Greetings from a shortened Day 3 of the seven-day meeting at Kentucky Downs! I debated making this a write-up handicapping how many races they’ll actually run because of the intense heat, though I’ve found that horse racing handicappers are not as loathed as weathermen and I wish to still be relatively hated, but still somewhat liked, so I’ll remain in my tout lane trying to provide quality insight on the races from Kentucky Downs. At least I think it’s quality – find me other handicappers that will articulate their opinions the way I do.
My goal remains not necessarily to show you how great and smart I am with how many winners I can pick, but instead to help you get your gears rolling on how to approach a race. Because I know horseplayers, I am a horseplayer; we NEVER listen to anyone, so I’m just hoping that I can present analysis that inspires winning plays by you. It’s all up to you at the end of the day. I won’t be around forever, so you must learn to grab the horse by the reins and cash the winning tickets.
And so with the weather-amended program in front of us, I’ll provide thoughts on the first five races because I’m imagining that is the minimum they will get to run from the seven races they’ve scheduled. Thursday’s card is also another opportunity for you to qualify for the championship round of the King of the Turf Handicapping Challenge, so be sure to check out the Kentucky Downs website for more information on playing in that contest.
For now:
SUNDAY, AUG. 30 RECAP
Race 1- The favorite landed way too low for any action and the race proved to be a perfect opportunity to play against. Entering the turn, I was saying to myself that #8 Capodost, off at even money, should have won since he landed so cleanly into the second flight, but greenness came through again as he stutter stepped at the bottom part of the turn before levelling off and missing the board entirely.
We had two price hopes as alternatives in this race with #3 Fifth Peg, off at 16-1, and #5 Hips of a Lady, off at 28-1. Fifth Peg had slightly more credentials in the handicapping than Hips of a Lady, and she ran a much more credible race. She broke great and endured a shuffle and checked at both the start and finish of the race but could only finish second to #6 Quibbler, who won on debut at odds of 22-1 for trainer Riley Mott and jockey Jaime Torres. I just presumed being a Riley Mott trainee that she would run well on debut but not necessarily a winning run, but in hindsight she stood to potentially breakthrough because the case for the favorite was the fact that this was basically a maiden claiming race in scope, so Mott could have snuck a nice one into this race on technicality. Not impossible to have and you definitely got the right price if you tried going price shopping like I tried.
Race 4- Man, how lucky were we to land on #7 New Purpose? In a race of pretty much all firsters, there was simply no way you could guess a Godolphin homebred would win at first asking for Brad Cox and Flavien Prat. Just impossible luck on our part. Plus, this “happenstance” call went off at 2-1, most likely only because this is Kentucky Downs and that is enough to put a hex into how anyone handicaps these races. I guarantee you at any other racetrack in North America this horse goes off around 6-5, especially with the scratch of morning-line favorite #8 Emma’s Justice. We made out like bandits on this one. She responded nicely when activated at the bottom of the turn by Prat and bounded away. Beautiful.
WINNER!
Race 9- Tyler Gaffalione gave a perfect ride to #4 Clever Mischief, but the horse has shown himself to be susceptible to an even finish late. Gaffalione perched alongside the leader through quick fractions that ultimately bit him but stayed game to hold third at lower odds than I would’ve liked, 6-1. Playing against the favorite, #6 Lambeth at 2-1, was the right play but I would not have expected Rusty Arnold’s horse, #14 Plensa, to be able to capitalize in a race of this pace since his 22-1 win in the Gun Runner last year came on the heels of a :44.3 first half. But action on the front was hot enough to make Clever Mischief waver and Plensa was a play purely on horse for course, which can you really be called that with one win from one run? Not a convincing angle for me to hinge a whole bet on, but the horse was still ignored to 12-1 in a pretty evenly bet race.
The other hope I had in the race, #5 Baby Max, just put together an even run from the middle of the pack. We lost two hopes to scratches in #2 Native Runner and #11 Abrumar, but I’m left wondering with how the top two from this race closed if Native Runner would’ve toyed with this field.
