The final Saturday card of this 2026 Spring Meet at Keeneland has a pair of graded stakes races as anchors. The Grade 3 Ben Ali and the Grade 2 Visitlex Elkhorn Stakes will be run this afternoon, where the first post is set for 1:00 (ET).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 5 | 5,2 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 4,9 | 8 | DBL, PK3, PK4 |
| 3 | 13 | 13,7,10 | DBL, PK3 | ||
| 4 | 8 | 8,7 | 6 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 5 | 10 | 10,4 | 1 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 6 | 2 | 2,9 | 7 | DBL, PK3, PK6, All-Turf PK3 (R6,R8 R10) | |
| 7 | 7 | 7 | 1 | DBL, PK3, PK5, | |
| 8 | 6 | 6 | 1 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 9 | 6 | 6 | 2 | DBL, $3 Late PK3 | |
| 10 | 6 | 6,12 | 5,3 | DBL | |
| 11 | 9 | 9,3,10 |
Race 1:
The Saturday program gets under way with a maiden special weight race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles over the main track. This is not a great field,, so I’ll take a chance with Babysitter (#5) on top, assuming that her odds hover around her 9-2 morning line figure. The dam was definitely bred for the turf, but she was graded stakes placed in multiple routes on the synthetic courses. McKinzie has produced some Grade 1 winning dirt routers, including Baeza, Chancer McPatrick, and Scottish Lassie. Brendan Walsh will add blinkers for her dirt debut. I suspect Song of Sarah (#2) will go off at odds shorter than her 2-1 morning line. She definitely took a decent step forward in her last start when going two turns for the second time in her career. She ran against credible firsts in her first two starts where the winner came back to win stakes races in their next starts. There’s clearly a class edge here and the fact that so many others have failed in multiple chances at this level would make me comfortable riding with these two in the multi-race wagers.
Race 2:
A field of nine has been assembled for this $20K N2L claiming race for three year olds and up, going 1 ⅛ miles over the main track. This feels like a bargain basement kind of race where high priced horses, Whiskey Shot (#8) and Tiz Freedom (#9) drop in for a tag for the first time. It’s one thing for a six figure horse to drop in for a tag for the first time, but it’s another thing when they’re going straight to the $20K level. When I see more than one horse like this in a given race, that immediately tells me that I’m going to need this to be a spread race if I’m going to get involved in the multi-race sequences. While they have a clear class edge, I’m questioning Whiskey Shot being able to handle the nine furlong trip while making his first start since September. Tiz Freedom broke his maiden on the turf. He has three dirt starts and he’s been beaten by a combined 38 lengths in those races. None of that makes me want to be too invested in either runner. D Day Sky (#1) is the top pick, making his third start since joining Peter Eurton’s barn. He’s shown improvement in his last few starts and is now making his third start off the layoff. His maiden win did come at this distance, and while that was a long time ago, I do think Eurton has him trending back in the right direction. Bonafide (#4) is moving up in class, but his figures in two turn races would likely keep him in the conversation in this race. He relished the slop three starts ago at the Fair Grounds when winning in a $12,500 maiden claimer. He struggled when sprinting two back, but he was sharper when getting back to a route in his last start.
Race 3:
Fillies and mares will go 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course in this N1X allowance race. Family (#11) is cross-entered at Horseshoe Indy on Tuesday where she’d be 5-2 in a small allowance field. While I’m not crazy about her in this spot, should her connections decide to keep here at home in Indiana, that would allow Something Stronger (#13) to draw into this race. I think this Justify filly makes a lot of sense if she’s in. She’s had to overcome wide trips in her two tries in turf sprints, and she’ll likely have to do the same once again. Her maiden breaking effort at Churchill last spring was impressive when going five furlongs. She wasn’t as effective in two turn races and she was dull when trying the dirt in a race taken off the turf. Her last race was better than it looks on paper, as she had to deal with being outside of a riderless horse.That forced her out wider than I think James Graham would have preferred going on a course where the rails were all the way out. She finished with interest and get her head down on the wire to win the photo for place. Capturing (#7) cut back to a sprint for the first time when going five furlongs at Gulfstream in her latest effort. She’s never finished off the board in her five career starts. She was closer to the front end when going two turns, but she closed from out of it in her last start. That’s never an easy assignment on the Gulfstream course and by virtue of going 5 ½ furlongs, the early pace should be a shade lighter for this race. Pletcher had a winner with a horse that was 8-1 on the morning line yesterday, the same morning line number for this filly. Hot Mash (#10) is the one beat in this race. She is one that could be any kind for John Servis. She crushed her opposition on debut at Ellis this past summer. That effort was good enough to send her to Canada to run in the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes. She was second in that spot, beaten only a half length. She’s been sidelined since and she’ll make her three year old debut against some decent older runners. If she runs back to her debut, she’s going to be awfully tough in this race.
