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Renegade Looks As Expected
Edition No. 7 · Thursday, April 16, 2026 · 16 Days to Post
🏇 Renegade Works at Palm Beach
The potential Kentucky Derby favorite put in his first breeze since the Arkansas Derby this morning at Palm Beach Downs. Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form clocked Renegade going four furlongs in :48.91, with a strong gallop-out of three-quarters in 1:01.88 in company with stablemate Powershift. Follow Welsch on X for more Derby contender workout updates.
“Renegade looked the part of the potential Kentucky Derby favorite working in relative anonymity at Palm Beach Downs.” — Mike Welsch, DRF
A little context on the workmate: Powershift is a twice-raced maiden who’s been beaten by The Puma and Emerging Market in his two starts — the latter effort coming in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Speaking of Renegade — we went deep on him in a new Monster Pod yesterday with Duke Matties. PTF, JK, and NHC Hall of Famer Duke break down every angle on the Into Mischief colt.
▶ Watch the Renegade Monster Pod on YouTube
📣 See PTF and JK Live in Lexington & Louisville
Wednesday, April 29 · 6:30–9:00 PM
Final Answers: The ITM Oaks & Derby Handicapping Event
The Manchester Hotel · Lexington, KY
Presented by Medallion Racing. Premium open bar, buffet, and a live taping of the Final Answers show with JK (Fox Sports 1), PTF, Phillip Shelton (Medallion Racing), and Maggie Wolfendale-Morley (Fox Sports/NYRA). Your ticket includes Friday and Saturday PPs. $155 — tickets won’t be available for long. Get yours here.
Thursday, April 30 · 5:30 PM
Derby Inquiries with PTF and JK
The Galt House Lobby · Louisville, KY
The questions we need to answer before the Run for the Roses. Free and open to the public. Book your Derby week stay at The Galt House and save $500/night.
🎙️ Pavlovian Deep Dive with Ryan Anderson
JK and PTF sat down with Ryan Anderson to break down the Reddam Racing homebred. The Doug O’Neill-trained colt is coming off a narrow runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby and brings 70 points into the Derby, sitting 11th on the leaderboard.
▶ Watch the Pavlovian Monster Pod on YouTube
🏁 Saturday: Sovereignty-Journalism-White Abarrio at Oaklawn
PTF’s full breakdown of the Oaklawn Handicap is live now at At The Races. The three-way showdown between Sovereignty, Journalism, and White Abarrio is the headline race of the weekend — Sovereignty’s four-year-old debut, Journalism looking to extend his momentum, and White Abarrio adding another dimension to an already loaded field.
👉 Read PTF’s Oaklawn Handicap Guide at attheraces.com
💰 Fixed Odds Coming to Kentucky: It’s Official
The Kentucky legislature overrode Governor Beshear’s veto on HB 904 yesterday — House 67-7, Senate 26-5 — and fixed-odds wagering on horse racing is officially coming to Kentucky. The law takes effect in 90 days.
What this means for bettors: you’ll eventually be able to lock in a price on a Derby horse instead of playing the pari-mutuel tote. Eventually. Tracks have until April 1, 2027 to update their totalizator systems, and whether sportsbook apps can offer fixed-odds sooner than that is still an open question.
The bigger story — whether prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket can offer Kentucky Derby contracts nationally, and whether the racing industry can do anything about it — remains unresolved. We’re working on a full piece on this with some heavy-hitter voices from both sides. More soon.
If you missed yesterday’s explainer, catch up here.
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🔄 Field Watch: Churchill Notebook
Chief Wallabee is settled at Churchill Downs after arriving Monday. Bill Mott will add blinkers for the Derby.
Still waiting on Chad Brown’s decisions on Ottinho and Iron Honor. Entries close April 25.
Kentucky-bred UAE Derby runner-up Six Speed has arrived in the UK for quarantine, taking the next step on his journey home to Louisville. The Bhupat Seemar-trained son of Not This Time, racing for an American ownership syndicate, was second to Wonder Dean in the UAE Derby on March 28. Full story from Michael Adolphson at Racing 971. Michael will be joining JK and PTF on an upcoming Monster Podcast to preview both Six Speed and Wonder Dean — stay tuned.
🎆 Thunder Over Louisville Kicks Off Derby Season
Thunder Over Louisville lights up Saturday night — the 37th annual opening ceremony of the Kentucky Derby Festival. This year’s theme: “Thunder in the U.S.A.” honoring America’s 250th anniversary.
📋 ICYMI
👉 Yesterday’s Daily to Derby: Can I Bet the Derby on Kalshi?
👉 ITM Triple Crown Draft show on YouTube
👉 Free Kentucky Derby PPs — 25 horses, no paywall
👉 Derby OddsWatch
❓ Today’s Open Question
Renegade worked impressively at Palm Beach Downs today. Is he your Derby pick, or is he the favorite you want to beat?
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📚 Previous Editions
Edition 6 · April 15, 2026 — Can I Bet the Derby on Kalshi?
Edition 5 · April 14, 2026 — The Triple Crown Is Changing
