Kentucky Downs returns to the scene this Thursday with another action-packed card featuring full fields aplenty. Hopefully we can come close to duplicating the performance we had in this space when they last raced on Sunday as the “All A” pick five hit for over $11k highlighted by a 22-1 winner that was fortunately put up via disqualification. I also am covering the Colonial Downs meet for In the Money Media and that track is also in action today. You can check out my analysis for the central Virginia oval right here.
Follow me on Twitter: @mdomhokie
Selections
- Race 1: 12-10-4-2
- Race 2: 3-5-4-6
- Race 3: 1-5-6-7
- Race 4: 9-5-2-12
- Race 5: 3-1-4-6
- Race 6: 8-1-4-2
- Race 7: 7-1-3-8
- Race 8: 9-6-2-12
- Race 9: 2-7-4-8
- Race 10: 10-5-4-12
Kentucky Downs Race 1: Concrete Cruiser (#12) at 9-2 or higher
This $100k maiden race is restricted to 2YO’s that sold at auction which is part of the reason why it’s not as concerning that the horse to beat, Look to the Cross (#4), debuted in a maiden optional claiming event. I thought this McPeek colt ran better than Rag Tree (#9) and also has room to improve in his second career start. Optical (#10) ran in a open maiden special weight last time at Ellis and while he tired badly in the lane, that was due in part to a wide trip. I think this Keith Desormeaux trainee will be sent off at a big number and has a solid pedigree by City of Light out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare. My top pick is Concrete Cruiser (#12) who tries turf for the first time for the red hot Joe Sharp barn. While neither his dam nor any of his siblings have won on the grass, the Sharp barn tried to get him on the the grass last time, but that Saratoga event was rained off. This is a barn that’s had success with this move as it posts a record of 7/28 (25%, $3.20 ROI) with juveniles moving dirt-to-turf in maiden races including 2/9 (22%, $4.09 ROI) at Kentucky Downs. It doesn’t hurt to have perennial leading rider Tyler Gaffalione named aboard.
Kentucky Downs Race 9: Immensitude (Fr) (#2) at 8-1 or higher
The One Dreamer Stakes is among the most wide open events on the entire Thursday card as twelve evenly matched rivals meet in search of their first stakes win of 2024. I view Papilio (Ire) (#4) as the horse to beat in this spot. She’s been caught behind some very slow paces in a couple of her starts this year leading to her form looking a bit dirtied up. She always comes running in the lane, but I don’t want to stomach too short a price on anyone in this competitive affair. Anatolian (#8) makes some sense as well as she goes out for dangerous connections in Tyler Gaffalione and Mike Maker. However, I’m not sure the turnback in distance really works for her and her best running has been primarily at Gulfstream Park. Safeen (#7) is an interesting longshot if sent off at anything near her 20-1 morning line. While she disappointed over this course in the Dueling Grounds Oaks last year, that 11.5f trip might’ve proved beyond her scope and she’s already proven some affinity for this course narrowly missing by a nose in her debut. She was too far back last time in a prep at Ellis won by Walkathon who came right back to win at this meet. Now she’s fitted with blinkers and the rider assignment of Luis Saez signals they’ll try to be more forward in this spot. My top pick is Immensitude (Fr) (#2) who is still in search of her first win on these shores. I thought she ran better than Safeen in the Mint Julep when forced wide and she was similarly uncovered in her journey last out. I think the inside post will be key to garnering a good spot early on. She was a Group 3 winner in France last year going the 9f distance which plays similarly to the testing mile and seventy yards she faces this afternoon. Furthermore, she’s owned by Wathnan Racing which is an ownership group worth becoming familiar with. The primary benefactor is the Emir of Qatar and this group notched victories with four runners at the Royal Ascot meet this year. The group has already begun its raid on racing stateside notching the G3-Iselin Stakes at Monmouth with Subsanador and campaigning exciting prospects Parenting and Cagliostro.
Kentucky Downs Race 10: Raconteuse (#10) at 3-1 or higher
I’m willing to fade a couple of the shorter priced favorites in the nightcap and will let horses like Mo Chat (#1), Appeellate (#7), and Adrasteia (#8) beat me. Of those three, Appellate seems an especially bad bet as she just hasn’t seemed to train on from her promising juvenile season. Public Assembly (#5) makes a ton of sense second off the layoff after rallying resolutely in the lane in her Ellis Park return. The problem is that she got a pretty nice pace setup that day and Chad Brown doesn’t have the best numbers at this track with a record of 4/30 (13%, $1.15 ROI) in the last three years. I like Raconteuse (#10) in this spot and hope that her 0/9 record dissuades the public from backing her. She just appears to be a horse improving with every turf start as to be expected from a patient conditioner like Ian Wilkes. This barn has had mixed success at this track over the past few years, but is quietly having a very solid meet. From his six runners this meet, all have been over 8-1 yet three have hit the board and Walkathon took the G3-Ladies Turf paying over $19. This filly had a wide journey, but plugged on through the lane last out at Ellis so that gives me confidence she’ll handle the added ground of this trip.
#TheCheatSheet
Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 33-7-6-2 (21%, $2.73); Featured Horses: 9-3-2-1 (33%, $6.63)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 18-2-3-2 (11%, $3.17); Featured Horses: 5-1-1-1 (20%, $9.35)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 48%; B’s: 15%; C’s: 33%; X’s: 3%
