Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Sunday, October 6th, 2024 – By Eric Solomon

Fall Stars Weekend comes to close with another excellent card of racing, headlined by the Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner, Idiomatic, used this race as her final prep before that race, and she’s back to retain her trophy. She’ll look to join Bornastar, Susan’s Girl, Bayakoa, Take Charge Lady, and Blue Prize as the 6th, two-time winner of this race. We’ll also see two year olds on the turf in the Indian Summer Stakes Presented by Keeneland Select and the Castle and Key Bourbon Stakes, which closes the afternoon. Six of the ten races this afternoon are for two year olds, so if you like betting juvenile races, this card which gets started at 1:00 PM (EDT), should be right up your alley. 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

I think Moving to Kentucky (#5) is going to be awfully tough to beat in this $30K maiden claiming race. He debuted here in the spring, going about seven furlongs on the Beard Course in an above average $40K maiden claiming race. He finished 4th, fading late in that one. He was away until August when he came back in a two turn turf race at Ellis at this level where he finished a close 6th. He ran better when trying two turns on the dirt for the first time last out when facing $20K maiden claimers at Churchill. He makes his third start off the layoff and his first start of the Christopher Davis claim. I think Luis Saez can have him in a good position to break his maiden with these. Anchises (#7) is the morning line favorite and where I’ll back up in this race. He could be the one that makes it to the front end to set the pace, while stretching out to a two turn race on the dirt for the first time. His last race with $25K maiden claimers at Gulfstream was far from his best. It remains to be seen if it was the added distance or the sloppy track condition that did him that afternoon. I don’t love him at short odds, but he does want to be on or near the lead, and that seemed to be a good thing in the first few days of racing here. 

Race 2:

Two year old fillies will dash six furlongs in this $50K maiden claiming race. Miss Tifeye (#12) gets the call, while breaking from the outside post here. She was stuck inside of runners in her dirt debut at Churchill when facing restricted maiden special weight company. She showed a decent amount of improvement from her debut on the turf at Ellis in August. Her trainer, James Baker, is 0-38 this year, so that must be considered when factoring the value here. She’s listed at 6-1, on the morning line and that is probably the lowest number that I’m capable of playing her at with this group. However, on paper, she looks like she could be tough. I’ll also use a pair of first time starters in this race. Sunna (#6) may be overlooked, as she’s trained by Kent Sweezy, who does not have great numbers with first time starters. However, I like Paco Lopez taking the mount here and I like the pedigree for this kind of race. She; the first foal to run from the mare, Warm, who was a useful Mid-Atlantic based horse. She was a winner in her second career start after blowing the break in her debut. The sire, Dominus, has sired 9 debut winners with 34 starters in maiden claiming dirt sprint races. Her works aren’t bad, so I like that the connections are making the trip. Wesley Ward sends out Wherever We Are (#10) with John Velasquez in the saddle. He was working well in August, but her last few works haven’t quite been as sharp. Freshman sire, Win Win Win, has sired two of 16 debut winners early on his stud career. It’s hard to be dismissive of any first timer coming from these connections. 

Race 3:

Two year old fillies will go one mile in this maiden special weight race. I think Rather Distinct (#6) is an interesting longshot in this race. She broke at the back of the pack in a maiden special weight race at Ellis when making her first career start. She advanced willingly while making a solid middle move to get within a length of the leader. She was four wide on the turn and was still fighting and passing runners to finish third behind a runaway winner. John Velasquez picks up the mount for her second start. I think with a better break, she can improve enough to be there at the wire with this group. I thought the winning effort from Destino d’Oro at Kentucky Downs was very impressive and she backed up that performance with a narrow defeat in the Jessamine Stakes here on Friday. By association, I would think that Golden Sunshine (#8) is worth considering in this spot. She drew post 12 for the one turn, one mile contest. She settled near the back of the field and came with a solid late bid to secure second, well in front of the third place finisher, Indigo Stunner. That one came back to beat a maiden special weight field at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Another runner that finished well behind Golden Sunshine, came back to win a two turn turf maiden special weight at Belterra. Clearly the class was there in that race, and as a result, I think there’s a good chance that she’s bet down lower than her 3-1 morning line figure. Regardless, she figures to be a major player with this group. Bembridge Ledge (#12) is another runner making her second career start. She debuted in a seven furlong race at Kentucky Downs where she was forwardly placed, finishing second behind Correto. That one scratched out of the Jessamine on Friday in favor of the Miss Grillo in New York this afternoon. She’ll try two turns for the first time today and she’ll likely have competition for the early lead. If she’s willing to try to sit a stalking trip, she could be dangerous if she can get first run on some of the closers. 

