There’s 11 races for the final Saturday card of the meet. The Grade 2 Visitlex Elkhorn Stakes and the Grade 3 Ben Ali Stakes will share the spotlight on the program Just a reminder that there will be no racing at Keeneland on Easter Sunday tomorrow. We’ll pick things up again on Wednesday for the final three days of the meet. First post this afternoon is set for 1:00 (ET).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 7 | 5,6,7 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 9 | 9 | 4 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 5,7 | DBL, PK3, | |
| 5 | 7 | 7 | 6 | DBL, PK3, | |
| 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | |
| 7 | 3 | 2,3 | 4,8 | DBL, PK3, PK5,
All-Turf PK3 (R7,R9 R11) |
|
| 8 | 5 | 5 | 8 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 9 | 9 | 1,6 | DBL, PK3 | ||
| 10 | 1 | 1,7 | 2 | DBL | |
| 11 | 4 | 4,7,12 | 8 |
Race 1:
We’ll kick things off with a $30K claiming race for three year old fillies going six furlongs. This is not a very inspiring group as four of the seven runners broke their maidens in front-running style while facing lower level maiden claiming types. Rose Rita (#7) is one of only two, two-time winners in this field, the other being the longshot shot on the board, Lylah Renee (#4),who beat her in February. Rose Rita started her career with Wesley Ward and she won two straight races on the dirt at Churchill, one in June with $40K maiden claimers and the other in November with $25K claimers. Robert Cline took over her training and her based at Turfway over the winter. She showed a regressing speed figure pattern, finishing in the money only once in that span. She’s bred to prefer the dirt, so I do feel she’s worth considering in this race while getting back on the surface where she did her best work. Joseph Ramos scored with an Asmussen three year old filly earlier this week and he’ll get the assignment for the first time on this daughter of Mitole. Digital Sale (#6) didn’t show much in her two races as a two year old, but she came back with a much stronger effort last month at Gulfstream, winning by two lengths in a $12,500 maiden claiming race. She was also allowed to race with Lasix for the first time that day, so between that and her growth over the winter, that could offer a viable explanation for her big step forward. I don’t love her as the favorite, but this is not a bad spot to face winners for the first time. Always Practical (#5) makes her 9th career start today and this will be her first on the dirt. She’s sired by Practical Joke, who gets 18% winners with his dirt sprinters. The dam did all of her work on the turf, but she has foaled a winner in a dirt sprint. Looking at the Timeform numbers, the final quarter mile should be a pretty slow one in this race. If she takes to the surface, I do expect her to be finishing the best.
Race 2:
There’s only six entered in this maiden special weight for three year olds going seven furlongs and 184 feet on the Beard Course. I tried to play against a Gulfstream shipper who was hammered in her debut, only to falter late in the version of this race for fillies on Thursday. The same type of horse runs in this spot for Todd Pletcher, and there’s not many better alternatives. Crudo (#4) made his first start two months ago in South Florida, where he was sent off as the 9-10 favorite. The dam has produced several capable runners, most notably being Sippican Harbor, who won the Grade 1 Spinaway as a two year old. She’s had several runners make it to the races, but the pairing with Justify feels like the best sire that she’s been matched with. Pletcher hasn’t had a great meet, but he had a nice winner on Thursday. The same could be said for John Velasquez, who got off the duck with a brilliant rail skimming ride with a 26-1 shot here Thursday (Surf City). I’ll eat chalk and try to find value elsewhere. The backup for me would be Night Agent (#1) for Shug McGaughey. He’s been beaten by double digit in his first two starts, however he ran into a beast last out who crushed a maiden field at Tampa on the Tampa Bay Derby undercard. Speed was good that day and this Ghostzapper colt was in chase mode from the jump. I think he’ll be better, but I think the Pletccher horse has the edge here.
