By ITM Staff
ITM Plus · Breeders’ Cup Package
This One’s on Us
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Join ITM Plus →Last week in The Farewell Factor, PTF looked at European stallion prospects having one last run at the Breeders’ Cup. The record was ugly. Since 2011, 14 European-trained colts arrived with retirement already announced, and only one won. Their prices said they should have won about two. The theory was that a farewell can be a shot to nothing rather than a real target.
The horse who sparked it never made it to Keeneland. Ombudsman was ruled out on Oct. 21, four days after his Champion Stakes win. John Gosden told the Press Association it wasn’t fair to ask him to fly, quarantine and “run back within 14 days with a long journey in the middle” (Irish Field, Oct. 21).
So let’s flip the question around. If the afterthought runs are the problem, which of this year’s 45 European starters were actually aimed at Keeneland? We went back through every published quote since the spring to find out. It’s not a scientific study. It’s a jumping-off point, and a good excuse to share some interesting stuff about the Europeans.
First, Europeans in general are worth respecting
Farewells aside, European runners as a group have beaten their odds at recent Breeders’ Cups. ITM partner Rob Dove ran a backtest of 77 Breeders’ Cup races from 2019 through 2025 (2023 is missing from his data).
| Based | Starters | Wins | Wins the tote implied | Actual vs implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe | 151 | 21 | 12.7 | 1.66 |
| Japan | 33 | 3 | 1.9 | 1.61 |
| USA | 716 | 57 | 63.0 | 0.91 |
The American betting public has tended to let the Europeans go off too big. That fits The Farewell Factor’s own split, where older European turf horses who raced on after the Breeders’ Cup won 25 of 154 at 1.53 times their implied chances. Our guess is that the ones who come with a plan are the ones driving that number. Fair warning: that’s a theory, not a finding.
How we sorted them
For every European-trained starter in the final fields, we looked for the first published quote that pointed the horse at the Breeders’ Cup or at America.
- Planned (18): connections named the Breeders’ Cup or a trip to America in the summer, before the autumn trials. Some were firm targets and some were options floated after a big win.
- Late (15): the first mention came in the last few weeks, usually after a plan elsewhere fell through or a result opened the door.
- No mention (12): we found nothing published about a Breeders’ Cup plan. That doesn’t mean there wasn’t one. Plenty of barns just don’t talk.
The line between an option and a plan is blurry. When Aidan O’Brien says a filly could go to America, that’s not the same as Willie Mullins saying he’s working back from Keeneland. We’ve kept the quotes in so you can judge for yourself.
The planners
The firmest plans belong to Ethical Diamond, Blue Bolt, Comanche Brave, Libertango, Survie, Notable Speech and Benvenuto Cellini. Their people were talking about Keeneland in June, July or August and planning the autumn around it.
| Horse | Race (post) | Trainer | First mention | What they said |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benvenuto Cellini | Turf (2) | Aidan O’Brien | Jun 28 | “well suited for America — fast ground with pace on” (Irish Examiner) |
| Ballinea Star | Juvenile Fillies Turf (14) | Robson de Aguiar | Jun 27 | “Breeders’ Cup [Juvenile Fillies’ Turf] in mind for her too” (Irish Field) |
| Blue Bolt | F&M Turf (12) | Andrew Balding | Jul 10 | “We’ll work back from something like the Breeders’ Cup” (Barry Mahon, Racing Post) |
| Comanche Brave | Turf Sprint (7) | Donnacha O’Brien | Jul 13 | “The Breeders’ Cup would be a big target for him” (PA) |
| Florida Bay | Juvenile Turf (3) | Aidan O’Brien | Jul 23 | Aidan O’Brien: “something like the Breeders’ Cup could be an aim in time” (Tally-Ho Stud) |
| Diamond Necklace | Turf (12) | Aidan O’Brien | Jul 30 | “she could be a Breeders’ Cup filly” (PA) |
| Survie | Turf (11) | George Boughey | Aug 2 | “The Breeders’ Cup is always in the back of our minds” (NYRA) |