Race 4:

Two year olds will go seven furlongs in this maiden special weight contest. 25 horses filled the entry box, so the racing office split this race into two divisions, with the second coming in the 7th race today. While he didn’t earn a particularly fast figure, I thought the debut effort from Montador (#10) at Colonial Downs at the end of August was strong. He settled in midpack, not too far off the lead. He was forced to go six wide on the turn where his momentum took him to the front. He was caught late by Pascaline, who was able to surge late after saving considerably more ground. That one came back to beat eight rivals in the off the turf Laurel Futurity going one mile last month. Stidham has good numbers with horses second time out and he has very good numbers with runners adding blinkers for the first time. He was the first foal to make it to the track from the mare Landy Montdore. Her best win came in the Grade 2 Glen Falls Stakes at 11 furlongs on the turf. However, that one was foaled by the multiple graded stakes winner on dirt, Hystericalady. I think the added distance suits him well and I think having the racing under his belt will give him the edge over a few well-meant firsters. Cromwell (#11) is a half brother to the Grade 1 winner, Arabian Knight. That one came here on the Breeders’ Cup undercard and crushed a good field when going seven furlongs at first asking. He was trained by Bob Baffert who is much sharper with debut runners than Cherie DeVaux. However, she is certainly capable of winning with a debut runner. He’s yet another live runner coming from this barn in the early stages of this meet. Brad Cox sends out Sir Gallivant (#3), who is the morning line favorite. He’s working like a typical Cox horse , so he figures to be ready. Practical Joke is a strong debut sire in dirt sprint races. He’s the best sire that has been paired with the dam, Naughty Sister, who did foal a multiple Arkansas bred stakes winner. He’s playable, but I’m thinking he’s going to be overbet. 

Race 5:

The first race in the All-Turf Pick-3 and the Pick-6 is a fascinating allowance race for three year olds sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. Hedwig (#1) was cross-entered in the Woodford here yesterday. He was on the AE list and was going to be able to draw in. However, I think he’s a lot more interesting in this race, should he opt to stay more conservative. He’s made six starts and has finished in the money in four of them. His first off the board finish came on the downhill course in stakes company at Santa Anita, when also making his first start in three months. He came up a little short that day, and I’m typically okay drawing a line through a bad race on that course, assuming they have better races on a flat course. He was sharp when returning this summer at Ellis, and that effort was good enough for his connections to roll the dice with him in the Grade 1 Franklin Simpson Stakes at Kentucky Downs. He drew the rail in that field and had some major traffic issues. He showed some interest, but was shuffled to the back of the field when other horses were making their moves to the front. He finished with some interest, but his race was over at that point. I’m willing to forgive that effort because I do think he’s at his best on a flat course and of the four runners here coming out of that race, I thought his effort was considerably better than the others. I don’t love that he drew the rail again, so he is going to need to be a little lucky to avoid getting stopped in behind runners once again. I think he has the right running style to win this race and at odds of 8-1 (ML) or better, I’m willing to roll the dice with him. Both Hedwig and Baxley (#6) are cross-entered in other races, so there’s a real possibility that the two also-eligible runners in this field, Summer in Adriane (#13) and Whatchatalkinabout (#14) draw into this race. I think both are interesting runners should they compete. I prefer Summer in Adriane, making his first start for Mike Maker. He likes to run from the back of the pack and I think the pace scenario sets this race up for a deeper closer. Luis Saez is named to ride Hedwig as well. Almost all of the 12 runners in the body of this field want to be forwardly placed and only one of them (Hedwig) has won a race where they were farther back than third place at the first point of call. Something is going to have to give in this spot and there are going to be runners that are in uncharted territory for them. Summer in Adriane has never crossed the finish line first, breaking his maiden on debut via disqualification after the fact (He did face maidens two more times before being awarded first prize money, thus making him ineligible to run against maidens again). He’s a capable closer, but he’s never had a race where the pace completely melts down and I think that scenario is absolutely in play today. Perhaps Maker will be able to get a little more out of him should he get a chance to run. Whatchatalkinabout is the other Wesley Ward in the race. Ward and Dettori are also sending out Spirit’s Mischief (#8), who is in the body of the field. Whatchatalkinabout tries the turf for the first time after three decent efforts with New York breds on the dirt last year. He’s been away for almost a year, but Ward will certainly have him ready. This feels like a targeted spot for him, so I am interested, should he get the opportunity to compete. Apollo Ten (#12) didn’t run well at all in the Franklin Simpson Stakes at Kentucky Downs. Some horses don’t like that style of course and they don’t show up there. We see many horses come back from dull efforts there and run big races when getting back on the flat course. I thought his race in the Mahony was solid two back at Saratoga. He beat a depleted field three back in the My Frenchman Stakes at Monmouth when leading all the way on a course that was kind to front end speed. He has shown the ability to stalk and pounce, so his outside draw gives him the ability to sit that kind of trip. Bear River (#11) is looking to rebound after a pair of off the board finishes in competitive stakes races. He led most of the way before tiring late in the Van Clief Stakes at Colonial two starts back. He was facing a talented group of older runners in that field, so that 6th place finish wasn’t terrible by any stretch of the imagination. He was overmatched in the Franklin Simpson last month when he chased an aggressive pace and tired late. Prior to those two starts, he finished in front of Run Carson (#2) twice in a row, so the odds disparity of 4-1 on that one, compared to the 12-1 morning line price on him, feels like good value. 

