The final Grade 1 race of the Spring Meet at Keeneland is the Jenny Wiley Stakes, which is the 9th race on the card. After that, the final North American Derby Points race, The Grade 3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes, will be run. First post this afternoon is set for 1:00 (ET).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 6 | 6 | 3,7 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 2 | 12 | 12,11 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6,4 | 7 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 4 | 9 | 9,7 | 8,4 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 5 | 11 | 11,12,3 | 10 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | |
| 7 | 6 | 6,7 | 2 | DBL, PK3, PK5,
All-Turf PK3 (R7,R9 R11) |
|
| 8 | 12 | 12,5,10 | 3 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 9 | 1 | 1,7 | 6 | DBL, $3 Late PK3 | |
| 10 | 1 | 1 | 10 | DBL | |
| 11 | 6 | 6,4 |
Race 1:
We’ll start off the day with a $30K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. I’m siding with Nuts and Bolts (#6), who is one of two runners in this race going for Ken McPeek. Brian Hernandez getting the mount here suggests that this one is the preferred runner. She comes in from Oaklawn where she recently finished second in a sprint at a level comparable to this one. Her pedigree suggests that she should be able to handle the added distance that comes with this race. Starbrite Starlite (#3) is an interesting price play who is making his first start for Matthew Sims. He was wide two back when finishing 6th in an off the turf maiden special weight race at Tampa. While he didn’t run great that day, I think his last race on the turf was better. He’s been working over the dirt though and figures to be upset-minded today. I’ll also include Galatina (#7) on some tickets. She was knocking on the door at this level prior to going back to maiden allowance races on the turf. He has stepped up his game a bit and Luis Saez getting the assignment won’t hurt his chances.
Race 2:
Three year olds and up will go seven furlongs in this $20K maiden claimer. Four runners were cross-entered yesterday, but none of them drew into the body of the field. The racing office re-opened this race and they were able to attract another 16 runners to this level. Gentleman Jim (#12) is the play for me in this race. He’s been racing on the Tapeta in his last three starts. After a slow start to this meet, horses that last raced at Turfway Park have been thriving over the last few days. He’s been knocking on the door in restricted maiden races at Turfway and now he switches surfaces and drops to level that should be more competitive for him. Wild Cotton (#11) is an interesting price play in this race. He missed the break in his debut at Turfway and cost himself several lengths before they hooked up on to the main course at Turfway. I do like how he finished up in that race, which tells me that he’s going to be able to improve in this spot. I’m good with rolling two deep with both of these runners.
Race 3:
There’s a handful of runners in this $12,500 starter allowance race that just love to win races. Fountain Run (#6) might not be that kind of horse yet, he does have a decent amount of early speed. While King of Hollywood (#3) likes to be out front, I don’t think he can keep up with Fountain Run early on. He’s been on a win/lose trajectory for his last several starts and if that form holds up, he’s due for a win in this spot. He struggled in his most recent try at Oaklawn when catching a sloppy course there. I think he’s going to be tough to run down late. Money Run (#4) feels like the runner with the best shot to do just that though. He was excellent at Oaklawn in two starts this winter, He came to Colonial Downs to run in a $100K Handicap during their three day Virginia Derby Meet and he ended up catching a miserable time of day to be competing. The snow and wind were driving and there were several horses that afternoon that did not seem to be enjoying themselves, this gelding being one of them. Those two Oaklawn races were career top figures, so whether or not he can get back there while racing somewhere else remains to be seen. However, the fact that he has 9 wins in the 31 career tries tells me that there’s more than meets the eye with this one. On deeper tickets, Eye Dee Kay (#7) could be a contender in this race. He;s the morning line favorite for Kinnon LaRose, who is taking over as the trainer for Tom Amoss’ horses as he (Amoss) heads off into retirement. Irad Ortiz taking the mount at this level feels like a plus.
Race 4:
Fillies and mares, three and up, will go 6 ½ furlongs in this maiden special weight contest. It’s interesting to see four, three year old fillies in this spot, especially when considering that there is a maiden special weight contest, exclusively for three year old fillies carded at seven furlongs, later on in the card today. Outside of the two short prices, the runners with racing experience don’t really seem to match up with Shewontbudge (#4) or Rockin Robin (#8). Neither of those fillies are really getting me excited to wager on them though. It does feel like if one of these two runners isn’t the winner in this race, one of the first time starters will be the one to spring the upset. I’ll play both Mon Reve (#7) and Pinto (#9) on the A line in this race but using the other two fillies on the B line. Pinto is the top choice in this spot for norm Casse. She’s a three year old filly sired by Nyquist, who gets 21%winners with his debuting runners in dirt sprint races. She missed a month of training at the Fair Grounds so she has waited for this kind of spot to make her career debut. The works are respectable and the barn is capable.Mon Reve is one of two runners trained by Victoria Oliver in this race with the other being Bella Darling (#5). These two fillies have worked in company in their last two starts. I’m leaning toward Mon Reve as a three year old taking on older foes. While both A line runners are three year olds taking on older fillies and mares, I think this spot came up much easier than the maiden allowance race later in the day that looks absolutely loaded.
