Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #2 Preview – By Eric DeCoster

#7 – Catching Freedom (50/1 ML): Another sharp maiden winner from the Cox barn. This son of Constitution had the trip from hell in allowance company last out behind Parchment Party and will be primed for a much better performance next out, whether that be allowance or stakes company.

#8 – Copper Tax (50/1 ML): A winner of five straight in the Mid-Atlantic, this colt’s best effort did come at a two-turn mile at the stakes level. His Beyers (two career high 81’s in last two starts) would be competitive with many of the 2-year-olds running in graded stakes over the next few weekends. 

#9 – Dancing Groom (99/1 ML): Even if he was beaten 10 lengths, Dancing Groom still finished 3rd in the Champagne S. [G1] and beat Fierceness in the process. Trainer Antonio Sano is plenty capable of keeping horses in form up to the big races. 

#10 – Domestic Product (80/1 ML): The only horse in the pool with a win at 9 furlongs. Winning at that long of a distance has generally been a good omen for later making the Derby, but not necessarily winning. Nevertheless, one less question to answer here. 

#11 – Dornoch (30/1 ML): Word has always been strong with this full brother to 2023 Derby hero, Mage. He’s gotten better with every bit of added ground and ran well with winners when 2nd in the Sapling S. (Listed). 

#12 – Drum Roll Please (30/1 ML): Broke his maiden at a mile last out after two losses in salty maidens. He was 2nd behind Locked two back and came out of the same race Dornoch debuted in as well. Profiles somewhat similarly to another New York-based Cox trainee from last prep season, Slip Mahoney. 

#13 – Fierceness (15/1 ML): A tough read for me. The Juvenile champ was brilliant in his Breeders’ Cup win. However, we’re projecting who will win a 10 furlong race months from this week. Is it realistic to think Fierceness can be that horse? From both a pedigree and physical standpoint I hesitate to think he will be, yet there clearly is endless talent here. You’re going to get a kind price on this horse in every Future Wager pool, and if he does somehow keep improving with time and distance then it will be of great benefit to play him now instead of Derby day 2024. 

#14 – Glengarry (80/1 ML): All hail my fellow Iowa-bred. This colt was mighty impressive in two wins at Prairie Meadows and then took the show on the road for a stakes win at Keeneland. He’s very unproven without a run beyond 6 furlongs, but the talent is there. Hard to gauge his pedigree too, as there isn’t much on the dam side and his sire is first-crop sire, Maximus Mischief. I believed Maximus Mischief had all the intangibles to be one of Into Mischief’s best sons over a route of ground before his career ended prematurely, but of course there’s no telling that the same will be the same for his progeny. 

#15 – Informed Patriot (80/1 ML): Another Steve Asmussen trainee, this colt struggled home after sitting a great trip in the Street Sense S. [G3] at Churchill Downs. He’s a full-brother to Spun to Run, who did his best work at the flat mile. 

#16 – Kitty Hawk (99/1 ML): He tried short turf, long turf, and short dirt before figuring out he wanted to go two-turns on the main track. His maiden win was sharp and he’s bred to like a class distance, but has not visually impressed. 

#17 – Knightsbridge (50/1 ML): My guess is that this half-brother to Speaker’s Corner will be the biggest underlay of this pool. His maiden win was so sharp over 7/8ths at Churchill for Bill Mott, but he evoked many similarities to his older brother, who was a pure long sprinter/miler during his career. I don’t project he’s a 10-furlong horse based on that run. 

#18 – Liberal Arts (30/1 ML): We hop from the projected biggest underlay to the projected biggest overlay. This colt had always been crying out for added ground and when he got it in the Street Sense S. [G3] he improved immensely. He’s been off the tab since the win, but if he returns in timely order then he can factor on the trail. 

#19 – Lightline (99/1 ML): He bullied a maiden field at Horseshoe Indy at 1 Mile before disappointing in an allowance at Keeneland when 4/5. He finished behind Stretch Ride, who will be one of the Kentucky Jockey Club favorites, but that still doesn’t excuse the regressed effort. 

