Road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby – The Grade 3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes – By Eric Solomon

While this a race that Charismatic put on the map as a Derby Prep back in 1999, some other notable runners have used this race to springboard themselves into a victory in a Triple Crown race. Touch Gold was the winner here in 1997 before finishing a tough luck 4th in the Preakness, but he would go on to score in the Belmont Stakes that year. Both Risen Star and Hansel won this race. They both failed to get the job done in the Derby, but would both go on to win both the Preakness and the Belmont.

Since the advent of the Derby Points System, this race has become the last chance for prospective Derby horses to get the needed points to gain entry into the Kentucky Derby. Hades (#5), Encino (#8), and Liberal Arts (#9), all could make the Derby field with a win in this race. While those three have the most on the line, the morning line favorite is the exciting New York bred, The Wine Steward (#2) for Mike Maker. Even with a win, the Derby feels unlikely for this Vino Rosso colt. However, the Preakness or Belmont could be on his radar if he can pass the test in this race. Post time for the last Derby Points Race for the 2024 Season in 5:48 (ET)

Keeneland, Saturday 4/13/24, Race 10: The Grade 3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes

42 Total Derby Points (20/10/6/4/2)

1 – Secret Chat (15-1 ML): The first of three Gulfstream Park invaders is a Florida bred, making his second start of the year. He crushed a field of state bred runners when breaking his maiden on debut in August. He tried open company in the Aventura Stakes in October where he finished a close second as the beaten favorite. Roderick Rodriguez brought him back to the races last month in an optional claiming/N1X state bred allowance sprint where he finished second. He’s had trouble at the gate in all three starts, and while the rail draw may help that, I don’t think he’s good enough to beat this group. 

2 – The Wine Steward (5-2 ML): I thought he was good enough to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year with the right trip. After watching Fierceness win, that may have been a foolish opinion, however, he was scratched out of that race, so he never got the chance to prove it. He was a little late getting back to the track this spring, which has all but eliminated him from Derby contention at this point. This race feels like a starting point to some bigger goals down the road. He was extremely game when narrowly losing to Locked in the Breeders’ Futurity when he was last seen on the track in October. He’s done nothing wrong up to this point and with his point and the speed signed on for this race, he figures to be one of the major players. 

3 – Dilger (12-1 ML): When he broke his maiden at Gulfstream last month, he became the first North American horse sired by Lope de Vega to win a route race on the dirt. The only other runner this horse sired to win on the dirt came in a five furlong, lower level maiden claiming race that was originally scheduled for the turf. Dilger’s effort seemingly came out of nowhere last time out. He ran three times before that, twice on the turf, and once on the dirt. He finished off the board all three times, losing by 14 ½ lengths in his only other dirt start. Top Conor, who beat him in February is a nice horse who just finished 6th in the Blue Grass last weekend. If he can duplicate his last effort or move forward off that race, he should be competitive with this group today. However, that is a big if, and when looking at the competition that he’s up against today, I think I’d need to get better than his 12-1 morning line price to be willing to take that chance. 

4 – Footprint (10-1 ML): This son of Dialed In scored his only career victory in maiden claiming company on this oval back in October. He’s gradually improved since then, most recently finishing a fast closing second in the Rushaway Stakes on the Tapeta at Turfway. He ran well to be third in a strong allowance race on the Rebel undercard at Oaklawn two starts ago. He hasn’t shown a ton of early speed and in a race where the early pace figures to be moderate, I suspect he’s going to be pace compromised. I’m also concerned that he hasn’t run a race fast enough to beat the top contenders and with seven races already on his resume, I’m not sure I see him taking a big enough jump to win this race today. I’m going to pass on him, possibly only using him underneath in a trifecta or superfecta.

5 – Hades (7-2 ML): The surprise winner of the Holy Bull Stakes in February put up a bit of a head scratching effort in the Florida Derby last month. It was no secret that Fierceness was going to be sent to the front with speed from his outside draw in that race. He was drawn near the inside once again and while he initiated a minor bump at the break, he wasn’t really sent for the lead, which allowed Grand Mo the First to steal the rail, and kept him tucked behind the speed, sitting in 6th. He did overcome a last to first trip when breaking his maiden in a 5 ½ sprint when making his debut back in December. However, I think that effort was more of a function of the field he was facing. Being forwardly placed on this course hasn’t been a bad thing over the first few days of racing, especially when the course was fast last week. There’s not much speed to his inside, and outside of Lucky Jeremy, he shouldn’t have much competition for the early lead. I do think there’s a reasonable chance that he has a trip much more similar to his Holy Bull win as opposed to his Florida Derby defeat. Blinkers go on for the first time today, which after re-watching the Florida Derby, feels like a positive equipment change. This will be his first start outside of South Florida, so how he handles the shipping is also something to consider. From a pace and class standpoint, I do see him as a horse that should be contending in this race. 