Race 4:
Three year olds and up will go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in this $30K starter allowance. In addition to having a start in a $30K claiming race or less, horses also must qualify under the N3L condition to participate in this race. I want some prices in this race, as the shorter priced runners on the morning line are not doing it for me. Ice Shot (#8) is the top pick for me. He’s facing winners for the first time after breaking his maiden at Aqueduct in a $40K maiden claiming race in February. He has continued to improve since being gelded before his first start of the year. I think there should be a solid pace in front of him to set up his late action. Protective (#7) always carried high expectations, but he was never the high level horses that his former connections hoped he would be. However, he has been generally consistent throughout his career. Mary Howard claimed him for $30K at Turfway this winter and she kept him in decent form. He was a non-factor on the turf earlier in the meet, but I think he makes sense getting back on the dirt. Apprentice Brooke Bays will get to make her Keeneland debut when riding him. Armed and Dangerous (#6) comes to town from Laurel to make his third start off the layoff today. He had a spot of trouble in his last start where he finished second best. He’s managed to be fairly consistent since breaking his maiden six starts ago.
Race 5:
$50K maiden claimers will go 1 1/16 miles on the main track here. Street Party (#10) is an interesting player in this spot. He just missed in an optional maiden claiming race at the Fair Grounds in his last start. He was battling early and often in that race, but he just couldn’t get by the race winner. He clearly took a step forward from a physical perspective since his last start at Churchill and his most recent try in New Orleans. Blue Mountains (#4) gets back on traditional dirt for Michael McCarthy. He finished a little less than 10 lengths behind Commandment in his last dirt start. That one will be one of the shorter prices in the Derby, two weeks from today. He wasn’t as effective in his last two starts on the Tapeta at Turfway. I like the drop and the surface switch for him. On deeper tickets, Good Willie (#1) makes some sense here. He’s bred to appreciate the dirt, despite racing on the turf in his first two tries. He adds blinkers, which may help him while drawing the rail in this race. He’s also dropping in for a tag for the first time in his brief career this afternoon.
Race 6:
The $3 All-Turf Pick-3 is very playable this afternoon, and I think there’s a live longshot that could splash the pot in this N2L allowance race for three year old fillies. Classic Glide (#2) will start off at 15-1 in this race. I think this three year old daughter of Classic Empire is going to be completely overlooked in the wagering in this N1X allowance race going 1 3/16 miles on the turf. She ran two sharp races on the turf to start her career, including a game third place finish behind Imaginationthelady in a maiden race at Kentucky Downs. That one just missed in the Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes earlier in this meet. This filly came here last fall and tried the dirt for the first time in a winning effort. She was equally as good in starter allowance company over at Churchill when making her last start as a two year old. She raced in tough spots to start her three year old season, facing the likes of Bella Ballerina, Explora, and Counting Stars in dirt races at the Fair Grounds and Oaklawn. She comes back to the turf for her third start off the layoff, which I think suits her well. She gets Lasix for the first time this afternoon.I think biggest threat to her pulling off the upset will be Kentucky Belle (#9). Brad Cox continues to send out live runners. This Justify filly showed potential last year when getting on the turf here and at Churchill. She came back with a strong effort at Gulfstream last month, suggesting that she has taken a decent step forward from two to three. She’ll need to continue to build off that momentum, but it’s hard to take a firm stand against anything from this barn right now. Surprise Ending (#7) is another runner that would be worth covering in this race. She was an upset winner in her debut at the beginning of the year. She came back at the end of January and was a little flat when facing Sister Troienne in the Sweetest Chant Stakes. She;s been given some time off and she returns at a level where she should be more competitive. She’s more of a deep closer though and I’m not completely convinced she’s going to get a great pace setup.
Race 7:
A field of seven older runners will sprint six furlongs in this optional $80K claiming/N2X allowance race. Wesley Ward is holding a fairly strong hand in this race, sending out both Floodlites (#1) and Whatchatalkinabout (#7). Whatchatalkinabout feels like the one to beat in this race. He was a Grade 3 winner, scoring in the John A. Nerud Stakes at the Big A last May. His summer and fall form was a little spotty, but all three subpar efforts in that span came against stakes company. He didn’t seem to like the course when catching a sealed and muddy course at Saratoga at the end of July. After recovering nicely and just missing at this level at the end of the Saratoga meet, he shipped here to run in the Phoenix Stakes where he was third behind his stablemate in the Grade 2 Phoenix. Ward tried him in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in his last start where he was never a factor. He’s fired big races when he’s been fresh, and I think he’s going to be a short priced winner in this spot. Floodlites is the backup after finding his best form in his last two starts of 2025. He came back to the dirt in both of those races after six straight tries on turf or synthetic. He’ll need to pick up where he left off and the rail draw likely commits him to going for the lead.
Race 8:
The Late Pick-4 begins with a conditioned allowance for older horses sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. I’m going to lean in to Works for Me (#6) in this race. I see this son of Daddy Long Legs as a potential single in this allowance contest. He was a stakes winner in a turf sprint at the end of his three year old campaign. He’s only had four starts since and three of them were clustered together last spring. He came back a little flat in stakes company when going five furlongs at Tampa in his last start. He should be more fit in this race and the price should stay relatively close to his 4-1 morning line figure, assuming the field stays intact. I think the Ward runner is going to be overbet, which should keep his number more reasonable. I’ll back up with Troubleshooting (#1) from the rail. He won the Grade 3 Bryan Station Stakes in this course in the fall as the very lukewarm favorite. He was stretching out after winning a Grade 1 6 ½ furlong sprint at Kentucky Downs. He was empty in the Commonwealth Turf Stakes at Churchill at the end of his three year old season. Greg Foley picks this allowance race to launch his 2026 campaign. He was strong in his comeback race on this course last year at this distance, so we know he likes being here in Lexington. There are some fast horses in this race, so he’s still going to have to improve. He still has a lot of potential, and seeing that his worst races have come at Churchill, I like that Foley found this spot for him.
