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I Was Wrong About the Points System
Edition No. 16 · Saturday, April 25, 2026 · 7 Days to Post
📊 I Was Wrong About the Points System
For the better part of a decade, I’ve been one of the voices arguing that the Kentucky Derby points system — which replaced the old graded-stakes-earnings qualification method in 2013 — made the race more formful. The logic felt airtight: the old system let sprinters earn their way into the Derby through graded stakes money alone, those horses set suicidal paces they couldn’t sustain, and the chaos that followed produced longshot winners. Remove the sprinters, get honest paces, and the best horse wins more often.
It’s a clean narrative. And it’s wrong — or at least, there’s nothing in the data to properly support it.
This week, DRF’s David Aragona and Dave Grening published an excellent analysis on their Derby Watch series showing that Kentucky Derby paces in the points era have not been any slower than in the years before it. In fact, they’ve been slightly faster on average. This is a point our friend Chris Larmey has also made on this network. The idea that the points system produced slower, more manageable paces simply doesn’t hold up against the data.
That got me thinking: even if the paces haven’t slowed, has the Derby become more formful? The surface-level numbers say yes. Since 2013, the betting favorite has won 50% of the time, compared to 33% in the 12 years before the points system. Longshot winners (20-1 or higher) have been cut nearly in half — from 33% to 17%. On its face, the Derby looks like a different, more predictable race.
So I went looking for the explanation. My first instinct was the sprinter theory: surely the points system filtered out the one-dimensional speed horses who used to set unsustainable fractions and blow up the race. I pulled data on every pace leader from the pre-points era — Songandaprayer (2001), Spanish Chestnut (2005), Keyed Entry (2006), Recapturetheglory (2008), Join in the Dance (2009) — and checked their resumes.
Every single one of them was a legitimate route horse. Songandaprayer had won the Fountain of Youth at a mile and a sixteenth and finished second in the Blue Grass. Spanish Chestnut won the San Rafael at a mile. Keyed Entry ran third in the Wood Memorial. These weren’t sprinters who wandered into the Derby — they were two-turn horses who simply went too fast on the day.
With the sprinter theory debunked, I ran the numbers through a basic statistical significance test. And here’s where the story ends with a thud rather than a bang: the difference between 4 favorite winners in 12 races and 6 favorite winners in 12 races is not statistically significant. The probability of seeing 6 or more favorite winners in 12 races, even if the true rate is only 33%, is about 18%. That’s well within the range of normal randomness.
The entire “formfulness” finding comes down to two extra races in a 12-race sample. Two. That’s it.
Now, it’s possible there is a real effect and the sample is just too small to prove it. We’d need roughly 100 Derbys under each system to draw a reliable conclusion, and we’re not going to get that. It’s also possible that the points era coincided with a run of genuinely superior horses — American Pharoah, Justify, Nyquist, California Chrome — who would have won under any system. We can’t separate the system from the horses who ran in it.
But the honest conclusion, the one I should have reached years ago, is this: I don’t have the evidence to say the points system made the Kentucky Derby more formful. The paces haven’t changed. The sprinter theory doesn’t hold. And the favorite win rate is within the range of what randomness can explain.
Sometimes the most interesting finding is that there’s no finding at all.
Post positions are drawn today. The real handicapping starts now.
🔄 Chip Honcho Out, Litmus Test In
Steve Asmussen has withdrawn Chip Honcho from Kentucky Derby consideration. That opens the door for Bob Baffert’s Litmus Test, who was 21st on the points list and worked sharply from the gate in blinkers on Thursday at Churchill — five furlongs in :59.36 with a strong gallop out.
This matters for the pace. Chip Honcho was one of only two confirmed early speed horses in the field alongside Six Speed. Without him, the Derby just got even more pace-thin. Six Speed might be the only horse who absolutely wants the lead.
Litmus Test adds blinkers back after racing without them in the Arkansas Derby, where he finished a distant seventh. He’s a Baffert horse with gate speed — a different profile than Chip Honcho but potentially a pace factor depending on post draw.
