The Kentucky Downs meet always flies by in a flash as we close the curtains on this unique course just 13 days after they opened. It remains to be seen what Breeders’ Cup implications this meet will have, but it’s certainly put a lot of money in a lot of owners/trainers/jockeys pockets with the inflated purses distributed all meet. If you get a chance, also check out my thoughts on this card in audio form as I linked up with Nick Tammaro to cover a very competitive late pick five.
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Selections
- Race 1: 6-12-8-13
- Race 2: 7-8-2-11
- Race 3: 7-3-4-9
- Race 4: 1-5-8-2
- Race 5: 3-1-2-10
- Race 6: 9-10-6-5
- Race 7: 1-6-3-7
- Race 8: 3-9-1-7
- Race 9: 2-6-1-9
- Race 10: 2-5-9-11
Kentucky Downs Race 2: Bloody Colors Wave (#7) at 5-1 or higher
I don’t have a major knock on the likely favorite Material Witness (#2) as she projects to be the clear early speed over a course that can be kind to it. She was caught in a wicked pace last time out, before understandably tiring in the lane. Both of Rob Atras’s runners have fired this meet, but this one has had plenty of chances already. You could do worse than betting every Rusty Arnold second-time starter at Kentucky Downs as two have already won this meet and there’s plenty of other things to like with Bloody Colors Wave (#7). I’m excited that this filly by Munnings is trying turf in this spot as her action in her debut suggests she’ll appreciate the surface switch. Furthermore, this barn is 8/63 (13%, $2.61 ROI) going dirt-to-turf in maiden races. I also want to include Moringa (#8) as she gets to the grass for the first time as well. There’s enough pedigree to endorse the switch by Summer Front out of a Siphon (Brz) mare plus this trainer switch is a positive one switching to Pavel Matejka who has hit with a couple longshot at this meet in the past with limited starters.
Kentucky Downs Race 6: Reverse Merger (#9) at 9-2 or higher
Many people might single to start this pick five as Fleming (#6) figures to be a heavy favorite going out for Brendan Walsh and Godolphin. This colt had a productive debut at Ellis when sent off as the favorite that day and this barn’s runners often continue to improve with more racing. I just don’t want to put all my eggs in one basket in a full field with interesting alternatives. My top pick is Reverse Merger (#9) who goes out second-time for Norm Casse as it seems he’s begun training for the Wygod family. This colt is impeccably bred by Into Mischief out of Sweet Sting who herself was out of Perfect Sting the winner of the 2000 BC F&M Turf. I thought this colt ran sneakily well on debut after breaking slow and making a sustained wide bid around the turn and there should be improvement second out. Another second-time starter I want to include is Coalmoon (#10) who goes out for a dangerous barn in Paulo Lobo that sports a flat bet profit with all his runners at Kentucky Downs the last five years. He didn’t do that much running on debut, but the third-place finisher came back to win a maiden race this meet. My goofy longshot in this race is Baltoro (#5) who some may dismiss since Kelsey Danner has yet to hit the board with 14 starters at the meet. However, only a handful of those were single-digit odds and this barn has too gaudy of debut numbers to leave off my tickets. Her barn is 5/35 (14%, $5.72 ROI) with 2YO FTS on turf including 4/20 (20%, $7.50) when those are route races. There’s some pedigree too as Bolt d’Oro wins with 17% of his 2YO FTS runners and both the dam’s two foals to race won their debut.
Kentucky Downs Race 8: Cyber Ninja (#3) at 12-1 or higher
It might be the longest flat race in the country this year as some grizzled veterans go 16.5 furlongs on this expansive Kentucky Downs turf course. The Grey Wizard (#1) is certainly the horse to beat and is probably the most likely winner coming off back-to-back marathon turf wins. However, I’m not going to take a short price on a horse in a goofy race on goofy turf course that he’s not proven over yet. The intriguing new face in this spot is Familiar Dreams (GB) (#9) who makes her domestic debut against the boys in this G3 event. It remains to be seen if she’ll class up against this group as she enters off only a maiden win, but she’s proven at the distance with that win coming at 2 miles. She’s routinely carried 150+ lbs in her races overseas and gets in light at 119 this afternoon. There’s not much speed signed on, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tyler Gaffalione put this Qatar Racing charge right on the front. I might be going a bit off the reservation with my top pick, but I have a few reasons to back Cyber Ninja (#3) at what’s sure to be boxcar odds. There’s no clear proxy for whether a horse will like this Kentucky Downs surface, but to me Belmont park’s wide, sweeping turn provide the most similar configuration. This long-striding Arrogate colt ran all his best races going 11f at Belmont which is a similar setup to this 16.5f affair. His form is all dirtied up with tries on tighter turn turf courses, a couple dirt races and even a synthetic route. The Bill Mott barn has been firing this meet and I can see this colt outstaying his competition.
Kentucky Downs Race 10: Isle of Capri (#2) at 2-1 or higher
We close out the card and the meet the only way Kentucky Downs knows how — with a full field. I have some negative notes on a few of the shorter prices on the morning line. I don’t need Pure Breeze (#1) at what figures to be an underlaid price with Irad in the saddle. Sure, she made a little move in her debut last week, but she didn’t take any real money that day and Joe Sharp doesn’t have the best numbers with juveniles second-out. I’m not betting any Demarchelier’s so that rules out Close Up (#10) and Cheetah Lady (#6) goes for a barn in Whit Beckman that lacks juvenile success. I’m honing in on Isle of Capri (#2) and I wouldn’t be surprised if this Munnings filly is a real runner as the Coolmore horse I can remember being trained by Brendan Walsh. I always take note when a new trainer gets one from one of these blueblood ownership groups like Godolphin, Juddmonte, etc as they’re likely to want to get off on the right foot and attract more business. It’s just a short worktab ahead of this debut, but the last breeze was a bullet. I can also throw in Precious Medley (#5) on some tickets as she goes out for Kelsey Danner who has those impressive statistics I mentioned above. Rusty Arnold isn’t know for his debut runners, but the numbers aren’t as bad as I would’ve expected and Reagan Alice (#11) has a nice pedigree. Finally, Evelyn Louise (#9) merits a look as Vikki Oliver’s runners often improve with a start and this filly has the services of Frankie Dettori for an owner in G Watts Humphey that points to these Kentucky meets.
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Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 66-12-12-5 (18%, $2.03); Featured Horses: 20-4-3-4 (20%, $4.04)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 38-3-5-3 (8%, $2.06); Featured Horses: 15-2-2-3 (13%, $4.53)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 44%; B’s: 21%; C’s: 30%; X’s: 5%
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