The final Grade 1 race of the meet is the Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup Presented by Dixiana. This race always draws a deep and competitive field and this year’s edition is no different. There could be some rain in the area from the remnants of Hurricane Isaias at some point in the afternoon. As of now,it looks like it will be more of a hindrance for the Sunday card, but it’s still worth keeping an eye on. First post today is set for 1:00 (ET).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 6 | 6,4 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 11,10 | 12 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 8 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 5 | 4 | 4,12,13 | 8 | DBL, PK3, PK6,
$3 All-Turf PK3 (R5, R7, R9) |
|
| 6 | 1 | 1,5 | DBL, PK3, PK5, | ||
| 7 | 9 | 9,6,3 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 8 | 8 | 8,4 | 1 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 9 | 8 | 8,9,3 | 2 | DBL | |
| 10 | 12 | 12 | 3 |
Race 1:
We’ll start the afternoon with a $20K N2L claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. Nyktos (#6) is an interesting option at a decent number in this race. She broke her maiden in a one mile race on the dirt at Belterra in her second career start, which was also her only career start on dirt. She shipped to Kentucky Downs where she was a huge longshot in a N1X allowance race going 1 5/16 miles. She trailed throughout in that race which was way over her head. She did cost $250K, so I respect the big swing. However, Jack Sisterson brings her way back down to Earth in this one. She’ll need to move forward from her winning race, but I also feel that’s a possible task with this field. Lost Chord (#4)is the heavy favorite on the morning line. She scored in a $50K maiden claimer when making her 7th career start back in June at Churchill. She’s been 0-3 since though. I don’t think she wants to sprint on the turf, so I can look past her most recent try. She’s taking a deep dive in class here where she’ll likely be a sub-even money choice. I don’t love the price, but she’s hard to leave off any multi-race tickets.
Race 2:
Two year old fillies will go about seven furlongs over the Beard Course in the $30K maiden claiming race that starts the Early Pick-4. The runners that show up in the form as cross-entered on 10/8 were all stuck on the AE list that day and they’re all in the body of this field. I’m going to lean on the trio in the outside stalls in this one, making Kefka (#11) the top pick. While I’m a little concerned about stretching out after a five furlong maiden race with $40K maiden claimers at Horseshoe Indy, she was close to the winner that day, which is more than most can say for this group. She had a couple of nice works after her debut over at Turfway. Luan Machado and Ethan West are looking to get on the board for the first time at this Fall Meet. Dolly P (#10) goes turf to dirt after a debut at two turns in a maiden special weight race also at Horseshoe Indy. Brendan Walsh running this horse at this level after she was purchased for $210K isn’t a ringing endorsement, however, there are several horses that are racing for a tag much lower than their purchase price in this spot, so something is going to have to give. On deeper tickets, I’ll throw Baby Chantal (#12) on some tickets. She debuted in a maiden auction race at Churchill last month where she finished 6th, beaten 9 lengths. She likely doesn’t fit at that level here at Keeneland, so I get the drop in class. Her trainer, Carlos Munoz, has a win and a second from two starters at this stage of the meet.
Race 3:
The first turf race of the day is a N2L allowance contest for two year olds going 1 1/16 miles. The debut from Merlin Monroan (#6) was very sharp at Kentucky Downs. He was lingering at the back of the pack but Flavien Prat knew he had some horse as he guided him to the outside on the bend, He came storming down the outside part of the track and got up in time to win by a full length. I think the two turn game will suit him better as he’s a half to one of my favorite New York breds, Somelikeithotbrown. He was really good in turf routes, banking over $1.7 million in his career. The dam also produced another stakes winner on turf, Jolting Joe. There is plenty to like here. It is worth noting the Prat rode him on debut but he lands on Cuplable (#8) in this race. He was a debut winner at two turns on the turf for Pletcher at Saratoga. He tried the Juvenile Stakes at Kentucky Downs where he was soundly defeated. He was up close to a strong pace on that course and he came up empty in the stretch there. I expect a better effort on a more traditional course.
