, but if he shapes well and rocks up at a good ground Keeneland he’d be of some interest.
Item
Here: Classy performer whose only poor run this season was in the Derby where soft ground and the cambered track – or a combination of the two – well and truly found him out. Has won both starts since, including the International last time out, and is just about the pick on form and speedfigures. Should get a dream run around from stall 4 and looks the one to beat.
At the BC: Huge chance on pure ability, particularly if he wins here, but 12 furlongs would be a big worry on breeding and his run in the Derby, where he admittedly did have excuses. Striding is promising in that regard and 12 furlongs on firm ground (which he will relish) around Keeneland would hardly be the sternest test. Class edge could see him through.
Coolmore America ‘Justify’ Matron Stakes (G1) – winner gets a guaranteed berth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Blue Bolt
Here: Blue Point filly has established herself as the leading distaff miler thanks to an undefeated season. Has beaten Precise back to back and again has that rival to contend with here, but no reason to think she won’t confirm the form provided that stall 9 isn’t too much of an inconvenience.
At the BC: Yet to race over further than a mile but finished strongly when winning at Royal Ascot, and last time at Deauville, and should stay the extra 1.5 furlongs given her dam was a 12f winner. Yet to fully prove herself at this level around a sharp, left-handed track here but a win here would tick that box and all ground comes alike to her – no reason to think she wouldn’t be a leading contender at Keeneland, particularly as Juddmonte-owned fillies have won this in the past.
Carolina Jetstream
Here: Well behind Blue Bolt at Royal Ascot and held at Listed level last time out. Hard to fancy.
At the BC: Would need a to run at least 10lbs better than she ever has to even make the field.
City Of Memphis
Here: Sole defeat came when thrust into the Irish 2000 Guineas last year on just her second start, running huge in the circumstances to finish fifth despite a bad trip. Winner of all three starts this season – beat Carolina Jetstream, who had the favoured front-running rail trip, convincingly last time out – including at this course two back. Hasn’t been seen since May and it’s a big ask for her to win this off the break against elite fillies, although she is fresh at least.
At the BC: Would seem to have a nice profile for the race as she is improving and has form around a left-handed bend, while she also seems to handle most ground. Extra distance looks within her range and look for her to take a step forward in form here; would have a good chance at Keeneland if she can run to 115 or so here with improvement projected.
Duckadilly
Here: Likeable filly but a ton to find.
At the BC: Hard to see her being rated high enough to figure unless she pulls off a miracle.
Fallen Angel
Here: Logical BC Mile type in the past has never made it across the Atlantic despite winning this last year. Doesn’t come here in the same form this time around – beaten in a Listed race last time compared to coming off a Group 1 win in 2025 – and this 5-year-old looks to have lost a bit of her fizz.
At the BC: Beaten favourite on both starts when she’s attempted to stretch out (does have excuses) and it’s not an angle I’d be willing to risk money on if she attempts it in the F&M, even if she runs much better here.
Meriden
Here: Gone up 38lbs in the ratings this season but needs another 12lb on top of that to figure.
At the BC: Started out winning over 7 furlongs and didn’t appear to get home over 9 last time out. Hard to fancy even if she does something unexpected here.
Pivotal Attack
Here: Well held behind True Love and Precise earlier in the season and best form is over shorter on soft.
At the BC: Last win over seven furlongs at a stiff, right-handed track on soft ground. Will be zero resemblance to the F&M and form under similar conditions has her barely at Stakes level.
Precise
Here: Looked the champ when brilliantly winning in the Irish 1000 Guineas before following up despite a bad trip at Royal Ascot. Hasn’t shone as brightly the last three starts but has still run to a very good level, finishing behind Blue Bolt twice and running colts close on her latest start. Well drawn here and should run a bold race.
At the BC: Enough in her pedigree and running style to suggest that the extra 1.5 furlongs should be suitable and she should prove herself capable around a left-handed bend here. Clearly brings a high level of form to the table but has had a long season and some hard races, so may be vulnerable to fresher legs in late October.
True Love
Here: Put fitness to good use to land the English 1000 Guineas but behind stablemate Precise in the Irish equivalent and at Royal Ascot. Has run well enough the last twice against colts but not shown enough to suggest she can beat Blue Bolt and Precise here, even at a track she enjoys.