Race 9, The Grade 3 Ben Ali Stakes:
I think Batten Down (#6) is a standout in this 1 3/16 mile contest for older horses on the main track. He is coming off a strong effort to score in the Pig Trail Overnight Stakes at Oaklawn where he was asked to go 12 furlongs that day. He’s making his third start off the layoff today and he appears to be trending in the right direction once again. He’s a son of Tapit and Close Hatches, so he’s about as blue-blooded as they come. He was a Grade 3 winner as a three year old, scoring in the Ohio Derby. He missed the majority of his four year old season after a pair of shaky starts, but Mott seems to have righted the ship. I like his chances quite a bit in this race today. Awesome Aaron (#2) is a longer priced option here that is worth considering in this spot. He was flat in the Oaklawn Mile when making his season debut, but that was a loaded race. In addition to talent he was up against that day. He drew a wide post in a race loaded with front end speed. He couldn’t keep pace with the likes of Nu What’s New, East Avenue, and Full Serrano. He was really good at this time last year, and his win in the Pimlico Special at this distance was a very good effort. The pace scenario figures to be much more friendly for him today.
Race 10, The Grade 2 Visitlex Elkhorn Stakes:
This Grade 2, 1 ½ mile turf event is usually a very competitive race and this year’s edition is no different. I’m interested to see how Burnham Square (#6) continues to evolve as he works through the second act of his career. He was a fringe contender in the Kentucky Derby last year, finishing 6th in that race after winning the Toyota Blue Grass here last spring. He was struggling to compete against the top flight horses in that division, so Ian Wilkes gave him a shot on the grass in the Grade 3 Nashville Derby at Kentucky Downs last summer. He was excellent when closing well to finish second in that race. Wilkes gave him some time off and brought him back in a one mile allowance race at Gulfstream on the Fountain of Youth undercard. He ran well to be second that day when going a little shorter than what is probably his best distance. This will be his first start at 12 furlongs on either surface. I suspect that if the Belmont last year was contested at the 1 ½ distance at Belmont Park, Wilkes would have taken a shot with him in that race. I do think the distance will suit him and I do believe he will run better than he did in his first start back. While post positions aren’t massively important in these marathon races, the outside stall can still be tricky, especially in larger fields. That being said, I still believe in Anegada (#12) here. He’s an improving four year old that won the John B. Connally Stakes at Sam Houston two back and was a game third in the Mac Diarmida Stakes at Gulfstream in his most recent start. These turf marathon races are specialties for Maker and this one would be sitting on a bigger race after pairing his last two Beyer Figures. The distance is not a question mark for Fleetfoot (#5), who was an impressive winner of the John Forbes Memorial Stakes going two miles on the turf at Far Hills in New Jersey. He was a little flat in his next start, finishing 4th in the Grade 2 Red Smith Stakes at Aqueduct. Barry Foley gave him some time off and now he brings him back in this Grade 2 contest. The class will be question for this Irish bred son of Teofilo. Utah Beach (#3) is still worth considering as well. He was the winner in this race last year, getting up in the shadow of the wire to pull off the 11-1 upset. He ran a credible race in the Grade 2 Sycamore on this course in the fall as well. He’s making his second start off the layoff after a flat effort in the Kentucky Cup Classic at Turfway. He might have lost a step, but I do think we’ll see a better showing from him this afternoon as well.
Race 11:
We’ll close things out with a maiden special weight for fillies and mares going a little over seven furlongs on the Beard Course. I think the second time starters have the edge in this spot, and while the Fair Grounds race that produced both Be the Light (#10) and Fast Gun (#3) looks tough, I think the Santa Anita shipper for Mike McCarthy is worth a look. Govern (#9) ran against a loaded Baffert filly when debuting at Santa Anita in a 5 ½ furlong dash last month. She ran evenly while never really having a shot of catching that front-runner. The added distance feels like a plus for her. While the Beyer Figure assigned to her was on the lighter side, the Equibase speed figure seems to indicate that her effort in that race was closer to the common Fair Grounds race. John Velazquez takes the mount this afternoon. I’ll use both the Fair Grounds runners as well. Steve Asmussen wins tons of races each year across the country, but his runners have struggled in recent years here at Keeneland. However, when he does connect here, his runners usually offer decent value. He’ll send out Fast Gun who is starting at 6-1, while Brad Cox’s Be the Light is 3-1. Cox is red hot and his horses are often very dangerous in their second career starts. The pedigrees for both are solid and both fillies look like horses that have a future at two turns.
2026 Spring Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners: 20/84 (23.8%), $144.90, $1.73 ROI
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
