Here’s a look at my contest day preparation. Enjoy the Kings Plate day up at Woodbine and get involved in the contest!
Workflow
- Handicap the races: quickly cross out spots on the card that are not your strength. Write something for each race that you like. With all the chaos of a contest, you don’t want to have to remember why you liked ABC with circles on a paper. Writing it out also forces you to think critically about the logic in the pick, it sometimes brings to light a horse you were meh about but you should be bullish, or the opposite can happen and you weaken your opinion.
- Set a target for the day: The contest today will cost $2000 total (2 entries at $1000 a piece). The target will be 15x of the starting bankroll of $500. So the final target will be shooting for $7.5k.
- Build a strategy working backwards: Now that the target is set, what wager can I make comfortably that would pay $7.5k. Here comes in the odds, you have to estimate what doubles or win bets will be paying on the day. My day will focus on the following
- Final move: $3k on My Boy Prince in the Kings Plate (assuming 6/5 price as the #3 Essex Serpent will take money)
- Move to get to $3k: $2k on Filo Di Arianna at 4/5
- Pathway to $2k: Find a spot to get 3-1 on my $500 bet
Contest Plays
- Race 6: All in doubles on each entry
- Entry 1: 2 w 3, assuming 4s
- Entry 2: 4,3 w 3 (dutch the bets to get 4s back, if can use more will)
- Race 8: $2k win bet on Filo
- Race 10: min double bets 5, 8 w 7 (dutch the min bet, fading #12 Warming since price will be too limited)
- Race 11: All in #7 My Boy Prince – hoping $3-4k to get up to $7-8k
- Race 13: min bet #2 Ondine Lady (5-1)
Handicapping
Race 6: Soaring Freely 6.5f (T, outer) – start of late pick five
I don’t like betting two year olds, they’re so volatile in terms of performance. Spread where needed.
- Most Logical: #2 Test Score (4-1) Shows up here from his debut at Saratoga. He ran that race well, showing some athleticism down the lane to switch out and close well. Today with the added distance and the wide turf course, should fit this stalk and pounce trip well.
- Next Best: #4 Coolcollected (8-1) Debut didn’t do much but was well thought of to get bet down to 4-1 in a 7 horse field. Came back (last out) to win at a massive price at 21-1. I think this horse needed that first race and has things figured out. Figures fit here.
- Consideration: #3 Your Valentino (20-1) Doubt we’ll see the full 20-1 here. Ran a great debut race but came back and fired a stinker. That race didn’t go quite to plan stalking and getting checked out of the race to only finish up evenly. With Lasix and blinkers, I think there’s a chance this one steps forward in a big way.
- Fading: #5 Mense (2-1) Ran a race against inferior with easy fractions going 5.5f on the all-weather. The price will be way to short to back on the day. He will have pace pressure (which has wilted on the dirt before) and tries a new surface for the first time.
Race 7: Bold Venture G3 6.5f (AW)
Love this cold exacta in this race.
- Most Logical: #3 Patches O’Houlihan (7/5) Did Patches just step forward as a four-year-old after the layoff?! If you believe that number, this horse is the goods. Today draws an inner post, and should run on with it. All systems are go for this runner.
- Next Best: #6 Playmea Tune (4-1) Perfect 2 for 2 and closing into slow fractions. If the pace doesn’t heat up and this one stays in touch with Patches, could finish very well. Has show the ability to finish but Patches just showed us a new gear.
Race 8: Kjng Edwards 8f (t, outer, one turn)
- Cold Single: #8 Filo Di Arianna (4/5) Should get a very nice run of it. Last out stalked blue fractions and blew by. Two back was wide but shut off down the lane with a bump. Three back ran against the best in the country. I like this one’s chances using speed to press anyone that goes and blow by in late stretch.
Race 9: OC $50k 8.5f (T, inner, two turns)
Full field in what looks to be a head scratcher of a race with a favorite that can’t be trusted.
- Best Value: #7 Clear Destination (6-1) Closing into flow fractions that last three races. Today should get a bit more to run at and has run well over the inner. Is 3 for 43, so that’s not great, but since the change over to Drexler seems to be trending the right direction.
- Next Best: Mr. Who (12-1) Could just get loose in here and go wire to wire.
- Exotic Use: #5 Maakwa (20-1) Another speed horse who might just go to the lead. Is 0 for 4 on turf, but last one in ’22 lost action, ’21 ran against stakes company, and later on was trying to beat maidens.
- Fading: #4 Never Surprised (5/2) Has never quite run back to the Pletcher numbers and has a habit of not finishing his races. I’ll take the bet that this one does the same with two long shots above that need the lead and will find this one either trying to close (which he appears to have hang in him) or will be burnt up on the front end.
Race 10: Catch A Glimpse Stakes 6.5f (T, outer)
Again, two year olds…
- Best Value #5 Ready for Candy (10-1) Seems to always run his race against neutral/slow fractions. Last out got blocked down the stretch having to swing out 5w and close into the winner (who had an easy lead). Continues to get better with each start and Emma Jayne aboard
- Most Logical: #12 Warming (6-1) Best overall figures and comes in off a bit of a break. Strong workouts and Hernandez aboard.
- Consideration: #8 Shezafunkydrummer (8-1) Rivelli always scares me. This one has been working well and Cohen appears to come up to ride just this horse.
Race 11: Kings Plate $1M 9f (AW)
- Cold Single: #7 My Boy Prince (7/5) should get the perfect setup with speed draw to the inside to sit of and pounce. It should be a thrilling finish to see if My Boy can get up over the other favorite Essex Serpent.