Race 5:
The first turf race of the afternoon is a maiden special weight for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles. This race oversubscribed and was split into two divisions, with the second race being the nightcap today. I like a lot of horses on the outside in this spot. Both Newman (#10) and Provider (#11)squared off in their first two career starts at the Fair Grounds. They faced Black Hornet, who was a next out stakes winner, on debut, and Provider was a little bit better. Both colts had their share of trouble last out, but Newman finished in front of his rival that day. While the outside post was not easy to navigate, I thought the ride on Provider was rough to watch. He was well wide into the first turn and was sent up three wide to try to get a better position on the second turn. He was hustled to the front early, making a solid move, before getting a little leg weary late. Between the ground he covered and being asked to accelerate at multiple different points in the race, I thought his effort was better than it looked on paper. Juan Hernandez is a very good rider, and even though he doesn’t ride here much, it’s definitely an upgrade for him. I’m going to use both, but I think Provider has a little more upside. He’ll be on the top pick and on the A line, while Newman will be a B line play for me. Wraithchild (#12) is the second foal to race from the 2018 Juvenile Fillies Turf winner, New Money Honey. Her first foal is a two time winner on the turf, and I thought this War Front colt made a good first impression. He was patient while in behind a wall of horses and when he needed to advance, he did so at will, pulling himself into the race and in a good position to tip out and make a run at the leader, who was afforded a slow pace. New Money Honey was much better in her second career start and I think he will be as well. Comprehensive (#3) makes a ton of sense in this spot as well. He has had the misfortune of losing three straight photos in maiden allowance races at Gulfstream. His foundation might make him better than these at this moment. He’s also drawn inside a lot of the runners that have some upside. I do wonder how hard he finishes though, as he’s wound up on the short end of the stick so many times.
Race 6:
Seven older runners will go 1 ⅛ over the main track in this optional $80K claiming/N2X allowance race. There’s some interesting similarities between the two short prices in this race, Authentic Strike (#2) and Conquest Warrior (#7). Both runners flashed a lot of potential early in their careers and both missed significant time due to injury. Both horses resurfaced in February with Authentic Strike running at Oaklawn and Conquest Warrior coming back at the Fair Grounds. Both runners ran big figures that were career tops while coming up just a bit short in those races. They’ll meet for the first time today in this race where they’re being asked to get nine furlongs. I do wonder about a potential bounce for both runners. While either could be easy winners in this race, I think this could be a spot to try to beat both. I’m going to make Excite (#1) the top pick. He came back from a layoff in a four horse field at this level at Gulfstream in his most recent start. Navajo Warrior and Gosger are both serious racehorses and they were in a race of their own, as he was allowed to ease up late since he was clearly last in that race. He loves this distance, which does not come as a surprise since his dam, Elate, won both the Alabama and the Delaware Handicap, both at 10 furlongs. He was a winner at this distance on this course in the fall and I think he’ll be much more competitive in this race today. Original Sin (#3) is also worth considering. He was well beaten by Conquest Warrior last out, but there were spots of trouble that didn’t help his cause. While his dam’s other two runners were more effective in longer sprint races, he seemed to flourish when getting two turns for the first time two starts ago. Overall, his last three efforts were pretty solid, so I think he’s a horse that could be rolling late.
Race 7:
The Late Pick-5 and the All-Turf Pick-3 begin with this N1X allowance race going a mile on the turf. I really liked the effort from the favorite, Arkhipov (#6) when breaking his maiden at Tampa in his last start. He was shuffled near the back but Samuel Marin found a seam and was asked to quicken early on to secure a spot. He waited and then re-broke at the top of the stretch to win going away. There aren’t a lot of horses that have multiple moves like that in their arsenal and I think his future could be higher. Noble Confessor (#7) for Todd Pletcher is the clear alternative. He’s graded stakes placed at longer distances, but he’s looking to prove that the mile is within his capabilities. He’s making his second start off the layoff after an effort that was a little flat in his first of the year. Drawing the rail that day didn’t help his cause either. A deeper saver for me is Love’m or Liam (#2) for Bill Mott. He’s gradually improving and finally broke through in his first start on the Tapeta after seven previous tries. His lone start on the turf was better than it looks, so there’s a chance that if he moves forward, he could be able to compete with the top two.
