Keeneland: Looking at the Spring Meet through Data

After delving into horse racing over the past few years, I’ve noticed that I don’t really think about time through the lens of seasons anymore. Instead I think about things by when tracks open and close, and major race days. I spent a good deal of “Dubai World Cup / Florida Derby weekend” prepping what comes below for “Opening Week at Keeneland” (aka this week).

In any case, I thought it might be useful to take a look at some Keeneland content in preparation of the spring meet, which might offer some data points that could be helpful in forming opinions on races over the next three weeks.

I’ve pulled together some mostly high level stats around race types, trainers and jockeys primarily by course, and course configuration. The primary way we’ve looked at races for the purposes of the post are splits between dirt and turf, and those races run around one turn, and two turns.

Overview

Keeneland runs around 300 races each year. The fields are typically pretty hefty and the average win odds have been climbing. Note that during 2015, Keeneland hosted the Breeder’s Cup, so there are a few more races during that year.

Keeneland switched from and all weather surface to dirt in 2014. Overall, the vast majority of races are run on the dirt but there has been a slight up-tick in turf racing in the past few years.

And to reiterate quickly, I have denoted here the number of turns that the races are. One turn races are those run around only one turn of the track. Two turns, well, you get it.

As a potential guideline, I thought it might be interesting to look at payouts by race type to see where we might be able to reach for some prices, and where we might have to eat some more chalk:

• There is some potential to reach for prices in stakes races, as is evidenced by the nice average payouts for stakes races in 2018.
• Maiden races offer the second highest opportunities for prices, on average.
• Interestingly, AOC and Allowance races offered the lowest payouts, on average

Notes and Definitions

Please note – through the rest of the article, we will examine racing through the using a some of the following definitions. Here they are for reference:

The rationale for odds adjusted win percentage is to reduce the impact that longshots (horses that are unsuited, potentially for a race) have on losing from any given perspective (be it post position, weight, or anything else that is included below).

The way to think about impact values:

Numbers less than one mean that horses win less than the public expects, and numbers greater than one mean that horses win more than the public expects them to. The takeaway being numbers higher than one might represent pockets of opportunity or overlays. It’s another take on any given play’s return on investment

Trainers

To start, we can take a look at stats since 2017, sorted by expected win percentage (calculated using the odds that the horse broke from the gate at), and filtered for trainers with more than 50 mounts.

• Chad Brown tops the list and interestingly, he boasts an impact value of > 1 which suggests that he wins more than the odds of his horses suggest that he should. However, consistently playing Chad Brow would yield a payout of $0.61 for each dollar wagered. The takeaway is only play Chad Brown when he wins 😉
• It appears that handicappers appropriately assess the Wesley Ward runners, as his impact value is almost exactly 1. Much like Chad though, the return for every dollar invested is only $0.51.
• On the other side of this, it is interesting to note that Bill Mott wins only 2.7% of the time from 74 starters with an impact value close to zero since the odds his horses go off at suggest he should win at a 17% clip. The return here of only $0.07 for every dollar suggests an almost complete avoid for me.
• Similar to Mott, are Graham Motion (at 6.7% win, .49 impact value), and Ken McPeek (7.1% winners from 169 runners and a .54 impact value).
• On the positive side, Eddie Kenneally and Ben Colebrook each boast impact values of greater than 1, and returns on a dollar invested of over a dollar, suggesting you could almost blindly play them and expect to make money $$$.

Trainers, one turn on dirt

If the above was a too high level view for you, look no further. We’ve broken out trainers even further. Here, we show trainers for one turn races on dirt. Instead of looking for trainers with more than 50 mounts like we did above, we have only filtered for trainers with more than 30 mounts.