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📌 Post Draw TODAY · ~2:15 PM ET
The main event of the day. Twenty horses, twenty gates. The Kentucky Derby and Oaks post position draw takes place between races 3 and 4 on Opening Day at Churchill Downs.
Where to watch: FanDuel TV, WAVE-3 (Louisville), or stream free at KentuckyDerby.com.
We’ll have the full draw, the morning line, and instant analysis across all ITM platforms as soon as it drops. Tomorrow’s D2D will be a full post draw breakdown.
👉 Watch our Churchill Opening Day preview on the ITM YouTube channel
🇯🇵 Danon Bourbon Ran a 97
Yesterday’s D2D led with an exclusive from our Danon Bourbon Monster Pod with Alex Henry. Using proprietary Netkeiba speed figure conversions, Alex calculated that Danon Bourbon ran a 97 on the Beyer-equivalent scale in the Fukuryu Stakes — the fastest running of that race in 20 years, on a muddy track. T O Password ran an 83 from the same race and finished fifth in the 2024 Derby.
He might get beat. But it won’t be the distance that beats him.
👉 Danon Bourbon Monster Pod with Alex Henry
👉 Wonder Dean + Six Speed with Michael Adolphson
📣 The Trainers Want to Move the Preakness
“I’m all for moving it. The health and the welfare of the horse comes first over tradition.” — Brad Cox
“I would predict it is gonna change, certainly before my career is over.” — Chad Brown
“Tradition is tradition, but we live in a different world.” — Mark Glatt
This comes days after CDI acquired the Preakness IP for $85 million. Now that one company owns two of the three legs, the schedule might actually be moveable.
🎧 PTF on the Equibase Inside Track
Ben Kudla and PTF sit down for a horse-by-horse GPS data analysis of the Derby field on the latest Inside Track podcast from Equibase. Which contenders stand out by the stride numbers?
👉 Watch on the Equibase YouTube channel
🎙️ New Monster Pods
Two more Monster Pods dropped covering the latest field changes:
👉 Intrepido with Frank Scatoni — Frank isn’t sold on the Santa Anita Derby, and Mullins’ own quotes suggest this is more owner-driven than trainer-driven. But this is a Grade 1-winning two-year-old with tactical speed. Worth 10 minutes.
👉 Chip Honcho with Kevin Kilroy — We recorded this before the scratch was announced, but Kilroy’s breakdown of Asmussen’s Derby history and what Chip Honcho’s speed profile meant for the pace is still a great listen.
📄 Free Derby Contender Profiles — 19 Live
Nineteen free written profiles — nearly the full field:
👉 Renegade · Commandment · Further Ado · The Puma · Chief Wallabee · So Happy · Silent Tactic · Emerging Market · Fulleffort · Potente · Incredibolt · Albus · Pavlovian · Chip Honcho · Wonder Dean · Six Speed · Danon Bourbon · Intrepido · Right to Party
📣 See PTF and JK Live This Week
Wednesday, April 29 — FOUR DAYS · 6:30–9:00 PM
Final Answers: The ITM Oaks & Derby Handicapping Event
The Manchester Hotel · Lexington, KY
Premium open bar, buffet, Friday & Saturday PPs included. $155. Get yours here.
Thursday, April 30 · 5:30 PM
Derby Inquiries with PTF and JK
The Galt House Lobby · Louisville, KY — Free and open to the public.
📋 ICYMI
👉 Yesterday’s D2D: “What Speed Figure Did Danon Bourbon Run on the Beyer Scale?”
👉 Is Todd Pletcher Actually Bad in the Kentucky Derby? (ITM Original)
👉 Preakness Future Wager is live
👉 Derby OddsWatch
👉 Free Bris Derby PPs (PDF)
❓ Today’s Open Question
Post draw day. Which horse do you most want to see draw well — and which horse can you see getting hurt by a bad gate?
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📚 Previous Editions
Edition 15 · April 24, 2026 — What Speed Figure Did Danon Bourbon Run on the Beyer Scale?
Edition 14 · April 23, 2026 — Bet the Preakness Before the Derby
Edition 13 · April 22, 2026 — One Company, Two Jewels