Race 10- We ended up with the favorite in this single on #2 Seneca Park since the public had doubts about Wesley Ward’s #3 Waggley, off the third choice at 7/2. I didn’t buy the speed on #4 Severely Overpayin, who I felt ran inflated fractions with how slick the Gulfstream Park turf can be, but man, Seneca Park really flexed the might she implied at Ellis Park. Hernandez barely asked her in that debut win and showed so much will under minimal pressure at second asking. Sucks that this turned out to be the most obvious opinion at 9/5, but she certainly delivered on expected potential.
WINNER!
Race 11- I was wrong to try and handicap this race of mostly firsters. The call from looking at the form for me was #7 Beach Sandals because he had reason to improve making his first start as a gelding off okay runs, but he instead underwent the sport’s greatest equipment change and just put in another okay run. Brutal. I was also wrong about losing any edge in shopping on some of the firsters. I presumed #6 Jaded had a profile to be more of a routing type, and he probably still could be the way he stormed into the race, but he landed the winning blow at 23-1 to make all of the gimmicks pay balloons. The two Cox horses, #4 Job and #8 Roosevelt, also ran well to get the minor spots, but this ultimately was a race I had reason to feel lukewarm about, though there clearly was money to make on a more speculative opinion. The $3 Pick 3, starting with a 12-1 upset to a logical horse in the second leg, paid over $3,000 and the $5 double starting with a chalk paid nearly $350, so I’ll try to keep that in mind as I continue to figure out my price forecasting when handicapping these races this far out.
THURSDAY, SEPT. 3 ANALYSIS
Race 1 | $170,000 Maiden, for 3YOs & Upward | 1-1/2 Miles (Turf)
This does feel like a race where I respect the chalks, #6 Let’s Be Frank and #10 Diamond Eyed Jack, to keep them onside to a specific degree. I don’t think they’re great win bets inside of this race because of their obvious profiles as types that are good at closing ground at a route (which then shows a potential preference for the added distance they’ll run in this race), but I could see taking a single stab if I could get around 6-1 odds on either. And that might sound farfetched because I just said they’re probably the favorites, but that just means I’ll take my price shopping elsewhere. That’s where I think they are the most actionable price, especially with how these longer races at Kentucky Downs have not been super conducive to late-running types like these, so I’d want to make sure I get my money’s worth.
Beyond the obvious, #1 Gettleman does hold appeals as a horse that can handle the longer distance with the benefit of returning to the flat for a top steeplechase barn in Jack Fisher. These turn-back types that remove literal hurdles from their running path have done well in spots like these, so if he goes off around that 6-1 number I’d consider a win bet. On the speed point I mentioned with the dynamic of the 1-1/2 mile races this meet, I am really intrigued by how #4 Olivetti comes into this race after being gelded. Riley Mott’s had a great start to the Kentucky Downs meet and this one has okay form that could level up moving to this long of a distance, because he’s got the speed to potentially be in the right place but a possible change in temperament from being gelded could help him travel over the longer route to go the distance, so to speak. Caio Caramori also has a speed type inn #2 Payton’s Hammer that’s interesting because he’ll be forward, but I don’t like how he lost on the lead at Colonial back on July 5th. Though he did go hotter fractions than he’d probably have to in this race, so because of that I have him as a loose outsider.
Horse I’m Most Intrigued for: #4 Olivetti (20-1 ML)
Potential Price Uses: #1 Gettleman (6-1 ML), #2 Payton’s Hammer (8-1 ML)
Race 2 | $100,000 Auction Maiden, for 2YOs | 1 Mile (Turf)
I am such a sucker for types like #9 Ditlihi. This horse has not run a bad race in two starts going one turn and now stretches out and switches surface to potentially build on already good runs (yes, he’s still going one turn in this mile but you know what I mean). He tired from a wide run over a wet track at Ellis as the favorite last out and showed great late speed going 5 furlongs on debut while finishing fourth behind a pair of next-out winners. Whenever I read form like this, I always feel like it’s too good to be true. My imagination spins on the amount of upside being shown, which I recognize then makes the gamble about whether this colt can put all the pieces together. If we get the 8-1 morning line, absolutely take a stab.