| Ethical Diamond | Turf (1) | Willie Mullins | Aug 6 | “We’re looking at the Breeders’ Cup and then working back from there” (Racing Post) |
| Sun Goddess | Juvenile Fillies Turf (9) | Aidan O’Brien | Aug 9 | “she could go to America at the end” (Sporting Life) |
| True Love | Mile (12) | Aidan O’Brien | Aug 9 | “she would probably end up in America” (Sporting Life) |
| Libertango | Juvenile Turf Sprint (3) | George Boughey | Aug 12 | “It will be the sprint at Keeneland rather than the mile” (Aug 20, ITV) |
| Tiffany | Turf (10) | Sir Mark Prescott | Aug 14 | “get brave and go to America for the Breeders’ Cup or… run in the Arc” (Irish Field) |
| Haffner | Juvenile Turf (4) | Aidan O’Brien | Aug 19 | “no problem going to a Breeders’ Cup Mile” (Sporting Life) |
| Starlust | Turf Sprint (13) | Ralph Beckett | Aug 21 | “We’d love to go back to America” (PA) |
| Notable Speech | Mile (8) | Charlie Appleby | Aug 22 | “we can head straight to the Breeders’ Cup now” (ITV) |
| Sale Shark | Juvenile Turf (9) | Hugo Palmer | Aug 22 | “we’d probably be looking at the Breeders’ Cup” if he made the frame in the Flying Childers (PA) |
| Lake Forest | Mile (2) | William Haggas | Aug 25 | “we might look at the Breeders’ Cup Mile with him” (Sean Graham, PA) |
| El Cordobes | Turf (5) | Charlie Appleby | Sep 20 | “likes quick and flat tracks there in America” (NYRA); ran in last year’s Turf too |
Two footnotes. Sale Shark’s plan was for the Juvenile Turf Sprint, but he’s drawn into the Juvenile Turf at a mile, so call him half a planner. El Cordobes is here on last year’s precedent more than any 2026 quote.
The late arrivals
Fifteen Europeans only came onto the Breeders’ Cup radar from mid-September on. Some are improving 2-year-olds whose form opened the door. Others had a plan elsewhere that changed.
| Horse | Race (post) | Trainer | First mention | The story |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moonrise | Juvenile Turf Sprint (1) | Andrew Balding | Sep 4 | Balding said the Breeders’ Cup “could come on the agenda at some stage” (PA) |
| Folsom Blues | Juvenile Turf (10) | Joseph O’Brien | Sep 13 | “We had America in the back of our mind as well, before this race” (PA) |
| Man’s Best Friend | Juvenile Turf (11) | Aidan O’Brien | Sep 28 | Listed as a possible Juvenile Turf starter (HRN, Ron Flatter) |
| Hell of A Spin | Juvenile Turf Sprint (11) | Adrian Keatley | Sep 28 | First mention in PA copy |
| Bay City Roller | Turf (13) | George Scott | Oct 1 | The summer dream was an Arc. In June, Scott said “We’ll be hoping for an Alpinista-type Arc” (Racing Post) |
| Amusingly | Juvenile Fillies Turf (10) | Francis-Henri Graffard | Oct 4 | “I’ve no idea if she’ll go to the Breeders’ Cup, I need to speak to the team” (PA) |
| Green Empress | Juvenile Fillies Turf (1) | Joseph O’Brien | Oct 4 | Would “discuss with the owners whether she’ll go to America” after the Boussac (PA) |
| Miss Yechance | Turf Sprint (14) | Karl Burke | Oct 4 | Before her Abbaye win, Jack Nicholls said “the plan is maybe to go back to Dubai” (Sporting Life, Sep 20) |
| Precise | F&M Turf (11) | Aidan O’Brien | Oct 5 | “She could drop back a furlong and go for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf” (PA) |
| Mussab | Juvenile Turf Sprint (5) | Richard Fahey | Oct 9 | Peter Fahey: “if all is OK with him tomorrow the Breeders’ Cup (Juvenile Turf Sprint) is the plan with him” (PA) |
| Great Barrier Reef | Juvenile Turf (14) | Aidan O’Brien | Oct 18 | First mention after his last run |
| Qirat | Mile (7) | Ralph Beckett | Oct 19 | PA copy. Last year Barry Mahon said invitations were coming from America and Hong Kong (ITV, Jul 30, 2025) |
| Red Letter | F&M Turf (4) | Ger Lyons | Oct 19 | PA copy |
| Hotazhell | Turf (7) | Jessica Harrington | Oct 20 | Shane Foley: “it was either take on Calandagan and Ombudsman there or take our chance in America” (PA) |
| Primetime Emmy | Juvenile Turf Sprint (12) | Francis-Henri Graffard | Oct 26 | Owner-breeder Matthew Sandblom: “running on tighter American tracks, should suit her well” (BloodHorse) |
Hotazhell is the purest late call of the lot. It was the Champion Stakes or Keeneland, and Ombudsman was in the Champion. Hotazhell is also a farewell, which brings us to the next group.
