The remnants of Hurricane Isaias are expected to roll through town starting on Saturday afternoon and lasting throughout the day on Sunday. There are two turf racs carded for the day and both appear to be in jeopardy of staying on the grass, especially with the Breeders’ Cup coming up in a few weeks. I’ll handicap those races for both surfaces this afternoon. First post for today’s program is set for 1:00 (ET).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 2 | 8 | 8,7,10 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8,6 | DBL, PK3 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | |
| 5 | Turf: 3
Dirt: 11 |
3,11
11,3 |
9
12 |
DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 6 | 5 | 5,11 | 10 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 7 | 5 | 5 | DBL, $3 Late PK3 | ||
| 8 | Turf: 7
Dirt: 5 |
7
5,1 |
5 | DBL | |
| 9 | 6 | 6,3 | 7 |
Race 1:
The day starts with a six horse field in this $20K starter allowance going 1 1/16 miles over the main track. A sealed and sloppy course should only make things easier for the favorite, Indy Charges On (#3) in this race. He was the lone speed going into the race and historically, sealed courses here can be very friendly to front end speed. He finished second in his only other trip to Keeneland. He;s making his second start off the claim and his second start off the layoff, which should put him in a prime position to run his best race here. If he does, it feels like the others will be battling for the balance in this race. Creative Minister (#5) is the backup play for me in this spot. He’s a seven year old gelding that has lost a step or two, however, he’s still a useful runner. He has decent efforts on this course in the past and should be sitting on a better effort in his second try off a layoff. He feels like he could pace compromised here, but he makes sense in the battle for second best.
Race 2:
14 runners are entered in this $30K maiden claiming race going 1 1/16 miles over the main track. As per usual, there will be a maximum of 12 starters. I thought the effort from Flume’s Vino (#8) at this level at Churchill last time out was better than it looks on paper. He was caught four wide going into the first turn before settling in the three path while taking back off the leaders. He was caught wide on the second turn and asked for a run earlier than I think Edgar Morales would have liked. Despite covering a lot of ground, he did keep fighting, finishing in this place at 38-1. He’s had experience on a sloppy track when debuting at Ellis, so I don’t think that would be an issue in this race. Bourbonkoma (#7) is a live longshot in this race, coming back to the dirt after a respectable return in a turf sprint at Kentucky Downs. His lone two turn dirt race was not good when competing at Oaklawn last winter. However, he went to the sidelines for nine months after that race so something was clearly amiss. His Tomlinson Figure suggests that he could appreciate an off going today. I think he can build off his last race while dropping in for a tag for the first time. Diamond Eyed Jack (#10) will take some money in this race despite a dull effort when going 12 furlongs on the turf in his last try. He’s had several chances to break the maiden, but he’s continually come up a bit short. This will be the lowest level that he’s competed at.
Race 3:
Fillies and mares will go one mile on the dirt in an open $20K claiming race. I think Cora’s Legacy (#8) is a live longshot in this race. She ran a strong race three starts ago at Churchill when she just missed in an open $16K claimer. She dropped in class and was claimed for $7,500 at Ellis in her next start. She tried starter allowance company in her last start and she had a rough go at the break. She is more of a traditional two turn horse where that is not necessarily the case with some of the others here. The outside draw at this distance is not ideal, but she can handle an off track and if she can run back to her effort three back, she would likely be right there. Sassy Princess (#6) is one of two horses trained by David Jacobson in this race and she’s the one that will likely be sent for speed. She’s coming out of three six furlong races in a row, where she was close to the front, but not on the lead. She likes be out front in long races and assuming the track will be wet, that might not be the worst thing today.
Race 4:
Fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles in this $40K N2L claiming contest. Lunar Buzz (#5) is a Delaware invader coming in for this race and she might be the pacesetter by default here. She ran into a beast, Intrepids Fantasy, two back and that speedy filly has three wins by a combined total of 23+ lengths. She had a wide draw last out and was forced to stalk. She was wide early and was in behind runners when the race winner made her run at the front. She never really had a clear path to run through, but she still finished with interest in that allowance race. She moves barns and runs with a tag for the first time. There are several in this race that are suspect, so I think she could be a very sneaky play in this one. I’ll back up with Quinn’s Promise (#1) who makes sense for Steve Asmussen. She’s getting back to a route after some sprint races where she hasn’t quite been as sharp. She’s one that might not mind a sloppy course, as she broke her maiden on a muddy and sealed course earlier in her career. Steve and Keith Asmussen teamed up to win the nightcap here on Friday.
