Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Thursday, 4/10/25 – By Eric Solomon

This eight day Marathon of consecutive racing days at Keeneland rolls on with a nine race Thursday afternoon card. As can be expected, there are some nice allowance races highlighting this prorgam. First post today is set for 1:00 (EDT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The next round of two year old maiden special weight races features eight runners, two of which were sired by Hootenanny. Hootenanny has had 24 runners debut in a dirt sprint over the last five years, and seven of them have been winners (29%). 6 of 16 (37.5%) from that sample were trained by Wesley Ward. His filly, Ashkenazi (#3) is taking on the boys in this race and she looked loaded. Her full brother was a winner on debut at Turfway. Rosario and Ward teamed up with Pinky Finger on Monday, who was the easiest of debut winners. I’d imagine he’s hoping for the same. The logical backup is the other Ward runner, Double Talker (#7). David Flores has been named to ride, which is significant, since he has not ridden yet in 2025. His works are solid, but not quite as flashy as his stablemate’s. 

Race 2:

$20K N2L claimers will go 6 ½ furlongs here. I’ll try Metalhead (#10) on top in this race. He was claimed for $15K by Thomas Molloy at Turfway a few weeks ago when finishing second for the second straight race with $15K-$10K N2L claimers there. He ran well at this same distance on the Tapeta and his dirt efforts on dry tracks earlier in his career were sharp. This barn has a small sample size to work with, but they’ve won with 2 of their 6 runners first off the claim, boasting a solid $4.19 ROI. I think he’s a horse that can improve for new connections and a surface switch. No No Joe (#9) is the lukewarm morning line favorite in this race after a strong effort at the Fair Grounds when getting a fast dirt track for the first time in his career. He put up a decent figure last spring when catching a sloppy course here in N2L allowance company. He’s another horse that is making the first start off the claim for a smaller stable. Horses that last raced at the Fair Grounds have won 4 of the 17 dirt races in the first two days at this meet, so the New Orleans invaders are certainly holding their own in the early stages of this stand. The wildcard in this race is Jimmy the Hat (#6) making his first start in 16 months for Wayne Catalano. He ended his two year old season with a pair of strong efforts at Turfway back in December of 2023. He was a game second in a starter allowance race there before an injury forced him to miss his entire three year old season. He’s been gelded since his last start and he makes his first start as a four year old. Catalano has decent numbers off the layoff and while this is a drop in class on paper, his win came against $15K0$10K maiden claimers two starts ago. If he’s a little bigger and faster than he was before going to the sidelines, he could definitely be in the mix. I definitely want to see how he looks in the paddock and watch him warming up, but he feels like a horse that would make sense to use as a backup in this one. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in a $30K starter allowance race. We saw this condition yesterday for the boys, and this has the same qualifier in that all eight runners in this race have not won three races. I’m not sold on the favorite, Beelieve Her (#6) in this race. She’s coming off a big time speed figure when winning a beaten $20K claiming field. She’s not the most consistent runner and that was a big effort in her first start off a layoff. She’s moving up in class and her local work wasn’t very inspiring. I’m fearing a bounce for this filly. Instead, I’ll take Carolina Candy (#8) on top. She also has some hiccups in her running lines, but her two recent duds came in the slop and on the turf in stakes company. She ran well to be second on this oval at a price against better foes last spring. She ran well enough to win in her return, but I see room to improve in her second try back. Sombra Dorada (#4) is another one to consider using in this race. She’s getting back on the dirt after a pair of synthetic races at Turfway. Both of her wins are on the natural stuff. Jordan Blair had a winner here on Monday and he’s looking to add on another here. 

Race 4:

The first of two races scheduled for the grass today is a maiden special weight for three year olds and up, sprinting 5 ½ furlongs. The rail is set at 30 feet, which means that there are a maximum of ten starters in this race, assuming it stays on the grass. I like a few of the three year olds in this race, making Insubordination (#9) the top pick. George Weaver has really found a niche with turf sprinters, winning with 24% of those runners since the start of 2024. His horses always seem to be well-prepared when coming off the layoff. This one started twice in longer races at the Spa over the summer before going to the sidelines. The sire, Bungle Inthejungle is an Irish bred that is not well known in the states. He’s had 5 winners from 26 starters, but it is worth noting that 4 of those 5 winners came in turf sprints. The dam was more effective at longer distances, but I think with some development over the winter, he can compete at this distance and at this level. Bright Skittle (#6) is another one making his first start as a three year old today. I thought his third place finish here at the end of the spring meet was pretty impressive. He made up a lot of ground despite a few spots of trouble. That effort was good enough for him to be favored in the Royal Palm Juvenile Stakes at Gulfstream, where he rallied late to get third once again; He stretched out to a mile early in the two year old season at Ellis in July and he was a decent 4th as the beaten favorite once again. Blinkers go on for his first start of the year today. He’s another one that should be able to move forward with some added development while on the sidelines. Bill Mott takes over for Rusty Arnold and he has good numbers with his new acquisitions. Beer Run (#10) is a five year old, taking on many younger horses. He accumulates big speed figures, but often comes up short. I was planning on using him underneath, but I was debating about using him as a backup in the multi-race wagers. At the end of the day, there’s still some uncertainty with the three year olds on the A line for me. While I like both of them, if they’re not up to the task today, he’d clearly be the one to use. It feels like insurance that would be wisely spent, especially if you have some stronger opinions in some of the other legs. 

Race 5:

$40K N2L claimers will go 1 1/16 miles on the main track here. I’m interested in Indy Charges On (#1) in this race, making his first start on the dirt and his first start against winners. He was not a factor in a dull debut in maiden special weight company at Turfway, but he was very sharp in his second start when beating $15K-$10K maiden claimers. The runner-up was dead game in that race, and they were over 11 lengths better than the others that day. He has a nice workout over this course and the fact that Luis Saez is picking up the mount feels meaningful. When he rides for Christopher Davis, they have won with 10 of 32 starters (32%). They are 4-8 (50%) together when teaming up at Keeneland. While Sophie Doyle is riding a shorter priced runner that I don’t care for in this spot, I suspect naming Saez to ride was a choice. It’s hard to guess which version of Smart Mo (#7) is going to show up in this race. At his best, he has a pair of 94 Beyer Speed Figures in one mile races on the dirt at Santa Anita. His last four starts have been lacking though, as he’s finished off the board each time, beaten a combined total of 47 ½ lengths. He has been working well though, perhaps signifying that he could be ready to run back to one of his better efforts, while also getting some class relief. Golden Ice (#11) is going to need to work out a trip from post 11, and that has not been an easy task early on in this meet. However, he does fit very well with this group after two strong efforts at the Fair Grounds for Tom Amoss and Maggi Moss. After beating a dull group of $15K maiden claimers, he showed that he can hang with better company in his last two tries. Both of those races were in smaller fields though, so the bad post with the larger field is not a great combination. However, there is reason to believe he’s good enough to stick around at this level.

Race 6: 

The Late Pick-4 begins with a $50K starter allowance race for three year olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. Like many races at this level, horses must also be eligible to run in a N1X allowance race to participate in this one. I like Rousette (#7) as a win candidate in this race. He had two very nice races in the fall at Churchill. He was claimed for $30K by Denis Roberson, who has managed him well in three starts. He was overmatched two back when facing a tougher group in a 10 furlong N1X allowance race at Turfway. However, he came back and scored in starter allowance company there in his most recent start. He ran very well on this course last spring, losing in a photo in a $50K maiden claiming race. He comes back to Lexington as a stronger horse and I think his tactical speed and versatility makes him a player with this group today. Redemption Time (#3) feels like the logical threat to the top pick in this one. Kent Sweezy had a few winners here in the fall as he’s done a better job of spotting the horses that he is bringing to town. His form has a been a little up and down, which isn’t terribly uncommon at this level. Irad Ortiz taking the mount is a plus though. On deeper tickets, Sweettalkingbourbon (#11) is another Cherie DeVaux runner that has a chance, but was done no favors by the post position draw. This Twirling Candy gelding was a distant second to Hall of Fame at this distance last year on the dirt at the Fair Grounds. He ran poorly in his next start in the slop and then was sidelined from February 2024 to January 2025. He broke his maiden in a $30K-$20K maiden claimer at Turfway and then improved from a figure standpoint when stretching out to a mile and facing a $30K starter allowance group. I like him getting back on the dirt, and this is his third start off the layoff, so I do think there is a chance that he hits a new ceiling today. I think the post is going to make life a little difficult though. 12-1 on the morning line feels a little high, but if we can get that number, I’d be more willing to take a bigger swing. 