The farewells
Three Europeans are running here with their next career already announced. They don’t all fit the shot-to-nothing profile, though.
- Notable Speech (Mile) is a farewell and a planner at once. On Aug. 22, Charlie Appleby called it “the final year of his career” and said “I think it’s probably straight to the Breeders’ Cup Mile now” (Godolphin.com). He then won the Woodbine Mile on Sept. 12 and came back to this as the target. If the farewell curse is about afterthoughts, he’s the test case for whether a planned farewell is different.
- Tiffany (Turf) is also both. Sir Mark Prescott had America on the table in August, and in September he told the Racing Post he’d have tried the Japan Cup too, “but she sells the next day” (Racing Post, Sept. 10). She’s in the Tattersalls December Mares Sale.
- Hotazhell (Turf) is the classic profile: a late call and a farewell. His stud deal with Widden and Haras d’Etreham was announced in September, with a Champions Day swansong in mind. Instead, Shane Foley said the owners are from just down the road from Keeneland, “so it might be a nice last hurrah” (At The Races, Oct. 20).
A few others are in limbo:
- Blue Bolt (F&M Turf): Andrew Balding said on Oct. 3, “if she stays in training, she would have all year to take on the boys” (Sporting Life). She was switched from the Mile on Oct. 26 (Racing Post).
- Comanche Brave (Turf Sprint): Donnacha O’Brien thinks “there’s a chance he might stay in training again next year” (Racing Post, Sept. 13).
- Miss Yechance (Turf Sprint): she’s in the Keeneland Championship Sale on Oct. 28, two days before she runs (Racing Post, Oct. 21).
- Starlust (Turf Sprint): the reverse farewell. The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner went to stud, came back to training in May because of poor fertility (Paulick Report via Yahoo, May 8), and after his Nunthorpe second Ralph Beckett said, “We’d love to go back to America.”
The quiet ones
We found no published Breeders’ Cup plan for 12 European starters before they turned up in the entries:
- Juvenile Turf Sprint: Velozee (Paddy Twomey), Crownbreaker (Kevin Philippart de Foy), Force Noir (Robson de Aguiar), Final Objective (Hamad Al Jehani)
- Juvenile Fillies Turf: Curracloe (Johnny Murtagh), Alwaysanangel (Joseph O’Brien), Scommessa Sicura (Andrew Balding)
- Juvenile Turf: Avec Toi (Christopher Head), Pikachu (Charlie Johnston)
- Mile: Puerto Rico (Aidan O’Brien)
- Turf: Johanna Walsh (Joseph O’Brien)
- F&M Turf: Jancis (Willie McCreery)
Most are 2-year-olds, and juvenile plans rarely get talked about until the form is in. Silence isn’t evidence of an afterthought, so we wouldn’t knock any of these on that basis alone. Puerto Rico is the odd one. Aidan O’Brien floated him for last year’s Juvenile Turf, and we found nothing linking him to this year’s Mile.
What to do with it
This isn’t a betting system, and 45 horses won’t prove anything. As a tiebreaker, though, PTF likes it. When two European turf horses look similar on paper, lean toward the one whose people circled Keeneland back in the summer. Be a little warier of the one who’s here because Plan A fell through. And when it’s a farewell, ask whether it’s Notable Speech’s kind (planned since August) or a last-minute last hurrah.
We’ll track how the three groups do on Friday and Saturday and report back after the Breeders’ Cup. Every European runner’s full profile, with dated quotes, is on our Narrative Past Performances pages.
Sources
- The Farewell Factor: Europe’s stallion prospects at the Breeders’ Cup, ITM, Oct. 20, 2026
- Gosden rules Ombudsman out of Breeders’ Cup Turf, Irish Field, Oct. 21, 2026
- Rob Dove, Breeders’ Cup backtest (2019–2025, excluding 2023), shared with ITM Oct. 26, 2026
- First-mention quotes: linked in each table row above (Racing Post, PA, Sporting Life, ITV Racing, Irish Field, Irish Examiner, NYRA, At The Races, Godolphin.com)