Race 8:
Three year old fillies will go seven furlongs in this maiden special weight contest. I think this is a fairly wide open race, so coverage is going to be important. I landed on Al Ghadeer (#12) making her first start since a respectable debut at Churchill in November. She was near the front while racing in the middle of a compact group. She closed with interest when tipping out and coming with a wide bid. I like the she was able to adapt when breaking from the rail in a large field. She handled the distance and she’s been working well since that race. She’s a full sibling to a Grade 3 winner on the dirt. While she might be better at longer distances, I think she fits well with this group today. She’s Our Ten (#5) was herded to the rail after the break in her debut at the Fair Grounds last month. She was shuffled to the back of the pack and moved out wide. She was steadily advancing and got into 4th when going six furlongs. She was moving well in the later stages of that race and now she gets an extra furlong for a barn that excels with runners in their second time out. Outside of the two year old races, we’ve yet to see a first score in any of the maiden races at this meet. Perhaps that will change here because there are some promising runners that are stepping on the course for the first time. La Rascasse (#10) debuts for William Walden in this race, and there’s interest in seeing what this one can do. Resolute Racing paid $750K for this daughter of Authentic. She was working well on the synthetic course at Turfway for a barn that has had a breakout year. Walden does very well with debut runners, so I think this one will be prepared. Her best races might be ahead of her on the turf, but I trust the connections. I’ll use the favorite, Right Timing (#3) as a backup in this spot. She led most on the way in her debut at Tampa, only to be nailed in the final strides. There’s no reason to think that she won’t improve in her second try, but this is a much deeper group than she saw down in Florida. Brown’s barn has been cold to start off at this meet, so I’m not really interested in taking too short of a price on her.
Race 9, The Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes:
I see this Grade 1 race on the turf as Chad Brown vs. Brendan Walsh. While Brown is more accomplished in general, I think both of his runners, Dynamic Pricing (#5) and Segesta (#10) are vulnerable while making their first starts of the year. Meanwhile, both Expensive Queen (#1) and Lush Lips (#7) have at least one start under their belts, and I think both are sitting on a better effort. Expensive Queen is the pick for me. She was very impressive when breaking her maiden in her North American debut. A month later she got on a plane and shipped to California for the Grade 1 Gamely. That felt like it was asking a lot from her and she kind of ran that way. She was sidelined until January and I feel like this race has been circled on her calendar for some time now. She’s been an easy winner in her first two tries this year. I think she can come running late here. Lush Lips has been nothing short of amazing in her career. She won the QE II Cup here last season and she came back with a win in the Grade 3 Honey Fox over at Gulfstream in her last start. Since joining Walsh’s barn in November of 2024, she has six wins and three second place finishes in nine total starts. Two of those losses came at the hands of Nitrogen, who was the Champion three year old filly last season. She handled older runners with ease last time and I think she’ll be right there once again today. On deeper tickets, I think Deep Satin (#6) is worth considering. She was probably the best horse in the race in the First Lady Stakes here in the fall. She drew in off the AE list and she was wide every step of the way. She still finished within ½ length of the winner who had a sweet trip. I thought her effort in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa last summer was really good, and despite being 0-3 on this course, she has some decent efforts.
Race 10, The Grade 3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes:
The final Derby Prep race of the season is this 1 1/16 mile contest, however, it’s highly unlikely that it will have any bearing on the Kentucky Derby next month. However, Gosger was an impressive winner of this race last year and he went on to run very well to be second in the Preakness. While the Brad Cox duo of Ezum (#9) and Confessional (#10) are going to get most of the public attention, I think Corona de Oro (#1) has a huge shot in this race, despite just breaking his maiden. Dallas Stewart has done a nice job bringing this colt along over the winter. He took a little break after finishing third here last season. He came back with a pair of excellent efforts at the Fair Grounds. He just missed in a good six furlong maiden race, but he passed the two turn test with ease when breaking his maiden at this distance in his last start. I’m not convinced that Ezum can run back to his last race when going a one turn mile at Colonial when facing a maiden field that was lacking in any real talent. Corona de Oro has faced much better foes and his post is much more desirable. Confessional was my pick in both the Holy Bull and the Virginia Derby, but I don’t think he was very impressive in either. Maybe this is the right spot, but I’m not even sure he wants to go two turns. He’ll be my backup because at least he’s been facing reasonable opposition.
Race 11:
The nightcap is a maiden special weight contest for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. I landed on West End Kid (#6) as the top pick in that race. I thought his debut at Gulfstream was fairly strong. He broke sharply, but opted to settle behind a wall of runners vying for early supremacy. He was pumped on for a little bit before he figured out what he was being asked to do. He was forced to steady a bit when he was squeezed at the top of the stretch. However, he re-rallied with a strong late move to get into 4th, beaten less than two lengths. Blinkers go on this afternoon and Tyler Gaffalione replaced John Velazquez, as he’s riding at Oaklawn today. Heeere’s Johnny (#4) makes a lot of sense while dropping back into the maiden ranks. He ran well in the lead up to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He was able to draw in despite being a maiden. He drew the rail that day and might have been spooked that there was not another horse directly to his left when coming out of the gate. He wound up being in 14th place early on while they cooked up front. He tried to follow the run of the race winner Gstaad, but he couldn’t really go with him, finishing a respectable 5th. The form from that race has held up well. I do worry that he’s going to be hammered at the windows though.
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
