By Eric Solomon
Doug O’Neill and Reddam Racing LLC are back in the Derby with Pavlovian, after narrowly missing in the Louisiana Derby in his last start. They’ve teamed up to win the Derby twice, and they’re going to send out this longshot to win this trophy for the third time.
Racing Record and Notable Performances
No runner in this race will have more racing experience than Pavlovian. When he enters the starting gate on Derby Day, that will be his 11th time on the track. He broke his maiden in his second career start, going all the way back to June in a state bred maiden special weight race at Santa Anita. He finished a distant second to Desert Gate in the Grade 2 Best Pal. After that, he started five times in Southern California, all coming against state bred competition. He was 0-5 in those races, picking up a few checks along the way. Things changed for this colt when Doug O’Neill took him on the road to New Mexico where he showed up in the Sunland Park Derby. He put pressure on the pacesetter from the jump in that race, which was a complete tactical reversal from his first eight starts. He battled every step of the way and was able to get his head down on the wire in the nick of time, while posting a career top Beyer in that race. O’Neill brought him to New Orleans for his final tune-up for the Derby, which was his move with Hot Rod Charlie a few years ago. For the first time in his career, he was the leader at the first call. He set respectable fractions in that race and was still fighting every step of the way, only to be nailed on the wire by the lightly raced Emerging Market.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: Pavel
- Dam & Damsire: Mandy’s Grace (by Bellamy Road)
- Owner: Reddam Racing LLC
- Trainer: Doug O’Neill
- Jockey: Edwin Maldonado
He’s a modest homebred for Reddam Racing who was bred in California. The last Cal Bred to win the Derby was California Chrome in 2014. Pavel was a Grade 1 winner for O’Neill in Reddam, but he’s yet to have a major success story as a sire. The dam didn’t do much on the track and this her her first horse of consequence that she’s produced.
While this will be the first Kentucky Derby for jockey Edwin Maldonado, both Doug O’Neill and Reddam Racing have had success twice in the Derby, winning in 2012 with I’ll Have Another and then four years later with Nyquist. I’ll Have Another was the winner of the Santa Anita Derby, he was still a 15-1 longshot when winning the Derby. Nyquist was the two year old champion in 2015 and he was the post time favorite in the 2016 Derby. These connections like to take big chances with their runners, and they’re taking a big swing with this colt.
Final Prep Analysis
Final Prep Race: G2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds (March 21st)
Finish Position: 2nd out of 9
Final Time: 1:55
Beyer Speed Figure: 90
He drew the rail in that race and Maldonado put him on the lead. He set respectable fractions while under pressure from longshot Autobahn and co-favorite Chip Honcho every step of the way. He put away both of them at the top of the stretch and battled with Emerging Market throughout the duration of the stretch. He was nailed on the wire with Emerging Market getting his head down first. While the raw time was fast, the Beyer Figure was a little light when compared with some of the other final prep scores.
Strengths and Concerns
Strengths: There’s not a lot of early speed in this race, so he could wind up being the pacesetter in this race, where the pace might not be as hot as it has been in recent years. He has a lot of racing experience and he’s vastly improved in his last two starts. He was nailed at the wire, but he proved that he is not an easy horse to pass when he’s on the lead.
Concerns: The Louisiana Derby was not the strongest 100 point Derby Prep Race, so this will be a much classier field than any group that he’s faced before. While Emerging Market is a nice horse, he is young and unproven. There are going to be several horses that have proven they have a strong turn of foot that will be coming at him in the last quarter mile. While his connections laud his stamina, his class is going to be tested the most.
Expert Opinions and Odds
There aren’t a ton of longer priced options in this year’s Derby that feel like they have a legitimate chance. However, when compared to some of those horses, this one feels like he has a lot of things going for him. I think the pace scenario could be friendly to a horse that can make the lead. He’s been sharp out of the gate in his last two starts and he’s been acting like a horse that is starting to get some things figured out. He has yet to win a graded stakes race though and he’ll be facing the best horses in training in his generation on Derby Day. He’s going to be a longshot, and while prices on longshots in the Derby can be tricky to gauge, I’d be willing to bet a small amount of money on him to win if he’s in the 40-1 or 50-1 range.
Conclusion
He’s definitely going to be a longshot in the Derby and there are definitely some other horses that have a better chance of winning this race. However, there are horses in this field that I can’t find a path to victory for. That is not the case with this guy. On paper, there’s not many horses that seem to want to set the pace in this race. He’s been a different animal since going to the front in the early stages of his recent races. His effort in the Louisiana Derby proved his narrow victory in the Sunland Park Derby in February was not a fluke. While at this point, he’s not in my top 3, he is one of the more interesting longshots in this field.
