Keeneland Full Card Analysis – 4/26/24 – By Eric Solomon

The 16th and final day of the 2024 Keeneland Spring Meet offers a 10 race card with five of those races carded for the turf. The feature is the Grade 3 Bewitch Stakes Presented by Keeneland Sales, which will be run at 1 ½ miles on the turf course. War Like Goddess is looking for her 4th straight win in that race, which might have to be renamed in her honor if she’s able to pull that off. The jockey and trainer standings are tight with Tyler Gaffalione, Irad Ortiz, and Jose Ortiz all still in contention. Irad Ortiz holds a two race lead over Gaffalione and a three race lead over his brother. All three riders have several live mounts throughout the afternoon. Wesley Ward holds a two race lead over Chad Brown for leading trainer of the meet. However, Brown can’t win the title as he has only one starter. Brad Cox is three wins behind Ward, and he can tie if his runners win the 6th, 7th, and 8th races, while Ward is shut out in the five races he has horses in. If he picks up a win in the 1st, 2nd, or 4th, he will be the leading trainer of the Spring Meet. Note the earlier post time today with the first race scheduled to go off at 12:30 (ET).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Closing day starts on the grass with two year old fillies sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. Mark Casse won the first turf race of the meet for juveniles yesterday when Into Diamonds found himself in the Winner’s Circle. Casse sends out Flip Flops (#4) in this race who will be my top pick. She’s the first horse sired by Preakness winner War of Will, to hit the racetrack. That one also won the Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile on this course as a four year old. She’s the cleverly named first foal to race from the mare, Sandal. Her Holy Name (#9) showed some late interest in the slop when finishing 3rd here two weeks ago. Kantharos gets 15% winners in turf sprints and 15% winners with horses racing on the turf for the first time. Saturday Flirt (#7) is the morning line favorite for Ward. Mendelssohn doesn’t have great numbers with firsters sprinting on the turf and the dam was unremarkable in her career. The works are decent and Ward’s proclivity with two year olds is hard to ignore, especially when there’s not a lot of better options on paper. 

Race 2:

The early daily double is for the babies as more two year olds sprint in this 4 ½ maiden special weight contest on the Headley Course. While it’s not creative, I don’t see any of these horses posing a significant threat to either of the Ward runners. Burning Pine (#7) is a filly that is bred to go longer, and there’s a good chance that her best races are going to be on the turf. Her half brother, Neat, has two stakes wins already, most recently winning the Grade 3 Transylvania on this course earlier in the meet. The dam has foaled one debut winner when Louder Than Bombs won at two turns on the turf at Gulfstream. She has a nice foundation of workouts, and nothing she’s done in the AM indicates she’s not going to fire on the dirt here. The alternative would be Spun Lovin (#4), who didn’t draw into a race earlier in the week.The pedigree isn’t as strong with him as it is with his stablemate. However, Ward trains his horses for speed and I expect him to come out running. If Ward doesn’t clinch the trainer title in the opener, this race feels like the spot where it will happen. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will go one mile on the turf in this N1X allowance race. New Rome (#3), who is a perfect 5-5 on the turf, is the morning line favorite for Jena Antonucci and Tyler Gaffalione. Front end speed is her game and she’s been very good in her last two route races at Gulfstream since joining Antonucci’s barn. There’s not a lot of speed signed on and unless James Graham decides to force the issue with the stretch out sprinter, Echo Foxtrot (#10), she should be controlling the tempo. Her pedigree is more modest than many in this spot, but she’s been a different filly on the turf. She handled her business when running with a tag in turf sprints at Laurel and she’s been better at two turns of late. I think they’re going to have a hard time catching her in this spot. I do think Graham is going to end up rating with Echo Foxtrot, so I think she’ll be in a cozy spot while trying two turns for the first time. She’s making her third start off a lengthy layoff for Conor Murphy. His horses have been live at this meet and this mare might be better at longer distances. I prefer her underneath, but she might be worth a few bucks to win if her odds float over the 20-1 morning lion threshold. 

Race 4:

There’s a lot of early speed signed on for this maiden special weight for fillies and mares at six furlongs. I think Satin Blue (#10) is an interesting runner in her first start off the layoff and her first try on dirt for Joe Sharp. She’s sired by The Factor, and even though his best work came on the dirt, his offspring often run well in turf sprints. As a result, it wasn’t surprising to see her debut at Kentucky Downs and then try the grass here last year in her second career start. She wasn’t great in either race, but she did show improvement in her second start. Her dam foaled two other runners, both of which won in dirt sprints. One of them broke their maiden on debut here as a two year old and the other is a three time winner that won in his second career start, which was also his first on the dirt. She went to the sidelines and now resurfaces in this dirt sprint after a decent series of drills both here and at the training track at Churchill. She adds Lasix and should be able to sit a cozy stalking trip from her outside draw. Tirupati (#7) debuts this afternoon for Jonathon Thomas after showing some snappy works on the local oval. She’s the first foal to race from a dam that was winless, but competitive in four Southern California starts. Mitole gets 13% debut winners in dirt sprints. A lot of the speed should be coming from both Dee Minus (#4) and Barbara T (#5). Dee Minus has three career starts and she coughed up the lead late in her last two after doing most of the heavy lifting. All three starts came over the winter at Turfway, so this will be her first try in the afternoon on conventional dirt. She did come from off the pace and she just missed in her debut, so Machado might be comfortable conceding the early lead to Barbara T, who ships in from Southern California for Michael McCarthy. She was very good on debut last year, just missing on the dirt in her first career start at Del Mar at the end of July. She’s been away since and returns after a cross-country ship. She might prove to be faster than these, so I’m going to cover with her, but I do think asking her to win in this spot is asking a lot. 