Race 3:
A field of nine has entered for this $10K starter allowance race going 1 ⅛ miles on the main track. This is another race where the longer priced runners aren’t really interesting to me. The two that make the most sense are Executive Action (#4) and Copperlite (#9). Copperlite has five wins in 13 career starts and two straight wins at Tampa in starter allowance company. Executive Action has three wins in four tries at this distance, and is 11-36 overall. From a speed figure standpoint, he’s generally slower than what we’ve seen from Copperlite and as a four year old, Copperlite figures to have a little more upside than his six year old rival. Executive Action is a better horse on a fast dirt track, and he’s caught sealed and sloppy courses in his last two. If Copperlite is going to lose in this race, I think the trip is what could do him in. At the end of the day, I still trust Jose Ortiz more than I trust Gerrardo Corrales, who rides Executive Action. Copperlite is the A line play and I’ll use Executive Action on the B line.
Race 4:
The first of four races on the turf today is a N1X allowance race for three year old fillies going 1 1/16 miles. This is a rare turf race that did not draw a full field, as only seven are entered here. There isn’t much speed signed on for this contest, so on paper that could favor Good Temper (#6), who has a pair of gate to wire wins in her four race resume. However, she had the rail for both of those wins and she’s drawn outside today. I think there’s a chance that either Jalila (#1) or El Joury (#5) could use their inside position to secure an early lead. Jalila has two turf starts and both of them, she drew the far outside post. She didn’t run poorly either time, but the outside post likely cost her a few lengths both times. I didn’t love the ride that she got from Paco Lopez in that race either. In spite of being wide on both turns and being ridden into trouble at two different points, she finished 4th, less than three lengths behind the winner. Luan Machado gets the call today, and while he’s been cold at this meet, it’s worth noting that Irad Ortiz, Flavien Prat, and Irad Ortiz, are all racing at Oaklawn today, so the jockey colony today is not as deep as it normally is. She has shown ability and I think the post relief and the pace scenario favors her here. I think she has a big chance today at long odds. If Machado doesn’t send from the rail, I don’t think Jose Ortiz will concede inside position with El Joury. Her figures are flat, but she is making her second start off the layoff and she has a maiden breaking win over this course in a race where the pace was slow. Brendan Walsh has had many live runners at this meet, and I think securing Jose Ortiz to ride will help her cause. Fixin to Bee (#7) is the favorite while dropping out of stakes company for George Arnold. She has some tactical speed and she’s another runner that has a win over this course. I think she’ll be closer to a slow or moderate pace than both Calmate (#2) and Golden Sunshine (#4), which makes her more desirable.
Race 5:
Three year olds and up will go 6 ½ furlongs in this $40K N2L claiming race. Top Gun Rocket (#7) doesn’t win a ton, but he just feels faster than his nine rivals in this race. He’s probably peaked at a low 80’s Beyer kind of horse, but other than Colorado Cruiser (#6), I don’t see anyone in this race that has been able to run that kind of race or has a pattern of running lines that would make me believe they’re going to run that kind of race here. Top Gun Rocket is consistent and getting class relief while cutting back to a one turn race on the dirt after a respectable turf try in allowance company last time out. This is who he is, and that should be good enough to beat this field. Colorado Cruiser is the logical backup in this race. His best race can beat the favorite, but you have to go back to December of 2023 to find that effort. He is coming off a disastrous race at two turns on the Tapeta at Turfway in January, and he was not a factor in his previous three tries at one turn. He is getting class relief and I do think that would be more meaningful if Top Gun Rocket was not in this field.
Race 6:
The Pick-6 begins with a $62,500 claiming race for four year olds and up, going 6 ½ furlongs. I don’t love the favorite, Cat On Time (#2) in this race, as I don’t think this distance suits him very well. He has two big races on sealed wet tracks in New Orleans, but his fast track form pales in comparison to the others here. He won’t be on any of my tickets. I think this is great spot for Honky Tonk Highway (#3). It is fair to point out that Jose Ortiz, who is the best rider on the grounds today, rode both him and Cat On Time to victory in New Orleans over the winter, and he does land on the favorite. However, I think from a pace standpoint, this City of Light gelding fits very well with this compact group.He faded to 7th when trying the turf in a 5 ½ furlong dash last time at the Fair Grounds. The last time he tried that move, he came back in his next start to break his maiden by six lengths. He cleared the first level allowance in March and then, off the layoff, cleared the N2X condition at the beginning of the Fair Grounds meet in November. He was away until March, so he now makes his second start off a shorter layoff today. He has enough speed to set the pace if he wants to, but I’d also be okay if he ended up stalking the pace behind How’s Ur Attitude (#1) if that one is not willing to concede the lead. Lugan Knight (#5) is the backup for me in this race, getting back on the dirt after three Tapeta tries at Turfway. He finished off the board in each of those races, all of which came at the second level allowance condition. He was a winner the last time that he dropped in for a tag. His best chance here is if How’s Ur Attitude and Honky Tonk Highway end up battling for the lead.
