Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Sunday, 4/19/26 – By Eric Solomon

The last full week of racing ends with a nine race, Sunday afternoon card. The Palisades Stakes, which is a fascinating turf sprint for three year olds, will be the feature today. We’ll be back with the final three cards of the 2026 Spring Meet on Wednesday. First post for today’s program is set for 1:00 (ET). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll start the Sunday proceedings with a pair of nine furlong races on the dirt. The opener is a $50K claiming race for older runners. It’s hard to find a more attractive option than Tarantino (#3) in this race. While he doesn’t win a ton, many of his recent starts have come in graded stakes company. He came to New Orleans where he ran in optional claiming/N2X allowance races where he was entered with the $50K tag. He was competitive in both of those races, but he came up a bit short when facing better. He seems to have gotten over whatever was ailing him for the Pacific Classic and the Louisiana Handicap, four and three starts ago. If he runs back to his last two races, he should be in the Winner’s Circle. Carolo Rapido (#7) defected from a tougher spot earlier in the week in favor of this race. While he has to deal with the heavy favorite in this race, the rest of the field is not particularly deep. If the top pick falters in the stretch, he’s the one I’d trust to pick up the pieces.

Race 2:

Fillies and mares will also go nine furlongs in this $20K N2L claiming race. Brad Co and Irad Ortiz Jr. have been dominating both the trainer and jockey standings at this meet, so it’s hard to side against them. They are paired up with five horses on the card today. One is on the AE list in the 6th race, and the runner in the 9th race is a first time starter. The other three runners are all but certain to be the post time favorites in their heats. That includes Bartender (#1), who feels like the most vulnerable runner from this barn on the card. Her last race was dull. While she’s dropping in class, she’s being asked to try to defeat her elders when going nine furlongs for the first time. I wonder if he would be the favorite if  Cox and Ortiz weren’t involved. While there isn’t a ton of speed in this race, I’m going to be looking elsewhere because I’m not sure how much I trust her in the late stages of this race. Country Club (#5) is the clear alternative and the top pick for me in this spot. She gets back on the dirt after three straight synthetic starts at Turfway. She’s never caught a fast dirt track in the afternoon, so I can forgive her dull effort on this course last fall. She’s been better since going two turns and I think she can beat this group. Tutta Bella (#7) is one of two longer priced options that I’d be looking at underneath and as backup in the multi-race wagers. Her only start on a dirt track also came in the slop in a race that was originally carded for the turf at Horseshoe Indy. She ran well enough that day and she put together two other nice races after that start, breaking her maiden two back. She was dull when facing winners for the first time. She had an outside post and a very wide trip with a spot of trouble on the first turn as well. She was asked to produce an early bid, but she was empty late. If she takes to the course, I’d expect a more competitive effort. Nan O’Hara (#3) is a longshot in this race, but she is trending up. She broke her maiden two back with bottom maidens at Turfway, but she was competitive when facing $15K-$10K N2L claimers in her last try. She keeps getting a little better for a lesser known trainer.

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will dash six furlongs in this $30K maiden claiming spot. Joe Sharp has a strong hand in this race, sending out a pair of runners. Shining Silver (#6) is a candidate to pull off the upset in this spot. She’s one who has shown speed and then faded in her three career starts. Her last two races have come against better competition at Turfway. She’s been off for a little more than two months, which has given Sharp time to get acclimated with her. He also sends out the morning line favorite, Gus’s Gal (#5). She has three career starts, two of which came on a wet dirt course at the Fair Grounds. She was competitive in both of those races, including her most recent try at this level. This is not the deepest field for the condition, so she feels like she has a serious shot. Red Raze (#7) is a deeper tickets play for me in this spot. There have been notable gaps in her running lines, making only two career starts. She tried two turns in her last start at Turfway. She’s dropping in class, which is a good angle for this barn. Keep in mind that both Spotted (#14) and Hot Gamer (#16) are second time starters that both stuck on the AE list. Both need some help to get into this field, but they are worth a look if they do participate. 