Race 5:

The Pick-6, which will have a mandatory payout, is bookended by two divisions of a 1 3/16 maiden special weight on the turf for three years. These races also bookend the final All-Turf Pick-3 of the meet. This is a wide open event with several that could be labeled as contenders. I landed on Iris’s Dream (#2) for Cheryl Winebaugh here. Others have flashier pedigrees and have beaten better horses, however, I really liked his win in his lone turf start two back. He faced maiden/optional claimers in a race where he was not eligible to be claimed (as a Florida bred), and he was absolutely loaded. He was wide around the first turn, but within range of the pacesetters. He advanced at will, but had to slightly tap on the brakes when a seam closed up. He circled wide and powerfully drew away from his competition as if they were standing still. That effort was good enough for him to be considered for the Florida Derby in his last start. He was off the board behind Fierceness that day, but I think he’s going to be better on turf than on dirt. He’s drawn closer to the inside, meaning he should be able cover less ground than he did at Gulfstream two back. While the water gets deeper, I think he’ll be able to swim just fine. Thomas Aquinas (#8) makes his second start off the layoff for Ian Wilkes. He broke his maiden on this course last fall in his second career try on the turf. He was almost four lengths better than Uncle Truly (#3), who he’ll face again today, when they met at Kentucky Downs three starts ago. He made his seasonal debut in a race at this level at Turfway where he finished 4th against an above average field at this level. He lives to be forward as well, which continues to play well on this course. Uncle Truly wintered in California with his half brother, Truly Quality, who was caught in the final stages of a 12 furlong race here yesterday. Like his brother, he ran well in two starts at this condition at Santa Anita, but he failed to secure a victory. While Thomas only has one winner at the meet, his horses have been running well, and this one, whose grand dam was the champion mare, Forever Together, should continue to improve this season. On deeper tickets, I’ll include Swiss Slang (#1) who is trying the turf for the first time since his debut today. He didn’t run a step in that race, but since then, he’s ripped off three straight wins on the Tapeta at Gulfstream. He’s taking a step up in class, but he could be dangerous if he takes to this course.

Race 6:

A field of eight will start the Late Pick-5 in a N1X allowance sprint at six furlongs. Mullikin (#2) is the best bet for me on closing day. He was very good in defeat both at Oaklawn and on this oval last year, putting up huge numbers despite being second best. He was dominant as a heavy favorite in his third career start at Churchill back in May, coasting home over 10 lengths in front of his competition. He moved to stakes company, running in the seven furlong Maxfield Stakes on a sloppy course at Ellis  when facing winners for the first time. He was second that day, three lengths behind Ryvit, who has turned into a very nice sprinter. Things didn’t go his way in his most recent start where he missed the start. He wants to be forward, so Corrales, he was in chase mode all the way. He drew even with the eventual winner, but couldn’t sustain his bid, fading late to finish 4th. He tried to come back two months later, but was a vet scratch. He’s been sidelined since, but he’s been working well for Brisset. This is not an easy field, but I think he’s a stakes quality horse. I think he’s quicker than One Giant Leap (#1) who is moving up in class for his four year old debut. I’m expecting Prat to get him home on what could be the start of a very nice four year old campaign for this son of Violence. If someone is going to run him down late, perhaps Moreau (#7) will be that horse. He closed well to be second in a 6 ½ furlong sprint in his debut. He broke his maiden going a one turn mile in his next start. His last four races have come at two turns. He’s been away since the end of November and returns for Andrew McKeever, who has good numbers off the layoff. He might be rolling late. 