Race 7:
This 5 ½ furlong turf sprint allowance for fillies and mares, drew a very contentious field. I landed on Cloudwalker (#3), getting back on the course she loves today. She has two wins and a game third place finish in three starts at this distance on this course. She was a winner in the fall in a similar race, but she came up empty when trying stakes company in the Pan Zareta Stakes at the Fair Grounds a month later. Walsh gave her a little time off and then brought her back in the Queen Stakes at Turfway last month. She split the field in that 11 horse contest, which gives her a starting point for 2025. She makes her second start off the layoff and gets Jose Ortiz to ride. I think she’s going to be tough. Daring Duchess (#2) break in the stall next door to the top pick. She won the Alywow Stakes going 6 ½ furlongs on the turf at Woodbine last year and she ran a strong race to finish a close 5th in the Coronation Cup at the Spa. Cloudwalker was a length better than her in that spot. She struggled a bit in her last two starts of the year as a three year old. She came back in the Captiva Island where she finished 4th, about three lengths behind the morning line favorite in this race, Bandonarun (#4). With a good trip, I can see her making up that gap. Bandonarun put up a big figure in that stakes race last out. She improved as the Championship Meet at Gulfstream progressed. She was a promising filly based in Maryland before an injury sidetracked her career. Her first two starts weren’t quite up to par, but she ran much better in the Captive. The pace could be hot in this race, and she’s going to have to keep finding for an extra half furlong today. I think she can do it, but there are some doubts. I feel the same way about Julias Dream (#8). Her first two starts on the turf were very good, but her last three starts in general leave a lot to be desired. She’ll need to prove she can right the ship, and the pace scenario isn’t the best for her, However, she’s pretty quick and could be hanging around late with the right trip.
Race 8:
I have to wonder if there’s a little regret from Brad Cox with starting Just a Touch (#5) in this spot as opposed to the Ben Ai later on the card. I think from top to bottom, this optional claiming/N2X allowance race came up tougher than the Grade 3 race for similar horses. I respect the conservative approach with Just a Touch though, as there was a lot thrown at him in a short amount of time in his three year old season. He broke his maiden impressively in the slop at the Fair Grounds and then earned a spot in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby by finishing second in both the Gotham and the Blue Grass. He was the last place finisher on Derby Day, but he was much sharper two months later when he just missed in the Iowa Derby. He went to the sidelines before coming back in a N1X allowance race back at the Fair Grounds last month and he put on a show, winning by over 10 lengths and posting a 102 Beyer Speed Figure. That was a big effort off the bench though and the fact they opted for this spot instead of a stakes race is slightly curious. However, he has the pace edge here and on paper, he;s faster than the rest. Gould’s Gold (#8) has been on the sidelines since winning the Smarty Jones at Parx last August. He might need this race, but he does have more tactical speed than a lot of his rivals in this spot. He was an Oaklawn graduate last year that still has a bright future at four.
