PHOTO: Hodges Photography
HOW HE GOT HERE
Midnight Bourbon had a four race two year old campaign where he ran four times in a row at the one mile distance. He debuted at Ellis, and it looked like he needed that start from a fitness perspective. He improved significantly in his second career start to break his maiden by open lengths. That effort was good enough for Asmussen to wheel him back two weeks later and run in the Grade 3 Iroquois on the Kentucky Derby undercard. He sat just off a fast pace there, moved early and made the lead, before getting run down by Sittin On Go. He traveled to New York to face the highly touted Jackie’s Warrior in the Grade 1 Champagne, where he proved to be no match for him or Reinvestment Risk, finishing 3rd, beaten 14 and ¼ lengths that day.
Asmussen gave him a few months off before putting him on the Louisiana path to Louisville, running in all three Derby Points races at the Fair Grounds. He made his three year old debut in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes, where he also tried a full two turn race for the first time. He drew the rail, and Joe Talamo used his early speed to put him on the lead, setting up an ideal trip. He was allowed to set moderate fractions that day and held on for the length of the long stretch at the Fair Grounds, finishing front of both Proxy and Mandaloun, who never looked like they were going to get there.
In February, he drew a mid-pack post for the Risen Star, and had a little more pace pressure that day when longshot, Rightandjust, cleared the field early on from his outside post. Talamo gave him a great ride, tipping out under the wire for the first time, forcing favored Mandaloun to go three wide on the first turn. However, chasing the early tempo may have taken a little more out of him, as he fought on, but faded to 3rd beaten 1 and ¾ lengths that day.
His final prep for the Kentucky Derby came in the Louisiana Derby, where again, he briefly made the front before conceding the lead to eventual winner Hot Rod Charlie. He was pretty much second place the whole race, battling but not really gaining on the winner. He finished second, beaten two lengths, and narrowly holding off O Besos, who was flying along the rail late to get up for third.
HOW HE FITS HERE
From a speed figure standpoint, he is right there with most of the contenders, so as a horse that figures to go off in the 15-1 to 20-1 range, he’ll offer more value than some of the other horses in that group. He is bred to get longer distances being sired by Tiznow out of a Malibu Moon mare and he has definitely been better since going two turns. My concern is where he’ll fit from a pace perspective, as several other horses have a similar running style. By my count, at least six others; Medina Spirit, Rock Your World, Concert Tour, Caddo River, Soup and Sandwich, and Highly Motivated, want to be in the same early position as him, on or just off the lead. He picks up the services of Mike Smith, who is not shy about being offensively minded on a speed horse in a race where there’s other early speed horses to contend with (Think about his rides in the Travers with either Arrogate or West Coast).
HOW IT FIGURES TO GO HERE
I believe the break and the first quarter mile are going to tell the story of this year’s Kentucky Derby. I think there more pace signed on than in recent runnings, which could set this race up for a horse that is in the second half of the field in the early stages. When you have a minimum of seven speed horses in a race, the odds of six jockeys sittings back and not going for the lead are pretty slim. The odds of all seven horses getting away cleanly in a 20 horse race are also slim. All of that being said, unless Midnight Bourbon gets a perfect trip or takes a big step forward, I don’t see him winding up wearing the Blanket of Roses when the day is done. I do think with the right trip, he’ll be one of the last front runners to be passed, so hitting the board is not out of the question.
OVERALL CHANCE
To me, Midnight Bourbon is a horse I like going forward, but he’s one that I’ll be siding against in multi-race wagers and to win (unless his odds float up in the crazy high range 30-1+, and then he is probably worth a small investment). He is a horse that makes sense using underneath in the vertical exotics tickets because of his toughness and willingness to keep fighting through the stretch.