Race 7:

The last Pick-4 begins with a maiden special weight featuring a dozen three year olds sprinting six furlongs. This is another wide open race where I’m not too keen on the shorter priced runners. While Steve Asmussen’s runners have struggled at this meet, I think both of his mounts in this race are live at long odds. I’m going to make Sweet as Sin (#11) the top pick. He was a dull 8th in his debut at Churchill when going seven furlongs last September. That was a decent race as his stablemate, Otto the Conqueror, went on to win a stakes race, and the runner up just came back to break his maiden here, making his first start off the layoff. This race is admittedly shorter than he probably wants to go, however, there is plenty of talent in his bloodlines. His full sister, Liora, was a graded stakes winner and was second to Serengeti Empress in the Kentucky Oaks. His half sister, Family Tree, was a multiple graded stakes winner and she finished third to Songbird in the 2016 Alabama Stakes. Win or lose, I think he’ll be entered in a route race on the dirt next time, but I think there’s some ability there and he could upset this field. His stablemate, Trouble’s Rising (#1) draws the rail for his first start on dirt since his debut. He’s been competitive while not showing a ton of growth while racing on the Tapeta at Turfway. He’s sired by World of Trouble out of a Henny Hughes mare, so this distance should be right up his alley, assuming he takes to the dirt. Schwarzmeier (#4) would be the backup top pick, if Sweet as Sin were to be scratched. He had a pair of respectable races as a two year old on the dirt in California and has been sidelined since. He was slow from the gate in both starts, and that’s something that he’s going to need to fix, especially on this course. He has been working well and both of Sadler’s runners that have started here at this meet have been live. I’ll cover with Stinger Bee (#6) in this spot. If he runs back to his last race at the Fair Grounds, he might be too quick for this group. However, that race kind of came out of nowhere, so there’s no guarantee that he’ll run back to that race. He’s making his 5th career start today and this will be the first time we’ll see his third race in a given form cycle, so I’m not totally sold that he’s going to bounce in this spot. He’s more of a backup for me. 

Race 8, The Grade 3 Bewitch Stakes, Presented By Keeneland Sales:

This race has been the annual starting point of the season for the talented seven year old mare, War Like Goddess (#6). She has seven wins in 10 starts at this distance, losing twice in the Breeders’ Cup Turf against the boys and losing by a neck to McCulick in the Glen Falls at Saratoga last summer. She loves this course as this was the site of her third place finish in the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Turf. She is looking for her 4th straight win in this race. She wasn’t challenged in her last two starts in this race and I don’t see anyone up to the task of beating her, assuming she still wants to do her thing on the race course. Atomic Blonde (#4) will be my backup, in hopes that some time off will have done her well. She ran well in the Orchid at this distance last year when she was fresh. But she never really ran back to that effort. She’s better at longer distances and she’ll get the services of Joel Rosario, who used to ride War Like Goddess, but lost that mount to Junior Alvarado.

Race 9:

Fillies and mares will sprint seven furlongs and 184 feet on the Beard Course in this optional $100K claiming/N3X allowance race. There’s a lot going on with this full field. Pacesetters appear to be Princess Adaleigh (#1), Happy Soul (#7), and Mucho Macho Gal (#11). Princess Adaleigh is the one that interests me the most from this group. I think she has the speed to clear from the rail. She was excellent in the Rancho Bernardo when she overcame a stumble to still make the lead, before fading late. Toss her last race on synthetic, and I think she has a shot here. However, the added distance makes me nervous. She’s a B line play for me, but if one or both of the other speed horses defect from this race, I’d definitely upgrade her. The top pick for me is Unifying (#8) for Riley Mott. She was not her best self while buried on the rail in the Hurricane Bertie last out. She’s a stakes winner at seven furlongs, winning the Leslie’s Lady Stakes. She was off for six months after that race and has raced three times since. She was a little short in the Rampart at one mile and she just missed when cutting back to six furlongs in the Minaret at Tampa Bay. Her two races at Gulfstream weren’t very good, so not liking that surface could be the bigger issue with those two races. I think she’ll sit a favorable trip at a distance that suits her well. Royal Take Charge (#12) makes her five year old debut in this race for Al Stall. She probably wants to go a little longer than this. However, there could be enough speed from horses that don’t really want this distance to set her up. She ran a solid race here at nine furlongs last season and she cleared the N2X convincingly in her next start. She struggled in her last two, but I still think she has some upside here. 

Race 10: 

The meet will end with the second division of the N1X allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 3/16 miles on the lawn. The pedigree play is the Chad Brown filly, Catch a Wave (#8). She’s a half to Integration, who is one of the most talented young turf runners in the country. That one was third behind a pair of Charles Appleby imports in the Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile two weeks ago. The dam was a graded stakes winner, winning the Jessamine on this course and coming within a neck of winning the Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup the following year. This filly was a winner on debut for Brown at Tampa. Brown’s runners at Gulfstream weren’t great, and he likes to use the course there, despite the lower purses. This is not a particularly deep race, at least on paper right now. Perhaps that’s a function of this race being split into two heats. Izzy d’Oro (#4) looks like a candidate to be setting the tempo in this race. She wasn’t great last year, but she’s improved in the last few months. She was excellent when breaking her maiden on the Tapeta in her last start. The distance is a bit of a question mark, but you could say that about all of these fillies. On deeper tickets, Magic Heart (#9) is the only two time winner in the field. She broke her maiden for a tag and then came right back to win impressively with starter allowance company on the grass in her next start. Her last race was taken off the turf at Tampa, so her 4th place finish is excusable. This is a decent class bump, but I think she’s not without a shot here. 

Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners: 30/125 (24.0%), $213.89, $1.71 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.