6 – How’s Ur Attitude (30-1 ML): John Ennis sends out this recent maiden breaker for his first start against winners and his first start on a traditional dirt course. He held on to beat an average maiden special weight field at Turfway in his last start. He’;s worked well since that race, but this feels like a big leap today. I’ll pass on him.

7 – Everdoit (30-1 ML): Although this horse has run back several times on short rest, the fact that he ran here Wednesday suggests to me that he won’t be competing in this race. He was never involved when losing by double digit lengths to Native Land in the slop in allowance company. The winner is a nice horse, but this field is significantly deeper, so if he does run, he won’t be on my tickets. 

8 – Encino (5-1 ML): This son of Nyquist won the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes for Brad Cox at the beginning of March. Cox opted to skip the Jeff Ruby Steaks and enter him in the Blue Grass last week. He was scratched and re-entered in this spot after drawing Post 11. On one hand, a win here should be enough to get him into the body of the Kentucky Derby, and that feels like a more likely scenario then finishing in the Top 3 in that Grade 1 last week. Horses sired by Nyquist like this course, winning 16% of their races on this dirt course. How he handles the course is a concern, but the fact that Epic Ride, who he beat in the Battaglia, was third behind Sierra Leone and Just a Touch, validates that race. The question becomes if we’re going to be able to get fair value on him since he is trained by Brad Cox. I think the 5-1 morning line number is very fair and I do like his chances in this spot. 

9 – Liberal Arts (4-1 ML): I thought this son of Arrogate was primed for a big effort when making his second start off the layoff in the Arkansas Derby. However, he was in tight, which caused him to get out and interfere with some of rivals on the first turn. He ended up getting the worst of the exchange, plummeting to the back of the field and essentially spoiling his chances of getting the job done. After watching that race back, I do wonder if his two better efforts when winning the Street Sense and finishing third in the slop in the Southwest, were a function of a preference for a wet track. He’s another runner in this race that may be affected by a potentially slower early tempo. Irad Ortiz taking the mount for the first time is a plus, and maybe he’ll figure something out in his third start off the layoff today. However, as one of the shorter priced runners in this race, I’m going to be looking elsewhere. 

10 – Lucky Jeremy (8-1 ML): This son of Lookin’ At Lucky has taken an interesting path to this race, running twice at Sunland in stakes company and then finishing 5th in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway last month. Early speed is a big part of his game, but he showed in the Riley Allison Derby that he’s willing to concede the lead and stalk from the outside. He should be the one that’s keeping Hades honest on the front end. He’s come up a bit short in his first two starts on the Derby Trail, and my guess is that he’s going to be just a cut below the top runners in this spot as well. He’ll need to move forward and he’s one of the more appealing longer priced runners in this field. 12-1 or better on him is probably the number that would start to pique my interest with him.

The Verdict: 8-5-2

While value could be an issue, I think Encino stands to sit the perfect trip in this race with Florent Geroux riding for Brad Cox. How he handles the course on race day is a definite question, however his pedigree tells me that he’s going to appreciate the course. Horses sired by Nyquist like racing here and I think the form from the Battaglia Stakes, which he won, has held up. 

Hades is a rebound candidate after a strange trip in the Florida Derby two weeks ago. I’m always a little nervous when betting back the horses that are coming back quickly in this race, because this race was most likely not a planned stop on their Derby Trail. However, I think the shorter distance (and the shorter stretch at this distance) and the lack of early speed to his inside both are factors that work in his favor here. 

I’ve been excited to see what the New York bred, The Wine Steward can do as a three year old. He showed a lot of promise in his two year old campaign, both in state bred and in open company. Winning this race would be nice, but it’s probably not the goal at the moment, especially with some tempting races like the Preakness, the Peter Pan (which will be a two turn race this year), and the Belmont, all as possible targets on the horizon for him. He might be able to beat this field on class alone, but at short odds, I’ll try to find better value. 

We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 149th Kentucky Derby on May 6th, 2023. Current futures odds from Circa,  Caesars-William Hill, or Westgate will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.