Race 4:
Morunning (#2) feels like the one to beat in this $62,500 claiming race, Christopher Davis brought him to Del Mar for a pair of races this summer and it didn’t go particularly well. He ran twice in N2X company and was off the board both times. His last race on the turf certainly wasn’t his finest hour, but that effort could be forgiven. He drops into open claiming company and returns to a course where he was a dominant winner this spring. The alternative for me will be Money Supply (#8) in the outside stall. He hasn’t been as sharp this year since, but this will be his first true, two-turn race in over a year. His last win came on this course and a win in this race would put him over the million dollar mark for his career.
Race 5:
This is the first division of a maiden special weight contest for two year old fillies going one mile on the turf course. The second division will be the 7th race today. Free Verse (#4) makes a lot of sense here, getting on the turf for the first time. She debuted on the dirt in a sprint race, but when looking at the pedigree, that race felt like a perfect warm up for a race like this. The dam was a Grade 1 winner on this course and she’s produced multiple stakes winners on the grass. Brad Cox has gotten off to a bit of a slow start at this meet, but I think this filly is very live in this race. Meleys (#12) stretches out to two turns after a strong effort in a 6 ½ furlong sprint at Kentucky Downs in his last start. The outside draw is not ideal, but Brian Hernandez knows his way around this course. She makes sense as a horse on the upswing in this race. Follow Your Heart (#13) is on the outside looking in, but she’d be the morning line favorite if she is able to draw into this race. She faced Brickyard Belle in her debut and that one just came back to win the Grade 3 Matron Stakes at Belmont last weekend. She’s stretching out to two turns after a strong sprint effort on debut,but she’s another one whose pedigree suggests that should not be a problem. On deeper tickets, I’ll use Sweet Buttercup (#8). She should be a fair price in this race after an eventful debut at Kentucky Downs when going 6 ½ furlongs last month. She was three around the first half of the deep bend there. She was guided over near the rail for the second part of the turn, but she had a bit of a misstep coming out of the turn. She finished with interest before her lane was closed and then drifted back to 8th in the final 100 yards or so. I like her at the mile as a daughter of War of Will, who won the Makers Mark Mile on this course. She is another one that has upside in what is quite a nice maiden event.
Race 6:
The Late Pick-5 begins with an optional $125K claiming/N2X allowance race for three year old fillies going six furlongs. Braverthanubelieve (#1) is a New York bred that is moving to open company for the first time. She comes into this race undefeated, scoring in the a New York Stallion Series race and a state bred N2X race. John Velazquez gets the return call on this filly who is making her second start off the layoff while also adding Lasix for the first time. Sneaky Good (#5) was a debut winner here last fall for Cox. Since then, she has run in seven consecutive stakes races. She won the Sandpiper Stakes at Tampa in her second start, but she’s been winless since. She has in the money finishes in the G3 Forward Gal, G3 Honeybee, and G2 Beaumont Stakes on this oval. Her races here are two of her better efforts and the class relief should be welcome as Cox tries to figure out what’s next for her. These two seem like safe bets in this one.
Race 7:
The second division of the maiden special weight race for two year olds going one mile starts the Late Pick-4. Sugar Hallow (#9) is an interesting player in this race. She debuted at Horseshoe Indy, which isn’t always the best sign for a horse that cost $250K. However, she ran well, finishing second to Serena’s Ghost that day. That filly came back to win the Jessamine here last week. While that wasn’t the fastest edition of that race, it shows that Sugar Hallow faced a tough customer in her debut. Axel Concepcion is another rider that is making the most of a limited number of opportunities at this meet and he’ll take the assignment for the first time today. While I wonder a bit about the distance, I think Tanhauser (#6) is a well meant debuting filly for Cherie Devaux. She’s a half to Determined Kingdom, who is a stakes winning turf sprinter. As a sire, Corniche hasn’t had a debuting winner on turf at two turns, but he is 1-12 with his debuting runners on turf in general. That colt came back to win the Laurel Futurity at 1 1/16 miles on the turf in his latest start. Jose Ortiz will get the assignment. Just Peachy (#3) struggled in a sprint at Kentucky Downs in her last start, but she was sharp two back when she finished a close second at Saratoga when going two turns for the first time in her career. She’s another one with a live look in a strong race.
