We’re back with another nine race, Thursday afternoon card. Four of the nine races today are on the turf, including a N3X allowance feature race which was split into two different heats. First post for this nine race program is set for 1:00 (ET).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 4 | 4,1 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 5,4 | 1,8 | DBL, PK3, PK4 |
| 3 | 8 | 8,2 | 6 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 4 | 5 | 5,4 | 3 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | |
| 5 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 4 | DBL, PK3, PK5,
All-Turf PK3 (R5, R7, R9) |
| 6 | 3 | 3,7 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 7 | 6 | 6,8 | 9 | DBL, $3 Late PK3 | |
| 8 | 8 | 8 | 9,1 | DBL | |
| 9 | 2 | 2,3 | 1 |
Race 1:
The Thursday card gets going with a $16K claiming race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. The heavy favorite in this race is Emirates Affair (#1). She’s coming in from California for Bob Hess, and she typically wins races she’s supposed to win. Her last two efforts haven’t been her best though. She’s been given a few months off and finds a decent spot to regroup. She’s a clear contender in this race, but she’s starting off at 3-5,which feels crazy low. I don’t think the gap between her and Sunset Harbour (#4) is as wide as the morning line figures suggest. Blinkers come off as she cuts back in distance to six furlongs for the first time since breaking her maiden at Gulfstream last summer. There’s definitely some hit and miss races in her form lines, so I don’t think I’d be super comfortable using her as a single. However, she gets out of Florida and she is campaigned by a high percentage trainer (Carlos David). I do think she has a legitimate chance to upset the favorite.
Race 2:
The apprentice toppled the master yesterday when former Wesley Ward assistant trainer,Phil Antonacci, trained the winner of the baby race yesterday, Pot’s Right. That filly beat and even money runner from the Ward barn, which snapped his streak of three straight maiden wins with two year olds at this meet. The word might have been out about that filly as she was hammered down to the second choice in the wagering, going off at 6/5. Arctic Wolf (#2) was going well with her in company in his latest work, and he’ll debut for this barn this afternoon. He doesn’t carry the same high price tag as his stablemate, however, his sire, Frosted does well with two year sprinters on debut (16%). The dam was solid in her first career start, but she was winless in her five career tries. This will be her first foal to race. Both Grandes Suenos (#5) and Super Saiyajin (#4) have a live look in this race at prices. Grandes Suenos debuts for Rey Hernandez. His debuting baby runners have been okay at this meet, finishing in the money in two of three starts. The dam has produced productive runners that have been competitive on debut. Super Saiyajin was a bomb when he debuted on Opening Day on a course that was sloppy and sealed. While he wasn’t going to catch the winner, I did like how he hung around in the end. He’ll be a big number again, but the being the only one to have the raceday experience under his belt feels meaningful. Ward has a pair of fillies set to take on the boys. Neither Ruiva (#1) or Paper Run (#8) are standouts on paper or in the morning. While this feels like a good time to take a stand against him, I’m not sure I want to go into a race like this and not have his runners covered just a little bit.
Race 3:
The first of four turf races on the card is a maiden special weight contest for fillies and mares sprinting 5 ½ furlongs. The four runners on the AE list were all included in the body of the field in a race at this condition tomorrow, so I’ll assume that they all will be scratched in this race. I liked the debut at five furlongs on the synthetic for Headspin (#8) last month at Gulfstream. He was bumped at the break and relegated toward the back of the field in the early stages. She was rolling well late, while moving between runners. I think she’ll appreciate the move to the turf and the extra half furlong that she’s going to get in this race today. Gellhorn (#2) cuts back to a sprint after fading late in a one mile race at Gulfstream. She caught off tracks in her first two starts, both of which were taken off the turf in New York. She was advancing on the turn in her first turf race at Saratoga, but you could see the moment where something went awry and Irad Ortiz stopped asking for her best as she plummeted to the back of the field. She was away for six months before coming back in Florida, where she showed she can compete on the lawn. Red Beach (#6) is a first time starter that I might want a little piece of in this race. She debuts for Gregory Sacco, who wouldn’t be here unless he thought his horse could contend. She’s sired by Omaha Beach, who gets 12% winners with his turf sprinters. The dam foaled a Graded Stakes winner on the turf. That horse was game in her debut in a turf sprint, in spite of some significant trouble lines. She came back to win in her second career start. Sacco has won with 10% of his older debut runners over the last five years. From that group, the subset of turf sprinters are 1-4.