#20 – Locked (30/1 ML): The beaten Breeders’ Cup Juvenile closed Pool #1 as the favorite. His Juvenile run was disappointing in the sense that he really beat himself, strangely climbing behind kickback and idling on the turns before turning on the jets late. This is a son of Gun Runner with plenty of raw talent and clearly has a lot of room to grow – a good thing for a wager that won’t be settled until next May. 

#21 – Merit (99/1 ML): The maiden win may have come against a weak group at Gulfstream, but the individual performance was very sharp and came with very solid debut figures. Merit has very little pedigree to him but is bred/owned by Peter Blum (breeder of Authentic, Society, etc.) and trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., who is very capable of getting under-the-radar performers to the Derby. 

#22 – Moonlight (99/1 ML): The beaten favorite from the Street Sense S. [G3] actually got first run on eventual winner, Liberal Arts, but then idled from the 1/2 to 1/8th pole before picking up ground late. He’s got strong back class from the maiden runs, barely losing to future G1 winner Carson’s Run and beating next-out maiden winner Stolen Magic two back. His 90 Beyer from the maiden win is one of the strongest maiden-breaking Beyers of the crop. 

#23 – Mystik Dan (80/1 ML): Impressive breaking his maiden a few weeks ago at Churchill but it came over 5 1/2 furlongs. Good ability, however a son of Goldencents does not inspire much in terms of the Kentucky Derby. 

#24 – Nash (20/1 ML): Another Brad Cox runner, Nash took a huge jump forward when stretching out to two turns last time out. The 10 length win was no doubt the most impressive two-turn maiden win of the year. It’s once again worth noting that Cox trainees have struggled off good maiden wins in 2023. 

#25 – Nutella Fella (50/1 ML): All Beyer jokes aside, Nutella Fella is a serious racehorse. His win the Hopeful S. [G1] became a lot less laughable when runner-up, Timberlake, won the Champagne S. [G1] next out. His ho-hum maiden score is also far more impressive with 3rd-place finisher Fulmineo now being graded stakes placed. While you might view Runhappy as a sprinter, he’s actually sired multiple winners at 9 and 10 furlongs, and there’s stamina on the damsire here too. Has been missing from the tab lately. 

#26 – Otto the Conqueror (99/1 ML): He is 2-for-3 with both wins in his last two starts, and the lone loss came to future Street Sense S. [G3] winner, Liberal Arts. While he’s yet to test stakes waters, he has cleared his first two conditions well and he’s built like a horse who can handle two turns. The biggest knock is that his wins haven’t been over high-quality runners.

#27 – Parchment Party (99/1 ML): The morning line is, uh, interesting. If I’m way off base then I’ll be very happy to play him at triple digit odds. It’s not often you see a Bill Mott trainee open up their 2-year-old seasons 2-for-2, and this guy has come from well off the pace to win both. On top of that, both wins have come over a route of ground and he is physically built like a horse who can run all day. It’s worth noting that he’s bred on the same exact cross as Tiz the Law and We the People.

#28 – Private Desire (99/1 ML): Yet another out of that loaded Dornoch debut race, Private Desire bounced back to win a maiden race at Aqueduct before a tough go of things in the Nashua S. [Listed]. In that race he missed the break, ran erratically through the first portion of the race, and then showed interest before flattening out late. It’s more or less a line through race, but then we only have an average maiden win to go off of.

#29 – Real Men Violin (99/1 ML): He finally broke his maiden last time out going 8.5 furlongs at Churchill. Prior to that, he’d run big races without ever actually winning them, but most of the runners who have beat him struggled next out against winners. One of the weaker offerings.

#30 – Risk It (50/1 ML): The favored runner-up from the Iroquois S. [G3], Risk It had every opportunity to win that race but was no match for West Saratoga. He was a flashy maiden winner at Saratoga in preparation for that race, and if we go off that effort he can be a very nice horse. Thankfully, we’ll learn a lot about him in the Kentucky Jockey Club on Saturday.