Race 7: 

Older fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles in this N1X allowance race. I think Todd Pletcher’s Into Amore (#6) is going to break through and clear this condition today. She is foaled by the 2015 Alabama winner, Embellish the Lace. Her other two runners to make it to the track have been useful horses. Her full sister just cleared this level in a sprint at Turfway in January. She wants to be forward and put herself into the race. She has been clearly second best in her last two starts at this level at Tampa and Gulfstream. The third place finisher from the Gulfstream race came back to clear in the N1X condition in her last start. Her speed figures are getting a little better each time and I think this is a good spot to put it all together while facing some runners that might not have the highest of ceilings at this point. I’ll backup with Prides Crossing (#3) for Chad Brown. Brown was the former trainer of both Save Time (#4) and Sudden Switch (#5), the latter of which is the morning line favorite. I don’t love that he’s not training either in spite of the fact they are both handled by capable trainers. He tried Prides Crossing on the turf at Tampa last out and she was okay,finishing 5th, beaten three lengths. She’s making her third start off the layoff while trying to get back to her debut form, which was very good. Cristian Torres is leading the jockey standings at Oaklawn, and while he struggled in Kentucky this year, he was aboard for her win and he’s in town to ride for Brown. This is one of those things that could be good for future business, so Torres might have an extra edge here. 

Race 8:

The featured race this afternoon is a N2X allowance for fillies and mares, going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf course. This is a tricky race because there isn’t a ton of early speed signed on and some of the better horses like to run on from the back of the pack. Foxxy Cleopatra (#4)was really good in her only turf start last year at the Fair Grounds. That effort was good enough to send her to the Limehouse Stakes this time last year. However, that race was taken off the turf and run over a sloppy main track, which was not her cup of tea. She’s been away since that race and she’s geared up for her first start as a four year old for Larry Rivelli. He has very good numbers with turf sprinters and decent numbers with runners coming off the layoff. This is going to be a much tougher field that she’s seen before, but I do think her early foot is a weapon that gives her an advantage over her more seasoned rivals in this spot. Ultimate Ready (#1) is unbeaten in two starts and she looked really good coming from off the pace to win at five furlongs at Gulfstream in her last start where she cleared the N1X condition. It isn’t easy to make up that much ground at that distance on that course, so I do upgrade that effort from her. She’s making her second start off a lengthy layoff and is putting her unbeaten record on the line. She showed at six furlongs on debut that she can be more tactical and I don’t think there’s a chance in hell that they’re going to run a 20:3 opening quarter or a sub 44 half mile in this spot. Flavien Prat will be in the irons for Bill Mott in place of the injured Junior Alvarado. Graham Motion won the first turf race of the meet and he’ll look to keep it rolling with Golden Hostess (#6), who certainly made a positive impression on this course in the fall. She lost in a three horse photo at this level and then came back to be second in a small stakes race at Aqueduct. She wanted no part of the two turn mile at Gulfstream in her last start though. She was given almost four months off and she returns in a spot where she’ll be competitive, but she does run the risk of being pace compromised. I’d demand a slightly higher price than her 3-1 morning line if I were looking to play her to win.

Race 9:

The Thursday nightcap is a $50K maiden claiming race for three year olds and up, sprinting seven furlongs. Army Hero (#4) is the pick for me, with Frankie Dettori in the irons. I like the cutback in distance from the two turn mile on the Tapeta to the one turn seven furlong trip on the dirt here. He’s been competitive at this level in Kentucky and I think he’ll have the stamina edge in that final furlong. His debut came against a much more talented group here last fall, but he was better in his next start when going the one turn mile at Churchill. Romantic Lead (#14) needs two defections to compete, but he could be dangerous if he gets to run. He ran well in a two turn, off the turf maiden special weight at Delaware on debut. He went to the sidelines after struggling on the turf at that level in his last start. Jimmy Toner is not great off the layoff, but I do like the spot for him while he’s dropping in class. Geno’s Myth (#10) would be the other backup for me in this race. He’s probably better suited for underneath, because I don’t think Michael Puhich is sure what this Uncle Mo gelding is going to do best. I thought he ran a credible race at this distance after eight months away this fall when facing $100K maiden claimers at Churchill. He ran twice in maiden special weight company at Turfway during their winter meet, but he’s been off for about 10 weeks now. I think he could be in the mix with this group. 

Meet Statistics, Top Pick Winners Through 4-7-25: 

7/20 (35.0%), $41.76 – $2.09 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.