Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Saturday, 10/25/25 – By Eric Solomon

The 17th and final day of the Fall Meet at Keeneland gives us a card with lots of full fields and three nice stakes races. Two year olds will go six furlongs on the Bowman Mill Stakes which is the 6th race today. The 8th race is the Grade 3 Bryan Station Stakes for three year olds going one mile over the turf course. The 9th race is the Grade 3 Hagyard Fayette Stakes for three year olds and up going 1 ⅛ miles on the main track. First post for the closing day card is set  for 1:00 (ET). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Closing day begins with a full gate of 12 fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles over the main track in a $20K starter allowance contest. Joe Sharp sends out a pair of short priced runners in this race, but I think Mercy Warren (#6), who just missed at this level two weeks ago in a sprint at this level, is the one to beat today. She has handled two turns with ease in the past and she’s a proven winner, finding the Winner’s Circle in 8 of 28 career starts. She figures to be forwardly placed, which hasn’t been a bad thing on this track this week. Irad Ortiz is off as he;s riding Our Liberty Belle (#12), who is also trained by Sharp. Sharp is the owner of Mercy Warren, so perhaps he’s appeasing his clients by having Irad on his other mount. Tyler Gaffalione is no slouch, as he gets the assignment aboard my top pick. While I think she might need to be a little faster, I like the current form from Backstretch Rose (#1), who ships here from Laurel for Lacey Gaudet. She claimed this Army Mule filly at Saratoga on a day where she was a winner in a $17,500 N3L claiming race at nine furlongs there. She followed up that effort with a confident score in a N1X allowance race going one mile at Laurel. She went off form a bit over the winter, so perhaps the frigid temperatures and the track conditions in New York contributed to those weaker efforts. She has finished in the money in 13 of her 17 career starts on the dirt, with two of the off the board efforts coming in February and March at the Big A. I’ll also back up with the favorite, Colonial Rose (#10). She’s at her best on a wet track and the course is likely going to be fast today. She’s drawn wide, which is also not ideal for this race. Since claiming her at Keeneland in the spring, Norm Casse has kept her in good form and has continued to have her compete in protected races such as this. She was a dominating winner at this condition in the slop three starts back at Churchill and she was an easy winner on a fast track with a softer $30K starter allowance field. While that looks like a tougher race on paper, that’s one of those starter allowance races where horses must also be eligible for the N1X allowance condition in order to compete in that spot. She’s better than many of these, so it makes sense to use her as a backup, but I think she’s vulnerable, especially at short odds.

Race 2:

The first of four races carded for the turf today is a maiden special weight for two year olds going 1 ⅛ miles. This race oversubscribed, so it has been split into two divisions, with the second heat going off at the nightcap today. Brendan Walsh has a pair of runners with similar running lines in this race. Irish Law (#8) and Maginnesontap (#10) both debuted at Ellis Park in July, with Maginnesontap finishing about two lengths better than his stablemate. They ran in separate one mile races at Kentucky Downs where both finished second. Honey Dutch was the winner of the Maginnesontap race, and that one ran an ambitious race where he was in another league with those restricted maiden special weight races. However, I think that field was likely deeper than that field that Irish Law competed in. While both horses look nice, and while I think both are going to appreciate the added distance, I’m not sure how much room for growth there is with either of these colts at this time. I’m going to use both, but I think the one with the highest ceiling in this race is the Kitten’s Joy first time starter Remember Mamba (#3), who makes his debut today for Cherie DeVaux. While she isn’t known for striking with her first time starters, this colt has been working well for his debut. The dam was a two-turn winner on the turf and there’s obviously distance influence from her sire, Kitten’s Joy. He’s not covering the same quality mares that he was covering 10-15 years ago, so his numbers with first time starters have dipped, but he’s still winning with 10% of his runners debuting in turf routes over the last five years.

