The Kentucky Downs meet always seems to come and pass in the blink of an eye as we’ve already reached closing day. Plenty of multi-million dollar purses have been handed out to connections and plenty of winners have been given out in this space. Let’s hope to continue that for one more day and finish strong. Be sure to also check out my thoughts on these races in audio form as PTF and I ran through the entire card in rapid fire fashion on a podcast you can find elsewhere on this site.
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Selections
- Race 1: 10-1-11-8
- Race 2: 3-7-4-5
- Race 3: 3-4-8-2
- Race 4: 5-4-8-10
- Race 5: 3-6-10-5
- Race 6: 12-7-11-10
- Race 7: 4-10-2-11
- Race 8: 5-10-2-12
- Race 9: 8-9-11-5
- Race 10: 2-11-10-5
- Race 11: 5-3-11-4
Kentucky Downs Race 2: Alpyland (#3) at 9-2 or higher
There’s a significant lack of turf form in this maiden special weight event as only one of the five runners in the main body of the race who have started have contested a race over this surface. Mark Casse brings in a pair who are trying the grass for the first time including Blinging It Back (#4) who has contested multiple stakes events this year despite still being a maiden. This switch to grass seems more out of desperation given the non-effort in his most recent start. I prefer the other Casse runner, Alpyland (#3), who has a bit more turf pedigree than his stablemate and sports a bullet work most recently on his page. Casse is adept at this move hitting at 21% with juveniles trying the turf for the first time ($2.66 ROI, excludes FTS). Of those making their debut, I prefer Vasy (Ire) (#7) who goes out for the always-dangerous Brendan Walsh barn. Most trainers struggle with this move, but the Walsh barn is 19/118 (16%, $2.11 ROI) with all juveniles debuting on the grass and those numbers get even better when isolating to Kentucky Downs. I like to see Gaffalione take the call here and am excited to see what we get out of the progeny of BC Mile winner Space Blues moving forward.
Kentucky Downs Race 4: Pineland (#5) at 4-1 or higher
I’ve seen enough of this act from Rocky Joy (#9) to want to take him as the morning line favorite as he’s disappointed numerous times at a short price. The horses I prefer come out of a pair of Ellis allowance events run last month. While Mischief River (#12) finished ahead of Comes a Time (#8) in the Aug 22 event, I thought the latter ran the better race forced to press the pace wide before tiring in the lane. I like the turnback to 6.5f for him, but question whether the 8-1 morning line is realistic given the Cox-Prat connection. I think more value will come from backing those out of the August 2nd event that included Vesture (#4) and Pineland (#5). The pair were drawn poorly in posts 10 & 11 that day and now will start from more advantageous positions. Vesture was caught a bit wide around the first bend, but was able to position right off the pace-setter and eventual winner throughout most of the race. It was Pineland, who had the tumuluous journey as he broke 3L slow and made a wide, sustained bid around the far turn to put himself on even terms with the leaders before flattening out late. Despite the poor beginning and wide advance, he still outfinished Vesture. I like his chances if he can break better this afternoon and love seeing him reunited with Jose Ortiz.
Kentucky Downs Race 8: Princetown (#5) at 6-1 or higher
While this 7f allowance o/c event looks wide-open on paper I think the tactics by the pairs of runners from the Mike Maker and Jose D’Angelo barns will be the key to deciphering this race. All four of their charges possess an abundance of early foot, but I’d be hard-pressed to envision a 4-ply speed duel given the common connections. I’m playing this race foreseeing Dominican Pioneer (#2) and Take Me To Church (Ire) (#8) as being the ones to contest the pace with Princetown (#5) and Quereme Pass (Arg) (#10) taking up a stalking position behind their respective stablemates. From that group, I believe Dominican Pioneer is the most talented horse, but will be betting Princetown as the one that projects the best trip. This feels like a classic Mike Maker move to claim a horse, get a good run into them and then stretch them out to a longer distance. I love the fact that Princetown displayed an ability to pass horses in that 5.5f prep and couldn’t ask for a better rider in what I view to be a jockey’s race than Flavien Prat.
Kentucky Downs Race 11: Thunder Roll (#5) at 9-2 or higher and/or Feeling Grand (#3) at 7-1 or higher
The meet concludes with a one-mile event for maidens and it will be interesting to see if there’s a continuation of runners with a start at the meet having outsized success. The two shortest prices on the morning line exit the same event from opening day with Western Run (#4) out-finishing Swirling Eights (#8). I wouldn’t be surprised if either got the job done this afternoon, but they’ve had their chances and won’t be appealing prices. I’d actually would prefer to play Feeling Grand (#3) out of that race despite the fact he finished an even 5th at 75-1. That’s because he’s now making his second start for Kelsey Danner who sports a lofty ROI overall at Kentucky Downs and is adept with juveniles making their second start on turf in MSW’s posting a record of 7/40 (18%, $2.38 ROI). I’d bet him at fair odds, but made Thunder Roll (#5) the top selection. He ran like a colt who needed that start last time and should move forward second off the bench. This is an excellent move for the Mott barn with a record of 7/21 (33%, $2.82 ROI) 2nd off 180+ days in turf maiden events. He ran an excellent race in his turf debut on the 2024 Travers Day undercard running a figure as a mid-season 2YO that would put him right in the mix. If he takes a step forward from 2 to 3 and second off the layoff, he should win this event.
#TheCheatSheet
2024 + 2025 Meet Statistics (thru 9/7)
All
Top Picks: 121-29-19-11 (24%, $2.36); Featured Horses: 40-8-6-7 (20%, $2.77)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 71-12-9-9 (17%, $2.50); Featured Horses: 26-3-3-6 (12%, $2.91)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 51%; B’s: 21%; C’s: 21%; X’s: 7%
