We’ve hit the penultimate day of the boutique Kentucky Downs meet and while we trade seven-figure Breeders’ Cup prep races for six-figure maiden special weights, there’s plenty to sink our teeth into. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to join Nick Tammaro for a pod covering this card, but he found a more than suitable replacement in the sharp Eric DeCoster, so be sure to check out their thoughts on the late pick five here.
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Selections
- Race 1: 7-1-2-3
- Race 2: 8-10-1-2
- Race 3: 2-9-7-1
- Race 4: 8-1-7-11
- Race 5: 1-4-8-10
- Race 6: 11-3-10-2
- Race 7: 5-9-4-6
- Race 8: 4-1-8-2
- Race 9: 8-6-2-12
- Race 10: 7-4-12-3
- Race 11: 2-4-9-1
Kentucky Downs Race 3: Samay (Per) (#2) at 12-1 or higher
The two fillies that look like they’ll vie for favoritism in this spot are stakes winner Malleymoo (#9) and Saffie Joseph Jr trainee Movin’ On Up (#7). The former has switched barns a few times in her career racing for four different outfits in eleven starts and I feel like she was running better for Sisterson than Clement/Pletcher. She can win, but I don’t need to bet her to win. Movin’ On Up performed admirably when fourth in the G2-Saratoga Oaks, but I was even more impressed with her win in the N1X prior to that. She seems to be peaking at the right time for a barn that’s hot right now, but also will be a short price in this competitive field. I’m trying a bit of a longshot in this spot and made Samay (Per) (#2) the top pick. I realize it appears she hasn’t been facing the same class of rivals that the two morning line favorites have, but I think she’s circling up to a big effort. She proved too headstrong in the early stages of her most recent route attempt, but then connections gave her a chance to get some of that speed out of her in a sprint. I like the route-sprint-route pattern for a turf horse with speed as I believe it will allow her to settle better now. Whether she will take to the Kentucky Downs surface is a question mark, but she handled ground in her home country well racking up 10 wins from 11 starts.
Kentucky Downs Race 5: Bella Haze (#1) at 9-1 or higher
My top pick Bella Haze (#1) is far from the most likely winner in this spot, but she does hold a significant pace advantage over her rivals in this 7f affair. While it’s been a while since her last win, it’s worth drawing a line through a few dirt races where she didn’t pick up her feet. She ran extremely well over this course last fall finishing a clear second in a 500k stakes race and led the G2-Jessamine deep into the stretch later that year. Lower profile connections will ensure a fair price and it’s not like this is a complicated game plan. I’ll use her in exotics with some of the logicals. Kodiak Wintergreen (#4) also ran well in that aforementioned 500k stakes race over this course last year and the Rusty Arnold barn points to this meet. I think Kehoe Beach (#8) may be bet down off the 7-2 morning line and become an underlay, but she’s training lights out in the morning and with Ward that can be fatal to ignore. Big Trouble (#10) has a slight figure edge on this group, but is running out of chances.
Kentucky Downs Race 7: I’m Otter Here (#5) at 4-1 and/or Ready for Peace (#9) at 7-1 or higher
This is an extremely competitive edition of the Juvenile Mile Stakes and while it’s clear some of the shorter prices on the morning line like Reach for the Rose (#4) and West Beach (#6) can win, I’m looking to a couple horses that scratched out of the stakes races at Colonial as my top picks. I’ve been super impressed with both the career starts of I’m Otter Here (#5). I thought he ran a pretty remarkable race on debut sprinting the 5.5f. He broke poorly that day and unleashed a powerful rally in the lane to just miss second behind Chasing Liberty who came right back to win a $1M race at Kentucky Downs via disqualification. The Hiles barn often pops with a price at this meet. I also want to include Ready for Peace (#9) as this Nacho Correas filly ran through a negative stat of his as his barn was 0/30 heading into her debut unveiling juveniles.
Kentucky Downs Race 11: Gun Barrel (#2) at 3-1 or higher
We close out the card with a full field of juveniles sprinting on the undulating Kentucky Downs turf course. I’d imagine many bettors will default to Research Results (#9) from the powerful Chad Brown operation. She was last seen at Belmont at the Big A back in early July when disappointing as the 4-5 favorite. I know this outfit is dangerous, but I cant take her at a short price off that running line. Aint No Joke (#4) makes some sense to me as the west coast barns have been productive this meet and Phil D’Amato rules the roost out there. However, my top pick is going to be for the home team as Steve Asmussen trains Gun Barrel (#2) for Kentucky-based ownership group Three Chimneys. This Bolt d’Oro colt was put behing the eight-ball in his debut after getting bumped at the break but still showed determination to grab third. I like the extra 3/16+ of a mile he gets this afternoon and could have more speed if breaking clean.
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Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 55-10-10-4 (18%, $2.30); Featured Horses: 16-4-2-3 (25%, $5.05)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 32-3-4-3 (9%, $2.44); Featured Horses: 11-2-1-2 (18%, $6.17)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 44%; B’s: 18%; C’s: 33%; X’s: 5%