Race 6: 

The Late Pick-5 begins with a $10K starter allowance race, going 6 ½ furlongs. A full field of 12 has signed on to participate in this one. There’s a lot of up and down form in this race, so trying to figure out who is going to show up is a bit of a challenge. Like a Saltshaker (#3) was an impressive winner at this level last fall, beating a better field and posting a gaudy 94 Beyer Speed Figure while doing so. He’s lost a step in his six year old season, but under the right circumstances, he can still fire. He’s won 15 of 36 career starts and finished second another eight times. Lloyd (#7) seemed to get good at Monmouth Park this summer, running several string races in a row. He drew the rail and wasn’t very comfortable when facing a decent N1X allowance field in his last start. Gaffalione picking up the mount for Panagiotis Synnefias is encouraging. This barn has won at a high percentage clip on the East Coast, so a win here would certainly be huge for their budding business. Born Flawless (#12) scratched out of a tougher spot on Friday in favor of this race today. He wants to be forwardly placed and he will have competition early. At longer odds, I’d be willing to roll the dice to see if he’d be comfortable stalking the pace from an outside post. There’s also the chance that Saez could try to catch a flyer from the gate and clear from his high draw. 

Race 7:

First time starters won 10 of 18 (55.6%) dirt sprint races here last fall and I think they have the edge in the second division of this maiden allowance race for two year olds going seven furlongs. I’ll try Spinback (#5) on top at a nice number for Mike Maker. There’s not a lot of pedigree to go off of on the dam side, but the fact that he sold for $230K last fall tells me he looks to have some ability. The Turfway works are solid for a barn that often sends out live runners at this meet. Master Sommelier (#6) might be working better than anyone in this spot. Andrew McKeever doesn’t have great numbers with first time starters, but he has this one humming in the AM, running a pair of sub 1:00 five furlong works in preparation for this start. There’s some turf influences in this pedigree on the dam side, but pairing the dam with Tapit may prove to be a wise move. Brad Cox sends out Dr. Saikali (#7) for Robert LaPenta and Madaket Stables. After some solid works at Turfway, Cox brought him over here to work at the end of September. He ran a solid ½ mile and appears ready to roll. One of the dam’s other three runners to race was a winner on debut.