• Wesley Ward wins more than the odds suggest his horses should. However, there is is still a negative return on a dollar investment.
• Wayne Rice is 0 for 31 in one turn dirt races
• George Arnold has a slightly positive return on investment and an impact value of greater than one. Potential to upgrade in some cases.
• Ben Colebrook once again has a pretty substantial impact value, and a positive return on a dollar invested if you were to blindly bet on every one of his one turn dirt runners. Not bad…
• Michael Tomlinson is 7 for 31, has an impact value that is sky high at > 2.2 and has a very high return on a dollar invested. Could push me to bet some of his higher priced runners.

Trainers, two turns on dirt

I was toying with my filters to see how many mounts to include. I landed on 10 mounts since 2017 so I could highlight the following stat.

• Bill Mott: 0 for 14 in two turn dirt races. Really interesting food for thought in my opinion. Wonder how that compares to Gulfstream, two turn dirt races…
• Steve Asmussen is 2 for 30, with an impact value of 0.36.
• Eddie Kenneally pops up again. 5 for 18 with an eye-popping $2.43 return on a dollar investment
• Overall, there probably isn’t as much to takeaway from this grouping

Trainers, one turn, turf

For what it’s worth, we’ll look at one turn on the turf. The sample size is pretty small, and I went down to 5 mounts as the minimum. There are a few interesting tidbits.

• Wesley Ward seems to over perform relative to the stats on dirt. Still can’t make a profit betting him blindly.
• Mark Casse is 3 for 9 with a big return on a dollar. His horses might be worth a second look if they show up one turn on the turf.
• Ben Colebrook here breaks from what we’ve seen before. Unsuccessful since 2017, as he is 0 for 11.

Trainers, two turns, turf

I bumped the filter up to more than 10 mounts here. But mainly for the top statistic below:

• Kiaran McLaughlin is 6 for 12 in two turn dirt races. Big return of almost $2 for every dollar invested.
• Mike Maker gets a positive stat as well. Positive return on a pretty significant number of runners.
• Another substantial stat. Wesley Ward is 0 for 28 around two turns on the dirt.

Jockeys

Jockeys, one turn on dirt

Similarly to trainers, we are taking a look at jockeys since 2017 and how they’ve fared. Here we’ve filtered for jockeys with more than twenty mounts.

• Unreal statistic is the Joel Rosario is 15 for 38 with a huge impact value and solid return on a dollar. Might have to blindly bet this guy, in one turn races on the dirt.
• The top five here all have positive return on investment values. TAke your pick…
• Looking toward the bottom, I think it’s interesting to see some highly negative return on investment numbers from Javier Castellano, Jose Ortiz and Shaun Bridgmohan. Could be a good idea to fade these guys when they aren’t on a super strong favorite (or always in SB’s case)

Jockeys, two turns, dirt

Couple of interesting notes here. Again filtered for more than 20 mounts.

• Contrary to one turn on dirt, Javier Castellano has a big return on a dollar investment ($1.36 for a dollar) and an impact value of 1.42 suggesting he wins more than he is expected (by the public) to.
• Also contrary to one turn on dirt, Joel Rosario is at the bottom of the chart here, with an unprofitable return on a dollar investment even while winning almost 18% of the time.

Jockeys, one turn, turf

In the interest of saving space, I’ll just throw out a few stats for this one, as the sample size is very small.

• Joel Rosario, 4 for 9, impact value of 2.53 and $2.80 for ever dollar invested.
• Jose Ortiz, 1 for 15
• Florent Geroux, 1 for 19
• Brian Hernandez, Jr., 0 for 16

Jockeys, two turns, turf

For more than 20 mounts, here is the chart and some accompanying stats.

• Javier again toward the top winning over 30% of two turn turf mounts, with solid return on investment.
• Joel Rosario and Jose Ortiz end up pretty far down the list here. That, though, is likely because they ride pretty heavily backed horses and only win around 15-20% of the time (don’t get me wrong, not bad, if you’re not trying to turn a dollar into anything other than smoke).

Conclusion

Hopefully this should be enough to get you started on Keeneland! Look forward to any comments / suggestions.

Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@john_camardo), or through the blog if you have any questions