Race 5:
The first of two races carded for the turf is a N1X allowance race going one mile. If it comes off the turf, it will be run at one mile on the main track. I don’t think there’s much chance that this race stays on the turf, but if it does, I think Golden Channel (#3) would be where I’d land. I/m willing to draw a line through his last at 12 furlongs. He has three near misses at this level against solid groups and his effort in the Pennine Ridge last year in the slop would be good enough for me to keep him on the tickets on the dirt. Free Advice (#11) is another runner that would be on tickets on either surface. He’s capable on any track and he’s in very good form for Thomas Humphries. He’s the top pick on the dirt for me. On dirt, I’d also throw in Miracle Mark (#12). While he is 0-11 on the dirt, he’s been competitive many times. He’s fairly consistent, which makes him desirable in a race with all sorts of questionable dirt form. Irish Law (#9) would be the backup for me on the turf. He faltered in his last at Kentucky Downs when going shorter, but his two turn effort at Ellis was much stronger.
Race 6:
The late Pick-4 begins with a maiden special weight for two year olds going 6 ½ furlongs on the main track. I’ll try Champagne Coast (#5) on top in his second start. He debuted at seven furlongs at Saratoga and faced a tough group. He was in range early before fading late. He’s had three maintenance works over this course and shortening up in distance a little bit here. Life Is Good is a serious sire and the dam has already produced a multiple graded stakes winner on the dirt. I think you’ll see a better effort from him in this spot. Invasion (#11) looks like a well-meant first time starter for Brad Cox. The dam’s first foal didn’t show much on the track, but the fact that this one fetched $300K at auction in May suggests to me that he’s built differently. He’s had a steady worktab, as many of Cox’s runners do. Liam’s Map gets 13% winners from his debuting runners in dirt sprints. On deeper tickets, I’ll use Hillbilly Kobe (#10). He debuted against winners in a $250K allowance race there last month. He didn’t run a step, but at that purse, I suppose it was worth the shot. He’s another one purchased for six figures this year and he drilled a very sharp 47:1 work at Churchill two weeks ago. I think he’ll be better in this spot today.
Race 7:
The $3 Late Pick-3 begins with an optional $80K claiming/N2X allowance race for fillies and mares going about seven furlongs over the Beard Course. I like Inefficiency (#5) for Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables in this race. She was excellent when going the one turn mile in her first two starts, including a debut win in the slop. She ran a decent third in the Grade 2 Ruffian before going to Monmouth where she struggled in the two turn Lady’s Secret Stakes. She took three months off and came back with a strong effort in her turf debut at this level over at Saratoga. I love the cutback in distance after the two turn turf race here. She’s my best bet of the day. Landed (#2) is the backup for me. She likes to be close to the lead, but she’s got Modo (#3) in the stall next door that is faster early on. She;s better at this distance and she’s a proven commodity on an off track. I think she can win the battle the morning line favorite, but I think the other filly is set up to win the war.
Race 8, The Grade 2 Franklin Stakes:
It’s definitely a shame that there’s so much rain in the forecast, because this is a very nice Grade 2 turf sprint. If it stays on the grass, I’m looking for a better effort from Ag Bullet (#7). She fell apart in the Ladies Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs last month, which is a tough race in general. She’s been close against the boys in the Jaipur and the Breeder’s Cup Turf Sprint in her last few starts. This is probably her best distance. Wesley Ward has two runners in this race, and while I like Kehoe Beach (#6) a lot as a horse, I don’t know if this is her best distance. Shoot It True (#5) is a talented horse who has been knocking on the door in big races. She got some class relief and went in a strong allowance race at Saratoga in her last start where she ran huge. She started her career on the dirt and has a few big efforts. I’m comfortable using her on either surface, and she’d be my top pick on the dirt. Usha (#1) is too classy to not use if this race comes off the turf. She won a pair of stakes races at Churchill when going six furlongs this summer for Baffert. The wet track will be a question mark, but she would likely be the class of whoever remains.
Race 9:
We’ll close out the week with a six furlong maiden special weight race for three year olds and up. Brad Cox sends out a 1.5 million dollar son of Charlatan, who is a half to the Grade 1 winner, Complexity. Emilio (#6) has been working better than many of the other Cox runners over the course in the mornings. Horses sired by Charlatan have won 12% of their debut races thus far when sprinting on the dirt. Irad Ortiz had four wins here on Thursday and he’s in the saddle today. Colossus (#3) is another pricey colt in here. Brendan Walsh takes over the training of this son of Constitution. He debuted here last fall and didn’t show much in that race. Since then, he’s been away, but his workouts have been improving of late as he nears his return. On deeper tickets, Tilt a Twirl (#7) is the rare maiden who finished first, but had his number taken down via DQ. He’s back in with maidens and he faces a tough group here. He’s been working well for his return after being sidelined since that June race. He is moving up in class, but the figures have him fitting with this group.
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