Race 9, The Grade 2 Visitlex Elkhorn Stakes:
13 are entered in this Grade 2 contest, but only a maximum of 12 will start in this 12 furlong turf marathon. I think Missed the Cut (#9) is a rebound candidate this afternoon for Cherie DeVaux. He was a game second in this race last year and he’s a graded stakes winner at this distance on both turf and dirt. He faltered at Royal Ascot last year and went to the sidelines for nine months before returning to the races in the Grade 3 Mac Diarmida Stakes. He broke well and was settling in the middle of the pack, where he likes to be. However, there was a chain reaction event and he took the worst of it, falling to last, spotting the field several lengths while doing so. He rallied through traffic to get up for 6th, but his race was run before they went into the first of three turns. I think his running style fits well with this race and if he can get a smoother trip, I think he can avenge his 2024 defeat here. Limited Liability (#6) is the one to beat in this race, making his first start since losing by a neck in the Grade 3 William L. McKnight Stakes at Gulfstream. He can run all day, so the 12 furlong distance of this race is well within his range. For a short price, he doesn’t win a ton, only finding the Winner’s Circle four times in 20 career starts. He’s definitely going to be in the mix, but I do think he can be had. Rebel Red (#1) was right behind him in the Red Smith two starts ago, finishing only a nose back of him. He was flat in the Muniz at Churchill when making his first start since that race last month. DeVaux also trains him, and he has the look of the kind of horse that will appreciate the distance of this race.
Race 10, The Grade 3 Ben Ali Stakes:
With the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap, which offers a $1.25 million purse, being contested this afternoon, this race definitely loses some contenders. However, there are some four year olds that are trending in the right direction. San Siro (#1) gets some class relief after running in a small, but mighty, running of the New Orleans Classic at the Fair Grounds last month. He ran a big race there prior to dipping his toes into stakes company for the first time. He has good efforts at nine and ten furlongs, so the 1 3/16 mile distance here should suit him well. Brendan Walsh took home the top prize in the Doubledogdare yesterday with a bomb, so he’s looking for another feather in his cap for this week. Uno Mas Bourbon (#7) was competitive in the Fayette here last fall when taking on older horses as a three year old. He crossed the wire fourth in the Clark, but he had his number moved up to third. Wilkes gave him a few months off and then brought him back in an allowance race going a one turn mile at Gulfstream. He has a strong late kick, but the lack of early speed in this race might be troubling for him. I see him as a contender though. I referenced the win by Walsh’s Gin Gin yesterday in the feature race. She inherited the lead when Just FYI went wrong and was pulled up. Front end speed in a slower tempo race can be very dangerous, regardless of how the form lines look. Prince of Power (#2) could be on a lonely lead on the front end while setting a slow to moderate pace in this one. He was not a factor at long odds in the Commonwealth 11 days ago. He’s a better two-turn horse and he ran a valiant race in the Dust Commander Stakes at Turfway two starts ago. He could be a sneaky horse to backup with here.
Race 11:
There are plenty of live chances in this N1X allowance that will end the week of racing at Keeneland. I’ll try the first Paulo Lobo runner of the meet, Rocky Joy (#4). He was starting to figure things out last fall, just missing here and then breaking through in maiden allowance company at Churchill in November. He tried synthetic sprints twice at the Turfway meet, and was okay in the first, but dull in the most recent try. Getting back to two turns should be favorable and I think he could be on the lead early, where he does his best work. Rothschild (#7) came back with a strong effort in his first start as a four year old last month at Gulfstream. He was graded stakes place multiple times last year as a three year old, so the class is there from this son of Uncle Mo. He just missed at this level last time and he figures to be right in the mix again. Wesley Ward continues to do well at this meet, scoring again with two winners on Friday. He sends out Ciro di Marzio (#12) for his third North American start today. He’s been working well over the dirt course here after two strong races in California. Mike Smith is named to ride, but I’m not sure that he’s going to be riding here today. I don’t know if that’s a sign that this one will be scratched if Ward will go to the bench for a rider. That is something to keep an eye on as Smith was named to ride some horses earlier in the meet and ended up not doing so. Then (#8) is the morning line favorite after a strong effort at Gulfstream in February. He’s been very sharp in two starts since being moved to Antonacci’s barn, however he has had slime gate issues in the past. I don’t love being anchored to a favorite that struggles to break. He’s more of a saver for me.
Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners Through 4-18-25:
30/104 (28.8%), $261.43 – $2.51 ROI
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