Race 3:

A half dozen fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles on the main track in this optional $100K claiming/N3X allowance race. Steve Asmussen moved into the lead on Thursday atop the trainer standings and he’ll send out the even money favorite, Our Pretty Woman (#6) in this race. She was 4th in her last start in the Grade 2 Locust Grove Stakes at Churchill. Asmussen opts to drop in her class for this race, possibly in part because she can run with Lasix. While she has a stakes win in her past without Lasix, her strongest efforts in her career came when she was able to have it. Perhaps that will be an influence on where she’ll be racing this winter as Louisiana allows horses to be given race day Lasix in their stakes races for older horses. She has a massive class edge over her five rivals in this race. I’m not going to try to beat her. The backup for me is going to be Chilled (#3). She finished off the board in the Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster earlier in the meet. She’s a frequent visitor to Keeneland, making six starts here in her 17 races career. While she’s never found the Winner’s Circle, she often runs strong races, finishing in the money in four of those six races. 

Race 4:

Two year old fillies will sprint six furlongs in this $150K maiden claiming contest. Wesley Ward has two starters in this race and while I think both are live, I’m more interested in Muffin Music (#12), who is trying the dirt for the first time. While his two turf races weren’t really up to Ward’s standards, they were both better races than they look on paper. She was slow to break at Monmouth and then was forced to steady a few strides later. She came with a strong middle move, but flattened out to finish 4th. She was beaten by a next out stakes winner in that race, so she was up against a respectable field. She came with a wide bid at Kentucky Downs in her last start and had to settle for 4th. The winner of that race came back to be a close third in a stakes race in New York and the third place finisher broke her maiden there in her next start. The pedigree tells me this one should be better on the dirt. Leedu (#7) debuts for Joe Sharp in this race. She’s an Independence Hall first time starter out of a Roman Ruler mare. The firsters from this sire have struggled to win in dirt sprints on debut, going 1-31 so far. However, 35% of those runners are finishing in the money, so many of them are running credible races.  Irad Ortiz has been red hot, winning four times on Wednesday and Thursday this week. He’ll get the call for a barn that does better with firsters when they debut for a tag. Gracie’s Delight (#5)  comes back to the dirt after struggling on the turf at Saratoga in her last start. She was 4th in a fast two year old race here in the spring and then she ran a better race at Saratoga in June. She is likely going to be making a move for the early lead, which hasn’t been the worst place to be this week. 

Race 5:

The Pick-6, which must be paid out today, and the All-Turf Pick-3 wager both begin with this one mile N1X allowance race for three year olds and up. It’s very tough for me to find a horse that I can pick with confidence to defeat the favorite, Mount Horeb (#9) in this spot. Brendan Walsh brings him back after a strong third place finish in a loaded allowance on the Fountain of Youth undercard at Gulfstream. That course is not always easy to make up ground on, so the fact that he came running with such strong bids bodes well for his chances on a course like this with a longer stretch. He’s been battle tested against some good older horses, while his primary contenders are three year olds coming off maiden scores. He won’t offer much value, but I think this is his race to lose. The backup for me in this race is High Ceiling (#6). He made his first two career starts on the turf here and at Churchill and neither race was particularly strong. He came back to run two winning races on the dirt in New Orleans, winning his first start against state bred winners by over 12 lengths. He comes back to the turf for his first start since that victorious effort, and looking at his pedigree, I would expect him to be better on the lawn. He’s figured some things out and should be in the mix, at least for the lower rungs of the vertical exotics, at a fair number.

Race 6, The $250K Bowman Mill Stakes:

The first of three stakes races on the card is the $250K sprint for two year olds going six furlongs. It is worth noting that since entering in this race, Outfielder (#3) did qualify for the body of the field in both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Marcus Hersh of the DRF has reported that the intent is to scratch him out of this race and participate in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf on Friday at Del Mar.  He would have been the top pick if he were running here, but I’m approaching this race as if he won’t be running.  I’m a little chilly with Spun D M C (#5), who is the morning line favorite, but I’m thinking might not be the post time favorite. He won a nice race at Churchill that came back with a big Beyer Figure. However, a lot of the horses that finished near him came back to run dull races when they made their next starts. Assuming Outfielder stays in the barn today, the top pick becomes his stablemate, Heartily (#1). He was a debut winner here on Opening Weekend. There was another maiden race on that card that was a lot quicker, but he was much the best in his heat, winning by over six lengths. Everyone in this race wants to be forward, so his rail position might be the edge. I really liked Galivant (#6) in the other division of that maiden special weight race and he ran a heck of a race to be third, putting a huge speed figure in the process. I do think it’s worth noting that horses that were on the front end on Opening Weekend tended to struggle, as it appeared that some of the outer lanes were better places to be racing. Machado put him on the lead after breaking well and he was all out to hold on before finally giving way. I’d like him better in this race if the pace scenario was a little different, but regardless of his maiden status, I think he needs to be respected. 