Race 8, The $250K Indian Summer Stakes Presented by Keeneland Select:

Two year olds will dash 5 ½ furlongs in this race. While keeping tabs on the two runners that are cross-entered in other races, note that Chasing LIberty (#2) was scratched out of his race in New York and should be running in this race. Meanwhile, one of three fillies that entered this race, Dreamaway (#5), shipped to California and ran for Wesley Ward in the Speakeasy Stakes on Saturday. That defection will allow Fiddling Felix (#13) to compete in this race should his connections be inclined to do so. I like Chasing Liberty in this spot. He was forced to check around the ⅜ pole and was shuffled to the back of the field in the Juvenile Sprint at Kentucky Downs. He came with a wide bid and was bumped by  a rival. He showed a strong burst of energy, but the horse who crossed the wire first came out and impeded him in the final 1/16 of a mile. He finished second by a slim margin, but his number was put up via disqualification. That was a big time effort from a horse that did break his maiden at this distance at Ellis on debut. I think he’ll get the right set up to run them down late. I’ll use the two remaining Wesley Ward runners on the B line. I didn’t like the effort from Pharoah’s Dynasty (#6) in that same race. She was sitting midpack before folding up. Perhaps the distance and the course were not to his liking. He is a full brother to the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner, Four Wheel Drive. He was also trained by Ward. If there’s any resemblance to his brother, this is the time to show it. Floodlites (#12) is the longer priced option, starting off at 20-1 on the morning line. I suspect that number will come back to Earth, especially with the shortest priced Ward running defecting from this race. City of Light has been a useful turf sprint sire so far, winning with 16% of his runners in those kinds of races. He took a  big step forward on the grass at Kentucky Downs when breaking his maiden on the late day of August. I think he can take another step forward for a barn that loves to win races on their home turf. 

Race 9, The Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes:

Last year’s winner of this race, Idiomatic (#1), is back to defend her crown. She clearly has the advantage from a class and pace perspective in this race. Speed has been a dangerous weapon on this course and this talented mare has plenty of it. She didn’t break tremendously well in the Odgen Phipps, which allowed Randomized to set the fractions and take it to her. She was ridden for the lead in the Molly Pitcher, but she was under a tight hold that day which seemed to neutralize her best weapon, which allowed Irad Ortiz to make an aggressive bid with Soul of an Angel, who gave her all she could handle in a thrilling stretch duel. Geroux was not going to let Randomized take the lead in the Personal Ensign last month and both horses were ridden aggressively. She put away her rival but was unable to hold off Raging Sea in the late stages of that Grade 1 contest. She makes a ton of sense in this race and should be able to hold her inside position if she breaks well. She has had some quirks coming out the gate though, which could open the door for someone else to take it to her early. She’s going to be on the A line for me, but at this point in her career, I can’t rubber stamp an automatic victory. I’ll make Candied (#2) the top pick in this spot for Todd Pletcher and Luis Saez. She ran the best race of her career when she was kept closer to the front end in the Lady’s Secret at Monmouth three starts ago. She couldn’t keep pace with Thorpedo Anna two back and was a very game second in the Alabama in her most recent start when she tried to go over the top with a six wide surge. She ran well when winning the Alcibiades here in 2023. She made her 2024 debut in the Ashland where she likely needed that race and didn’t have the best trip either. Her biggest career win came with Saez aboard, so I’m welcoming his return in this spot. 

Race 10, The Grade 2 Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes:

The nightcap drew an overflow field of 15 runners looking to punch their ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf next month at Del Mar. I like Giacoso (#4) a lot in this race for Keith Desormeaux. He was excellent when demolishing a maiden special weight field at Ellis two starts ago. He was well in front of Minaret Station (#5) that day and that one came back to win in a maiden special weight race in Indiana last time out. Desormeaux rolled the dice and tried the dirt in the Grade 3 Iroquois, where he finished 3rd, beaten seven lengths behind a pair of very nice colts. That experiment was worth a shot, but I think turf is where he is going to be at his best. The better turf horses that are based in New York stayed home, so I think he’s well-positioned to get the job done with this group. The backup option for me here would be Cavallo Bay (#6) for Charles Appleby. He ran okay in the With Anticipation Stakes, finishing third that day when making his stateside debut. He came here off two straight wins in Great Britain and the fact that Zulu Kingdom came back to win the Pilgrim last week, validates some of the form from that race. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 6/10 (60%), $5.09 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.