At the BC: Some stamina on her page but the fact that she ran in the Juvenile Turf Sprint last year and dropped back to sprinting last time out suggests connections see her as more of a speed horse. Doesn’t look like an enticing candidate to stretch out.
Moyglare Stud Stakes (G1) – winner gets a guaranteed berth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Alpha
Here: Regally bred daughter of Sea The Stars who looked a potential top-notcher when running down Dancing Destiny at 1/6 two back. Finished behind that rival and Green Empress last time out and has a little bit to prove now.
At the BC: Bred and owned by the Niarchos family who obviously have a rich history at the event. Bred to relish the mile and fast ground and this tough sort looks a nice candidate for the JFT.
Ballinea Star
Here: Improved with every run to land a Group 3 here on her most recent start. Needs more off the back of that but is going the right way.
At the BC: Hard to weigh this one up. Best form is over sprint trips but her half-sbling was a winner over 22 furlongs over hurdles and connections have already mentioned the Breeders’ Cup as a target, although they would presumably also have the Juvenile Turf Sprint as an option. This run will tell us more.
Controlla
Here: Hugely eye-catching on debut and backed as though defeat was out of the question at Royal Ascot. Flopped that day and since and hard to fancy now.
At the BC: Impossible to fancy on form but Amo Racing-owned so a decent show here could see her raise her rating enough to get into the field and she’s likely to take her chance. Should enjoy a mile.
Dancing Destiny
Here: Has form that ties in with several of these. Improving sort keeps pulling out a little bit more but does need to turn things around with Green Empress last time, who won with something to spare there.
At the BC: This tough sort is in good hands and has form going left-handed and a win over a mile. Should be amongst the leading Juvenile Fillies Turf contenders assuming she maintains her progress here.
Green Empress
Here: Behind Sun Goddess twice but closed the gap significantly the second time before going on to win a Group 2 over this course and distance last time out with stablemate Dancing Destiny behind. Would have been a most unlucky loser that day as she travelled all over the field and only found room late on, quickening up in the style of high class filly to get out of trouble. Keeps improving and should step forward again, so has major claims of turning the form around with her old rival Sun Goddess here.
At the BC: Owners the Thoroughbred Corporation have owned many top US performers including BC Juvenile winner Anees and War Emblem. This filly is a half to Grade 3 winner and looks sure to relish the mile on breeding. Ticks all the boxes assuming she continues to progress and her trainer is no stranger to BC success.
Ibelieveicanfly
Here: Talented filly but behind Dancing Destiny and Green Empress last time out. Possible pacemaker for Sun Goddess and needs more.
At the BC: American-bred so should be suited to the job at hand but will need to outrun her odds here to be considered good enough to run. Unlikely to be first string there in any case.
Sun Goddess
Here: Star juvenile filly who has largely swept all before her this season. Produced one of the visual displays of the season in a Sales race at York last time out, almost last a furlong out before storming home to win by six lengths. Was flattered there out of the wind against overmatched rivals but had previously beaten the boys in a Group 1 and is clearly both a very high class horse and the one to beat here.
At the BC: She’s done all of her winning over six furlongs or shorter so this race will tell us more about whether the mile will suit in time. She’s not raced around a bend yet which is another doubt but she’s already shown enough ability to suggest she can win the race and her tactical speed and toughness are big ticks.
Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (G1) – winner gets a guaranteed berth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
Dr Rascal
Here: Unbeaten colt who got the better of Haffner at Goodwood last time out. Given a nice break since and still not sure where his ceiling is. This will tell us more but looks a high class colt so far.
At the BC: Much will depend on the level of ability he can show here but on what he’s done to date he looks like a nice candidate for the Juvenile Turf. Seems to handle all ground and a sharp track will pose no issues, while a mile looks a formality.
Florida Bay
Here: Improving colt who has got better with each start to date. Excuse for his defeat two back and got a strange ride last time out, moving obligingly off the favoured rail to allow his better fancied stablemate Giant Sequoia through on the inside before easing late, going down by just 0.5 length in the end. May be in to provide pace again but looks the lone speed and not impossible he could run a big race if left alone here.
At the BC: Plenty to like about the Juvenile Turf claims of this handy, straightforward sort who has already shown a high level of form. Track and ground should be ideal and I wouldn’t read too much into his defeat over a mile three back.