Race 4:
This is a seven furlong sprint for $40K N2L claimers. I really liked La Houligan (#5) in his last start at Oaklawn when dropping into a $75K N2L claiming spot. However, an incident in the race all but eliminated him from competition as a loose horse forced him into the middle of the course on the turn. He had some tough trips when facing significantly better fields in two turn allowance races there. His one turn races at Colonial and Churchill are pretty sharp, so the cutback to seven furlongs for the first time in his career might be a welcome change. He’s better than his last two starts. Mo Work (#4) makes his second start off the layoff for Rusty Arnold. He didn’t look comfortable over the synthetic course at Turfway in his return race. He showed some promise during the spring meet at Churchill last year. Luis Saez was aboard for his first four starts, but was not riding him at Turfway in his last try. He’ll be back in the saddle today. The heavy favorite in this race is Shangrala Road (#3). Brad Cox continues to thrive at this meet as his runners won both ends of the late Double yesterday. He sends out this heavy favorite, who is dropping ion for a tag for the first time and cutting back to a sprint for the first time since his debut. There’s a chance that he could just be better than this crew, However, there’s enough uncertainty there to avoid getting too invested.
Race 5:
The All-Turf Pick-3 and the Late Pick-5 begins with this N3X allowance race going 1 1/16 miles. 20 horses filled the entry box, so the racing office split this race into two divisions, with the second going off as the nightcap. There is a lot of speed in this race and while there aren’t a lot of dedicated pacesetters, there are a lot of horses that want to be close to the front end. I think a horse like Green Light (#8) makes a lot of sense in this race, if he can relax near the back of the field in the early stages in this race. He ran a bizarre race at this level on this course in the fall. He broke well and settled near the middle of the pack when going into the first turn. As they straightened for the run down the backstretch, he prematurely surged, going from 5th place to vying for the lead in a handful of strides. He settled down again while three wide. He was asked to produce another move on the turn and he was responding before he hit the wall and faded to 7th. He was a winner on this course with a closing rush in 2024 and he had a strong race at Turfway coming back from the layoff. I think he might be up in time at the end. Maycocks Bay (#1) is a nice horse that showed he can be just as effective on the turf as he was on the dirt. He’s going to be a part of the pace battle though, since he’;s pretty much committed to go from his rail draw. He’s graded stakes placed on the dirt so the quality is absolutely there. A deeper saver and a horse I’d think about using underneath is Miranda Rights (#4). The quicker they go up front, the better his chances become. He was very sharp at this level three starts back, nearly pulling off the 40-1 upset. He was a little flat a few weeks later at Churchill and his first start off the layoff on the synthetic at Turfway was not great. He’s always been more effective on the lawn though so he should be more fit for this race.
Race 6:
The two favorites make a lot of sense in this N1X allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. However, the odds disparity between Ivory and Ebony (#3) and Clarita (#7) is fairly significant. Clarita is the 4-5 morning line choice while Ivory and Ebony is 7-2. If that holds up, I’d want more shares of Ivory and Ebony. If the will pays are telling me that gap is going to shrink, I’d be closer to a 50-50 split. Clarita was excellent in the slop when breaking her maiden at Churchill in November by 12. She came back in a five horse field at Gulfstream where she stumbled badly at the break and another rival stumbled worse, losing the rider. Johnny V. had to keep her in the clear as she went four wide early. Snowyte, who was the race winner, is a nice horse who had every advantage possible in that race. She still ran her eyeballs out though and Clarita was clearly 2nd best. She should be better, but it’s still debatable if she can match the best effort from Ivory and Ebony. She was second in stakes company at Churchill last fall. While I don’t love that she has five second place finishes and only one win, she’s faced some very nice horses in defeat.