Race 8:
The $3 Late Pick-3 begins with a very contentious optional $80K claiming/N2X allowance race going 7 furlongs and 184 feet over the Beard Course. I landed on Steeze (#8) as the top pick in this one. He found a nice rhythm over the winter at Gulfstream, putting up a big figure in a one turn mile race there in January and then clearing the first level allowance condition in February. He struggled at Colonial in their three day Virginia Derby meet in March. However, the track is very funny at that time of year, and I usually am very forgiving of dull efforts from horses during that time. He went to the sidelines after that race and came back at this level in his last try at Ellis. It took him a while to find his best stride in that 6 ½ furlong race, but he was moving well. That feels like a race that will be helpful in improving his fitness level for this race. Look for him to be coming on late in this race where the distance might be right up his alley. Bold Strength (#4) is the morning line favorite and the one to beat here. He was sharp in his two races at seven furlongs this summer at the Spa, and he did have notable trouble in his last start when going the one turn mile at Churchill. Look for him to be on the front end in this race, which seemed to be a much better place to be on Thursday than it was last week. On deeper tickets, I’ll also include Thailand (#1) for Wesley Ward. He’s making his first start since a decisive first level allowance score here in April when going 1 1/16 miles. That was his first try on the dirt and he aced that test with flying colors. This is a tough spot for him to make his return to the races after six months on the bench. I don’t love the 4-1 number, but I’d be more willing to get involved if he was closer to 8-1.
Race 9, The Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Presented by Dixiana:
This Grade 1 race for three year old fillies is wide open and highly competitive. The top three finishers from the Del Mar Oaks are back to face off against the winner of the King’s Plate against the boys at Woodbine. Tam Tam (#3) shipped to Oceanside from Kentucky and Kensington Lane (#9) came from Ireland and then to New York before settling down in Southern California. They ran first and third, respectively in the Del Mar Oaks, but I’m interested in seeing what the runner-up can do for an encore. Lookin at Diamond (#8) is based in California, and she’s put forth strong efforts in each of her four career starts, boasting improvement each time. She finished second at 40-1 in that race, passing the Belmont Oaks winner, Kensington Lane late. The longer stretch here at Keeneland should be to her liking, assuming that she’ll take to the turf here at Keeneland. While I don’t think there will be a breakneck pace in this race, I think there’s enough early interest to keep the tempo honest. This filly will be a much longer price and I think she can be close once again. Kensington Lane should be a little closer to the front, while not being on the lead like she was in the Del Mar Oaks. I also think the cut of the grass here at Keeneland will be a little kinder to her than the short and firm course at Del Mar. She makes sense as an improvement candidate after a strong score in the Belmont Oaks in her stateside debut two back. Tam Tam has done little wrong since going to the turf this year. She scored in the Tepin after graded stakes placings in the Edgewood and the Regret. However, the Del Mar Oaks is where everything came together for her. After pairing her last two Beyers, she could be eligible to move up here. There’s going to be a lot of focus on Luster (#2) in this race after beating the boys in the Kings Plate in her latest start. Josie Carroll opted to bypass the Prince of Wales and the Breeders’ Stakes up North in favor of this Grade 1 test. She broke her maiden by five lengths on this course in the spring and is undefeated in two turn races on grass or Tapeta. If she runs back to her last few races on the synthetic, she’s going to be awfully tough in this spot. However, this is a big if and at 5-2 or lower with this loaded field, I’ll only want her as a backup.
Race 10:
My strongest opinion of the day comes in the nightcap, which is a highly competitive maiden special weight race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. Fletch’s Rockette (#12) is the play for me in this spot. She’s getting back on the dirt after dabbling in a turf sprint in her latest try at Saratoga. She ran against a very nice filly that was entered here yesterday, Cold Spell, two starts ago. This filly was second best that afternoon, but she turned in a sharp effort. Her two dirt sprint races are by far her two best efforts and that’s what she gets to this afternoon. I think she can break through this afternoon. I’ll use another turf to dirt runner as the backup in this spot. Only Me (#3) just missed in a slower maiden allowance race at Kentucky Downs on the grass in her last start. Prior to that, she faced a strong group in the slop here where she was a respectable 4th. That was a live maiden race here this spring that she came out of and I’m interested to see what she can do on a fast track.
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