Folsom Blues
Here: Behind Florida Bay two back when given plenty to do and ran a great race behind superstar Sun Goddess last time out at the Curragh when again doing good work late on. Every chance on ratings on that form and any rain that falls will suit.
At the BC: Tricky one to weigh up as best form has come sprinting and his sole win came on soft ground. I’m not sure I see him as a fast ground miler at this stage so I’d probably look to oppose under such conditions in the Juvenile Turf.
Giant Sequoia
Here: Ryan Moore’s pick. Clearly well regarded but I thought he might have got beaten last time out if his stablemate had kept to his line. Looks more of a stayer but should improve plenty again for his latest start and he’s bred to be good, I just wonder if others might have more speed at this point in their careers.
At the BC: Looks more of a 3-year-old type but that hasn’t stopped horses like Masar and Gstaad contesting the Juvenile Turf and going on to win European Classics. Resolute Racing part-ownership suggests that a trip to Keeneland will very much be on the cards if he wins here and, should he do so, would arguably be the best 2-year-old colt in training. Would clearly have every chance under such circumstances and we could be looking at a Lake Victoria sort of price – probably with the same outcome.
Haffner
Here: O’Brien second string on jockey bookings. Behind Dr Rascal at Goodwood but stable was in moderate form there and he looked to have improved again when winning the Acomb at York last time out. Every chance on ratings and form and should take another step forward again, while stall 7 may allow him to sidle upside the pace.
At the BC: Hard to knock him. His trainer has already stated this American part-owned colt is tailor made for the race and, crucially, he’s already in by virtue of that Acomb win. Justify colt who should have no issue with conditions and a top three finish here should ensure he’s amongst the market leaders on the day; I’d make him favourite at this stage given the ability he’s shown and the fact that he’s basically certain to run.
Monogram
Here: Just a debut win to his name so far but he could hardly have been more impressive here, showing a tremendous turn of foot under an educational ride and overcoming obvious greenness in the process. Subject of substantial hype prior to that race and he looks like a colt who has the potential to be right out of the top drawer. He’s favourite here despite the deep field and there’s every chance we might see something special if he’s streetwise enough against some more experienced, and very talented, rivals.
At the BC: Tricky one to weigh up as owners and trainer are sporting and have had a lot of Breeders’ Cup success in the past, but this one feels like a horse they might take steadily with next year in mind. We don’t know what he’s capable of ultimately, and he may bomb out here, but if he wins you can guarantee he’ll be favourite for next year’s 2000 Guineas. Dam won the Athenia Stakes at Belmont before running 8th in the F&M Turf in 2021 and his wicked turn of foot would be ideal for the Juvenile Turf.
Porto Vecchio
Here: Seemingly unfancied on debut but produced a professional display to win over this course and distance. Well-bred brother to an Irish 1000 Guineas winner, he has plenty to find on bare form but could be anything still.
At the BC: Again much will depend on the level he can run to here, but I would consider him an unlikely runner given his connections and overall profile.
Trean
Here: Big eye-catcher on debut before bombing out next time. Put that right at Galway two back and improved again to finish second to Haffner at York last time out. Should improve again but needs to.
At the BC: Good level of form and should be well suited by conditions; would be amongst the market leaders, albeit vulnerable, assuming he runs to his mark here.
Bar One Flying Five Stakes (G1) – winner gets a guaranteed berth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
18 runners here so I’ll focus on a handful of key contenders for the sake of brevity.
Our sprinters aren’t very good, highlighted by the fact that Comanche Brave won the July Cup with such ease having been kicked out of the way in Hong Kong and the Middle East. This strong-travelling sort should relish travelling off a strong pace in the Turf Sprint, however, but might find the front-runners too far gone by the time he gets going.
Time For Sandals looked unlucky not to beat Bacio in the Nunthorpe last time out. She’s so inconsistent it’s hard to know what you’ll get but a strongly run five-furlongs is her optimum.
She was behind Rumstar and Starlust there, although probably should have finished in front of the pair. Rumstar usually comes up short at the top level while 2024 Turf Sprint winner Starlust has returned to the track following a failed campaign at stud. He’s coming back to his best form but I feel like these runners were a bit flattered to get so close to Bacio, who probably found the ground a bit slow and raced into a headwind. I personally struggle to see any of them being him on his own patch at this stage.