Race 7:
Keeneland always tries to card some 12 furlong turf allowance races at both meets and this N2X contest is today’s marathon. Coiled (#6) is the top pick for Arnaud Delacour today. He was third in a 10 furlong race at this level at Turfway in his last start. Prior to that he was second in the H. Allen Jerkens Stakes going two miles on the lawn at Gulfstream. He has a win at this distance at Laurel when clearing the N1X condition in the fall. I think he’s only going to get better and he could be a horse that we could see in some of the nicer stakes races later in the year. Chapman’s Peak (#8) is a clear alternative to the top pick. His dam won the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley on this course back in 2017. This will be his first foray into a marathon type race, so it;s hard to take him as the favorite in a race where his main opponent showed he can hang at two miles. However, it’s hard to discount anything from the Cox barn at the moment. Concord Green (#9) is a consistent type that might be best suited for underneath in the verticals in this race. However, he’s a four year old that could be trending up, coming off a win in N1X company at this distance. There is some upside here as well.
Race 8:
Older runners will go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in this $25K starter allowance contest. Awesome Ruta (#8) is coming off a strong effort on the turf at the Fair Grounds, but his dirt form is solid as well. He’s looking to win his third straight race and he feels like a horse that is a new face that could make some noise in starter allowance company. Joe Sharp claimed him for $20K at Remington in December and this son of Mendelssohn already paid dividends. He’s always been reasonably consistent, but the recent victories seem like true confidence builders. Time for Trouble (#9) is a crafty veteran that knows how to win races. He’s found the Winner’s Circle 12 times 44 career starts. One of those wins came on this oval earlier in his career. He’s also 0-15 in stakes races, so his 12-29 record in races that are not stakes races is even more impressive. He was claimed off William Walden last out, and at nine years old, I’m not sure how high his ceiling is. However, I do think he has a decent chance in this race. Trusty Rusty (#1) is another longer priced option that is worth a look. He’s one of two California shippers in this race and while more eyes are going to be on Clooney (#5)m who is the morning line favorite, I’m not convinced that one is going to be able to maintain his current form after two months away and shipping across the country. Trusty Rusty has been generally more consistent, even though he’s finished second or third almost three times as much as he’s won.
Race 9:
While there’s a decent amount of speed in this first division of this N3X test, there’s not as much on paper for this heat. That may gave Smokey Mandate (#20 an edge at a decent number in this spot. He was going well last spring, nearly missing at this level at a decent number. He went to the sidelines and needed his first start back at Churchill. His last three starts came on the Tapeta at Turfway, and I don’t think that’s what he wants to do. His N2X score at the Fair Grounds last year when breaking from Post 12 was extremely impressive. Juan Hernandez gets the ride for Mike Maker and he’s made a favorable impression in the limited number of starters that he’s had at this meet thus far. I think he’ll be placed in a good stalking position where he might be able to get the jump on the closers in this race. I appreciate the second act of the career for Common Defense (#3). He was second best in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes back in 2024. After finishing off the board in the Louisiana Derby, he went to the sidelines for over a year. He’s been extremely competitive since getting on the turf. He just missed in the Grade 2 red Smith Stakes last fall and he was second again in a 10 furlong stakes race on the Tapeta at Turfway. McPeek gave him some time off and now brings him back for his first start of 2026. This race might be a prep for the Louisville Stakes at 12 furlongs on the turf at Churchill next month, so the 1 1/16 distance could be a touch short for him. I still think he’s worth using. Event Detail (#1) is another contender, making his second start off the layoff today. He was going in the right direction last spring, ending his season with a strong 4th place effort in the Grade 3 Arlington Stakes. He was wide and flat in his seasonal debut on the synthetic. I’m expecting improvement from him in this spot.
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