Otherwise, I’m taking a lesson from another auction maiden earlier in the meet and giving another glance to some other stock since this is ultimately a cheaper class race to other maidens in the condition book. I wonder if #10 Asher Dasher will put together a better performance if he breaks better than he did in the debut. James Graham has always been a rider in my mind that knows exactly how to travel over this ground, probably because of the whole being Irish thing (which is also why I like that Danny Sheehy is riding that John Ennis horse), so Asher Dasher is one I give some points to improve at a possible price. I also have a loose eye on a first-time starter for Lonnie Briley in #6 Greatest Nate since the workouts are alright and Briley got an okay run out of one Coal Battle when finishing fourth in the 2024 Juvenile Mile Stakes over this track. Now that 100 percent could be a horse-specific case, but most of the other first-time starters don’t show tremendous workouts which makes me upgrade this one as maybe a good exotic use in the race.
I Can’t Help That This Horse Is My Type: #9 Ditlihi (8-1 ML)
Possible Longshot: #10 Asher Dasher (10-1 ML)
Exotic Bomb: #6 Greatest Nate (20-1 ML)
Race 3 | $190,000 Optional Claiming $100,000b, for F&M 3YOs & Upward | 6-1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
I’ve seen enough Saffie Joseph Jr. horses run over this track to know that #6 Turino is coming into this race ready. Maybe the #7 Wind Flower is also worth a minor look because she appears back on track from a poor run at Keeneland in April, but I would not be opposed to just singling the Saffie Joseph runner and moving on, especially if #1 Civetta is bet to be the favorite off runs that I think are just fine. Plus I don’t like that she appears in need of a rebound when likely taking money while Turino is coming into this race on a clear upswing.
Single: #6 Turino (7/2 ML)
Backup if Scared: #7 Wind Flower (9/2 ML)
Race 4 | $170,000 Maiden, for 2YOs | 1 Mile (Turf)
This is a weird race. I always want to fish something out of these maiden races, but the top side seems incredibly well meant. My best hope is that the Todd Pletcher runner coming in takes the most action at second asking, because I’m not convinced that he’s going to break better and going to put in a stronger run off that race, especially because #8 Mo Misery went the more eye-catching effort. Mo Misery genuinely flubbed the break as evident by how keenly he ran behind horses moving through the turn. The addition of blinkers off that run feels like a plus, even though this horse showed he was willing to kick any time he had open racetrack; he just had to keep altering course in the stretch but did grab third in spite of the traffic trouble. He just seems like the clear horse to beat, but he’s likely one of the chalks. Mark Casse’s runner, #10 Pride Rock, also holds appeal off a nice run at second asking over at Ellis, but I feel like he could also be left with too much to do while Mo Misery showed he may sit closer to the speed in a race like this. I’m sorry, I feel like I’ve failed you. Unless Mo Misery wins, then you are so welcome.
Deserving Chalk: #8 Mo Misery (4-1 ML)
Race 5 | $180,000 Allowance N1X, for F&M 3YO & Upwards | 1-1/2 Miles (Turf)
The maiden win two back by #10 Pretty Tapit does pop out like an effort that would win this race, but I’m flummoxed by the run next out when she folded terribly out of contention. Was it because she was chasing out of rhythm versus her win at Churchill? Was it a class thing? Was her Churchill race an outlier? I guess these reservations are signs to try and play against if she’s going to be a chalk, especially since Joe Sharp is 0 for 14 to start the meet.
The Mike Stidham filly, #4 Rose Room, is probably the play in this spot. Even though she’s only won once from three starts, she has not put forth a bad run. She won at first asking in an unsuspecting spot at Delaware Park, put together a strong rally off quick fractions to finish fourth over this track in the Juvenile Fillies last August and debuted with a type of run that could serve as a good building block into this race stretching out from a mile to 1-1/2 miles. Nothing else really grabs me in this race that ultimately is up for the taking if any speeds roll out and hit a good stride, but on handicapping the form I’m drawn to the Godolphin runner and will hope that she can bound up again at this longer distance to win.
Only Horse That Really Catches My Eye: #4 Rose Room (10-1 ML)
Best of luck in your Kentucky Downs endeavors for Thursday. Hopefully I’ve got a good shout or two in these races, and hopefully these races run because otherwise I just wasted several hours of my day. Good luck to all of you competing in the King of the Turf challenge as well!