Race 4:

Three year olds and up will go 1 1/16 miles over the main track in this maiden special weight contest. I’m going to pass on the Bill Mott first time starter Commerce (#4), who is the second choice on the morning line in this race. He’s been working well, but Mott struggles with runners debuting at two turns. Unless the board is telling me otherwise, I’m going to try to beat him outright. Saugeen (#2) is an interesting choice in here. He;s a second time starter that has been moving well in the mornings for Josie Carroll. She hasn’t had too many starters at this meet, but she has visited the Winner’s Circle. She does well with second time starters. She’s 7-32 (22%) with second timer starters going from sprints to routes over the last five years. This Mendelssohn colt has drawn well for the race he wants to run and the price should be right. Nonolimbo (#3) starts in the next stall over with Luis Saez in the irons. He’s making his first start of 2026 and his 5th overall. One of those four starts came on the dirt in the slop and that was probably the best of those efforts. Darrin Miller had a winner here this week and he’ll send this one out this afternoon. Up Country (#9) figures to be the heavy favorite in this spot. He’s making his 7th career start and his third off the layoff this afternoon. He ran twice over the winter on the synthetic at Turfway, but his dirt efforts last fall were better. I’m a little worried about taking 6-5 on a horse that has lost six times and has to overcome a wide draw in a two turn race. He’s the class of the field, but at short odds, he could be a bit vulnerable.

Race 5:

One the nine race card this afternoon at Keeneland, there are 20 opportunities for horizontal, multi-race wagers. The 5th race is a part of nine of those 20 wagers, so being right in this spot is fairly critical. While I’d like to find a price in this seven furlong maiden special weight race, I think Final Story (#7) is a standout for the leading trainer and jockey. He debuted in a seven furlong race at Gulfstream last month. He stalked the pace and made a run at the front. He led at the top of the stretch, but he was collared late, losing by a ½ length. Cox had a winner with a nice second time starter in a maiden allowance race yesterday and I think he’s going to win another one here. A few prices to think about underneath could be Mouqeer (#4) and Desert Fox (#6). Mouqeer showed speed in his debut at the Fair Grounds before getting leg weary in the final furlong. The dam has been a productive broodmare. Steve Asmussen had a runner that finished third in the race Cox won yesterday and his runner did not garner much attention from the wagering public. Nicholas Vaccarezza sends out Desert Fox for his career debut. He’s a full brother to Epicenter, but the fact that he was sold in January of this year for $80K suggests to me that he’s not giving off the same kind of vibes as his Travers winning sibling. His last few works have shown improvement and this barn has popped with debuting longshots in the past. 

Race 6: 

The Late Pick-4 begins with a N2L allowance race going 1 3/16 miles over the turf course. Noble Dynasty (#10) is the play for me in this race.  I thought this horse had a chance in the Grade 3 Transylvania on Opening Day. However, he was shuffled to the back of the pack after breaking a beat slow. You could see the horse wanted to be a little closer, but Junior Alvarado would have had to concede a lot of ground going into the first turn to try to find a more comfortable spot for him. He was stacked up behind a wall of horses, so he was forced to tip out wide. He had to alter course at the top of the lane and had to deal with the race winner drifting into his path (while still clear) in midstretch. That was his first start of the year and I think he has a lot more ability than he showed that day. He was really good in the Central Park Stakes two starts ago in New York and I think that ungraded race was one of the better two year old turf races in the country last fall. I like the outside draw for him in this spot and the longer run into the first turn and the longer distance of this race in general should suit him well. McCready (#1) is worth a look in this race as well. He was a debut winner at Delaware in the fall before shipping to the Fair Grounds for the winter. He ran well in both starts there, including a game third place finish in the Black Gold Stakes.That was a productive race as the runner-up, Touch of Fire came back to win a race here a few days ago. Kravitz (#5) might be an interesting price play as well. It took him five tries to break his maiden, so this will be his first try against winners. I really liked his effort at Gulfstream in a nine furlong race to graduate last time out. He had to overcome breaking from the 12 hole on a course where the rails were all the way out. He was wide throughout the contest as he settled behind a pair of longshots that were breakaway leaders down the backstretch. He came with a wide bid and got the jump on the shorter prices that were running on late. He’ll need to improve in this spot, but that last race was the kind of effort that could go a long way toward his overall development. 