#31 – Sierra Leone (80/1 ML): There was plenty of good word on this colt heading into his maiden win and even more so afterwards. This Chad Brown trainee and son of Gun Runner did not have the easiest of trips, but worked himself out for a workmanlike victory at Aqueduct. It’s clear to me this colt will relish every bit of ground he gets and should be a player in the spring.

#32 – Stolen Magic (99/1 ML): He broke his maiden at a sprint distance two weekend ago but has quality two-turn experience, having lost by only a neck to future graded stakes winner, Agate Road, on debut at Saratoga. Between those two efforts, he was also placed behind Moonlight. Not sure if he’s the quality of a Derby winner but he has the pedigree for it and should prep softly on the New York scene.

#33 – Stretch Ride (80/1 ML): What’s more wild than a 2-year-old winning on debut for Dale Romans? One that wins two in a row. He beat a well-regarded runner in Lightline at Keeneland last out when stretching out to two turns for the first time. If he wins the Kentucky Jockey Club this weekend, he might just be a serious Derby contender.

#34 – Stronghold (99/1 ML): A well-bred Phil D’Amato pupil, Stronghold was 2nd to Nysos in the Bob Hope S. [G3] last time out. He seems like a really nice horse, but with his running style and pedigree he doesn’t seem like a Derby type.

#35 – The Wine Steward (60/1 ML): It was very unfortunate that this colt scratched from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He looks like a serious horse from his close 2nd in the Breeders’ Futurity [G1] behind Locked. He’d been impressive at one turn and got even better with a route of ground, so hopefully he bounces back from whatever held him out of the championships and hits the Derby trail running. You’ll probably get the same, or better, price come the next pool if he’s off until then.

#36 – Timberlake (40/1 ML): Even though he was 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile [G1], Timberlake is a horse with plenty of ability going forward on the Derby trail. He closed as the second individual choice in the first pool off his impressive score in the Champagne S. [G1]. He was surprisingly rank in the Breeders’ Cup but still put in a run before flattening late. He looks like a big, unrefined juvenile who will physically blossom with time. If that’s the case, he could be a freak come May.

#37 – West Saratoga (99/1 ML): A stakes winner at Churchill Downs, West Saratoga won the Iroquois S. [G3] over a few other future wager options. That includes Liberal Arts, who won the Street Sense S. [G3] in his next start. West Saratoga came down to Earth last time out with a disappointing loss against Grade 1 company at Keeneland but has returned to the worktab since then.

#38 – Where’s Chris (99/1 ML): He surprised as the winner of the Nashua S. [Listed] last time out and threw a hefty 88 Beyer. His lone win before then was an auction maiden win at Aqueduct and then a distant third in an off-the-turf stakes at Aqueduct. Hard for me to figure out how good he is because the quality of his stakes win wasn’t great. Rick Dutrow is in fine form right now and that could easily carry into 2024. 

#39 – All Other 3YO Fillies (80/1 ML): There aren’t any fillies that I think could test the Derby trail at the moment. Easy pass.

#40 – All Other 3YO Males (4/5 ML): This is, of course, the popular choice at this early juncture in the Derby trail. The last horse to appear on a Future wager in the fall prior to their Derby was Nyquist in 2016. At this point for the past two Derbies, there were approximately zero people thinking about Rich Strike or Mage for the Kentucky Derby, so there’s a good chance we have yet to see the Derby winner. 

All of the Bob Baffert trainees fall under this category, and it’s a laundry list of legitimate runners. Muth and Prince of Monaco are both Grade 1 winning juvenile who ran credibly in the Breeders’ Cup and are bred to like 10 furlongs. Nysos caught a lot of eyes with his Bob Hope S. [G3] win at Del Mar and is also bred for the Classics. Impressive maiden winners from the barn include Coach Prime and Pilot Commander. Other non-individual contenders could emerge from the Ed Brown S. at Churchill on Saturday, as well as a first-level allowance that goes as Race 7 on the card at 1 1/16 miles.