Race 7:

Three year old fillies will go nine furlongs on the dirt in this optional claiming/N2X allowance test. Quickick (#1), Disco Rules (#4), and Paris Lily (#6) all should take some money at the windows in this race and while these are three very nice fillies, they have yet to show any significant growth this season. They keep running the same speed figures over and over again. Perhaps getting Lasix, as Quickick will get for the first time and the other two will get once again, will help their respective causes. However, I’m looking for horses with more upside in this race, which led me to Sweet Seraphine (#3) and Yes It Tiz (#8). While I liked the two one mile efforts from Sweet Seraphine, both of those races came at one turn. When she tried two turns on the dirt last out at Parx, she wasn’t very good. I’ll agree she didn’t have the best of trips, but Javier Castellano was riding her hard pretty much at the ⅝ pole, and all the way home. SHe was one the wrong lead in the stretch and just didn’t look like a filly that was crying out for 1 ⅛ miles just yet anyway. Yes It Tiz was cross-entered in the Grade 2 Bank of America Valley View Stakes on the turf yesterday, but she was unable to get in off the AE list. While this race might have been her Plan B, I think she has a great chance to get her picture taken here. She was a winner in an off the turf N1X allowance race last month at Churchill. Despite coming off the grass, the horses that remained in that spot were solid runners. She is absolutely getting a class test today, but I think she’s a great fit with this field. Brad Cox has had a strong week already and I think he gets another win with this Tiz the Law filly. The backup for me is Paris Lily and the angle is that she could easily be the lone speed in this race. She led most of the way in the slop in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes three starts back. She was nailed late that day. She never made the lead in the Delaware Oaks and never seemed to get comfortable in that race, where she finished off the board. Paco Lopez put her on the front in the Monmouth Oaks when making her last start, but she wasn’t able to hold on there either. Brendan Walsh gave her some time off and he brings her back to the scene of her last win. Irad Ortiz takes the call for the first time. 

Race 8, The Grade 3 Bryan Station Stakes:

This stakes race for three year olds going one mile over the turf course is absolutely wide open. I landed on Troubleshooting (#4) stretching out to two turns for the first time after winning a Grade 1 turf sprint race at Kentucky Downs. While the Franklin Sampson is listed as a Grade 1 race and the connections will be able to stamp that accomplishment on him if they’re building a case to have him go to stud following his racing career, that race was not a Grade 1 caliber field. It was a very nice and competitive race and the fact that he won that contest will likely have a negative correlation on the price I’d like to get on him in this race, I still will side with him on top. He’s been very productive in one turn races, especially in his last three starts. He’s bred to be able to handle longer distances, so the transition from 6 ½ furlongs at Kentucky Downs to the one mile distance of this race feels reasonable. He’s likely going to be forwardly placed, but he proved last time out that he doesn’t need to be on the lead to score. This feels like the right kind of spot to feel him out at the distance. Tenacious Leader (#8) has five career starts, two of which came on the grass. He just missed in the With Anticipation Stakes last summer, losing by a neck to Zulu Kingdom. He was a dull 6th behind East Avenue in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity on the dirt here last October. Pletcher had him go to the sidelines and he didn’t return until 364 days later in an allowance race on the same program here at Keeneland. He aced that test on the turf in a spot where I thought it was fair to question whether or not he would be a little rusty for that spot. John Velazquez has ridden this course very well during this meet and he’ll get the return call today. Final Gambit (#5) is cutting back to the mile after several races in a row at longer distances. He does not have a lot of early speed, so traffic could be a major concern for him in this race. However, there is a chance that the pace could get fairly spicy on the front end, which could easily keep him in contention.  Those three would be the A line plays for me, and I’d also try to backup with Giocoso (#9) and Salamis (#12). Giocoso has danced a lot of dances, making his 12th career start in this race today. He looks like a horse that has found a bit of a niche at this distance, running strong efforts in back to back miles at Colonial and Kentucky Downs. He wasn’t great when he was favored in the Bourbon Stakes here last fall, but he also didn’t get the best of trips with that full field. He feels like a horse that is trending upward, but others might still be a tick faster. Salamis is going to have to overcome post 12 to win this race. Chad Brown got off the duck here at this meet on Thursday, scoring with a winner in a $50K maiden claiming race. This was the first time in several years that he didn’t win the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes or any stakes at this meet for that matter. This well-bred son of Speightstown has two very good efforts since finishing third here in the spring. He was good enough to win the Gio Ponti Stakes in New York a few weeks ago.