Race 7:

This N1X allowance race is another where the Cox and Ortiz duo feel like they have a significant edge over their rivals. Elnajd (#6) has two starts and two big efforts in six furlongs sprints at the Fair Grounds and Gulfstream. He stretches out to the about seven furlong distance over the Beard Course here at Keeneland, which should suit him just fine. He’s facing a lot of horses that have lingered at this condition, which certainly is a plus for him. I think he’s going to prove that he is faster than his ten rivals. Dr. Park (#1) is the backup play for me. He broke his maiden here last spring, but he sat out for the rest of the year. He resurfaced in an allowance race at Colonial Downs. He was flat in that race when facing a compact group, but he was in between horses with nowhere to run for a good part of that trip. I’d expect him to be more competitive in this spot today. 

Race 8. The $300K Palisades Stakes:

The featured race of the day is a 5 ½ furlong turf dash for three year olds. There was some rain yesterday so the course could be a little softer than it’s been for the better part of this meet. In addition, there’s a lot of early speed signed on for this contest, so whoever winds up setting the pace is likely going to have to work hard to do so. I’m looking for a horse that might be able to come from off the pace in the spot. Sandal’s Song (#6) makes his first start since June in this race for George Weaver. He was good enough to win the Royal Palm Juvenile Stakes on debut at Gulfstream in May. That effort earned him a spot in the starting gate in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. He ran well amidst that large field to finish third. Weaver has good numbers off the layoff, so assuming he’s developed some over the last ten months, I think he’ll fit in just fine with this group. Intricate Spirit (#11) won the Grade 3 Futurity in the fall at Belmont at the Big A. He was never a threat in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint as he was wide and locked in behind runners for the better part of that race. He came back in the Texas Glitter Stakes at Gulfstream on the Tapeta where he ran a respectable third. That race likely was a good starting point for him. He’s likely going to have to be a little farther off the pace than he’s used to, but I think he can handle that kind of trip. Schwarzenegger (#4) is the Wesley Ward entrant in this spot. The expectations have always been sky high for this son of Not This Time. He cost $950K at auction in 2024 and while his pedigree suggests that he could appreciate longer distances, he ran his first three starts in turf sprints. He had a huge lead on debut at the Spa, but Attfield came up late to nail him on the wire. He came back to win the Indian Summer Stakes on this course in October. He was quick enough to make the lead in the Breeders’ Cup, but he was caught late, finishing 5th by three lengths that day. It’s interesting to see Ward taking the blinkers off for this race, but that may wind up serving him well today. 

Race 9:

The week will conclude with an auction maiden special weight race for three year olds going seven furlongs. 16 are entered and as usual, only 12 will start. All four AE runners did draw into a race at this same condition on Thursday, so I’d assume that all four of them will not be competing this afternoon. I think you can get skinny in some races earlier in the Pick-5 sequence, so these last two races are going to be about coverage for me. I landed on Tom’s Cruising (#5) as the top pick in the finale today. He ran well enough to be 4th in his debut last month at Turfway in a race at this condition. He’s been working well in the morning and there’s reason to believe he can step forward in his second start. He’s a half brother to Copper Town, who was very good in his second career start. Horses sired by Tom’s d’Etat are winning 18% of the time in dirt sprints. Non Conforming (#2) might be worth a second look after falling apart in his last race at Gulfstream. That race came against open maiden special weight types and he’s been given a little extra time off after that effort. He finished in the money in two starts at this level in Kentucky in the fall. Asheville (#11) is a Brad Cox first time starter with Irad Ortiz in the irons. He’s a half brother to the Grade 1 winning mare, Fair Maiden. That one had some up and down form, but she was good when it counted the most. The works are okay, and I prefer to bet Cox’s horses in their second starts. I’d imagine that his price is going to dip below his 5-1 morning line, especially if this duo wins the 5th and 7th races as they will be favored to do. I don’t love the rail in this spot for The Hund (#1), but I do respect the horse. He has two respectable starts at Turfway, nearly missing at this level two back and running a respectable 4th in open company more recently. He’ll definitely need some kind of a trip, but he’s worth thinking about on some of the tickets.

2026 Spring Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners: 24/105 (22.9%), $173.06, $1.65 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.