Back in action at Kentucky Downs on Saturday after a day off between Thursday’s opener. Three graded stakes highlight the action and be sure to check out the great podcast PTF and Nick Tammaro put together going into depth on those races here. You can see my picks for those races below, but I found a few spots outside of those events a bit more interesting from a wagering standpoint.
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Selections
- Race 1: 5-2-6-7
- Race 2: 5-8-7-2
- Race 3: 3-6-4-7
- Race 4: 4-1-12-10
- Race 5: 9-8-12-7
- Race 6: 4-12-6-8
- Race 7: 9-4-7-11
- Race 8: 12-6-3-9
- Race 9: 5-8-2-11
- Race 10: 10-9-6-5
- Race 11: 5-4-12-11
Kentucky Downs Race 4: Linzer (#4) at 7-2 or higher
There looks to be a good amount of pace signed on for this spot which will work in the favor of both Dancing Rinca (#10) and Elegant Trip (#12). The former ships in from the left coast after racing at a variety of distances on the southern California circuit. That versatility will do her wonders as she tries a new distance here, but her trainer has had little success at Kentucky Downs recently with the Drysdale barn posting a record of 0/13 with only 3 in the money over this track. Elegant Trip is trained by Rusty Arnold who knows how to win here, but she got an awfully nice setup to break her maiden and now tries winners for the first time. I view Committee of One (#1) as the horse to beat in this spot. Steve Asmussen’s barn was once one I was willing to fade at this track, but recently he’s turned it around with five winners on the last four racing cards they’ve had going back to last year. This colt is well drawn on the hedge as this race starts near a bend and is proven to be competitive at this class level. My top pick is Linzer (#4) and although he’s a horse with speed in a race loaded with it, I’ve found these 6f races to be a bit kinder to those types compared to the more frequently run 6.5f. I liked the fight this colt showed in his last race to nearly hold on in a pace battle and Joe Sharp’s barn has come out firing this meet. This could be where international superstar rider Frankie Dettori gets his first Kentucky Downs win.
Kentucky Downs Race 7: Stage Presence (#9) at 6-1 or higher
This $170k maiden special weight kicks off the late pick five which I don’t have the budget to touch with a ten foot pole. Many players will likely try to key on Scarlet Poppy (Ire) (#7) who is one of the shortest morning line prices on the entire card. This Stonestreet filly had a very obvious trip in a race at Saratoga on the Jim Dandy undercard and will likely get bet heavily off it. She certainly can win for a trainer in Wesley Ward that routinely has success at this meet, but is likely an underlay. I don’t love that Flavien Prat is listed on a rank outsider, but maybe he wasn’t afforded the opportunity to ride her back after getting stopped in traffic last out. I have a couple price players I’m interested in for this spot. The first is Hi’iaka (#4) for Rusty Arnold. This barn has a flat bet profit over the last five years at Kentucky Downs and I imagine she’ll run even better second off the bench. My top pick is Stage Presence (#9) who was sold at auction this summer and now is in the Eddie Kenneally barn. She wasn’t beaten all that far by the favorite in their meeting back in June and this filly had a somewhat wide journey. This is a positive move for this barn posting a record of 4/16 (25%, $2.75 ROI) for turf sprinters coming off 90+ day layoffs.
Kentucky Downs Race 11: Birdwatching (#5) at 2-1 or higher
The nightcap initially appears pretty wide open on paper, but I feel like there are only a couple major contenders. Whappen (#12) could go off favored coming out of a troubled trip in her debut at Churchill for Brendan Walsh, but will have to deal with a tough outside post. On Command (#4) is yet another Rusty Arnold trainee in with a big shot this afternoon. This filly has a good amount of early speed and can be very dangerous if allowed to control on the front end. However, I’m betting Birdwatching (#5) in this spot as she comes off the layoff for Arnaud Delacour. The figure she ran in January of this year already puts her in the mix to win this race and you’d have to think there’s marked improvement coming with 7+ months to grow up. This horse also fits two separate high-percentage and profitable stats for this barn. Delacour is 20/72 (28%, $2.03 ROI) with second time starters in turf maiden races and 6/15 (40%, $2.13 ROI) with horses coming off 180+ day layoffs in that same type of race. I’m a big fan of Karakontie as a sire and this filly appears to be training forwardly at Fair Hill for her return posting two bullet workouts in the last three weeks.
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Meet Statistics
Coming Soon!