Race 9, The Grade 3 Hagyard Fayette Stakes:

This 1 ⅛ miles stakes race came up very strong with some nice three year olds taking on some older foes. I think Gosger (#10), who won the Lexington Stakes here in the spring, has a big chance to win this race. He had a miserable trip in the PA Derby, some of which was his own doing. He stumbled out of the gate and was swung five wide going into the first turn. It was clear it wasn’t going to be his day that day. He proved his Preakness effort was no fluke when he came back with a strong effort to be a close second to Journalism once again in the Grade 1 Haskell in July. I think this is one of the better overall crop of three year olds in a while now, and behind Sovereignty and Journalism, he could be making a case for the leader of that next tier. Bracket Buster (#3) did a lot of that heavy lifting in the Haskell and he paid the price, finishing about 8 lengths behind Gosger. However, after that race, he came back with big efforts to be second to Sovereignty in his monstrous Travers win. He then got his graded stakes win at Remington in the Oklahoma Derby. He has a better post and he’s notched a pair of triple digit Beyer Figures in his last two starts, but it still feels funny having him be a shorter price than Gosger. It’s also crazy to think that the winner of the Dubai World Cup wouldn’t be one of the shorter prices, but that’s the case with Hit Show (#11). He ran his best Beyer Figure two back at Mountaineer when race day Lasix was permitted to be given, however, that’s not on the table here. He wasn’t as sharp in his two races at Churchill since that monumental score in Dubai. He has a pair of wins in two starts on this oval. He certainly has a shot in this one. 

Race 10:

The meet will conclude with the second division of a maiden special weight race for two year olds going 1 ⅛ miles over the turf course. On paper, this looks like the deeper of the two heats. Take note that Chambersville (#1), who was cross-entered yesterday in New York, did not draw into that race, so I’m expecting him to make the trip here from his home base at Belmont. Triton (#6) makes a lot of sense in this race. He debuted against Chambersville in a maiden race at the end of the Saratoga meet. He was clearly better than his rival that day as he was in some tight spots throughout the backstretch ride. He didn’t have much of a lane to go through until less than halfway through the stretch. She came through on the rail with a bold bid, finishing a close third and galloping out comfortably in front. Chambersville was not a factor in that race,m but he was much sharper last time out at Aqueduct where he was a narrow second place finisher. Castellano did a nice job to keep him closer to the pace in his most recent race after getting stuck near the back of the pack in that first try. Irad Ortiz takes the mount for Ken McPeek, who has another winner here on Friday. Triton is starting at 10-1 on the morning line and Chambersville is the 7-2 morning line favorite. I’ll keep Chambersville on the B line because of the odds disparity, especially when I think Triton was clearly the better horse on debut. However, if that gap shrinks, or Triton is hammered down to a shorter price than his rival,  I’d be more inclined to the McPeek runner more prominently.  Brendan Walsh had two experienced in the first division of this race and he’ll send out two first time starters in this one. Wargamer (#4) is the one that interests me more. Tyler Gaffalione typically rides first call for this barn at this meet and in general. They’ve paired up 311 times since the start of 2024, winning at a 17% clip together. They’ve won 21% of the time together in that span at Keeneland. The works are solid for this horse with a long distance turf pedigree. While debuting at this distance is no easy feat, I think this one has a live look in the nightcap as well. 

2025 Fall Meet Statistics (As of 10/23/25), Top Pick Winners:

31/137 (22.6%), $296.66, $2.17 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.