We’ll head north of the border for three of the races in today’s sequence, along with a race from Monmouth and a Grade 1 race from Saratoga. The King’s Plate was rescheduled last week due to bad storms in the areas last weekend, and that historic race will be featured today, along with the Bold Venture and the Catch a Glimpse Stakes. In addition, the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes from Saratoga will also be included in this wager today. The first leg starts with the Bold Venture, which is Race 8 from Woodbine, scheduled to go off at 4:55 PM (EDT).
Leg A: Woodbine, Race 8, The Grade 3 Bold Venture Stakes:
Handicappers are going to have ask themselves from the outset if they’re willing to try to beat Patches O’Houlihan (#3) in this Grade 3 sprint stakes race. Robert Tiller brilliantly campaigned Pink Lloyd to a pair of wins in this race. He came back to win this race last summer as a three year old taking on older runners. He made his first start as a four year old in the Pink Lloyd Stakes and he was absolutely brilliant, winning by six lengths. He has two losses in his career. One of them was in a seven furlong race on the turf and the other was in a Grade 2 sprint where he had to work extremely hard in the first quarter mile and he came up empty late. I don’t see anyone as a legitimate threat to push him hard enough to end up losing this race. While the 6 ½ furlongs is likely at the outer edge of his range, I think he’s better than his six rivals right now.
Leg B: Monmouth Park, Race 8:
The only non-stakes race in today’s sequence is this open $6,250 claiming race going one mile on the main track. Porch Swing (#4) in this race. He’s back at this level where he finished third at two starts ago. He struggled last week when facing starter allowance company, but it’s worth noting that the rail was bad last week. He broke inside and was dueling while running on the more demanding part of the track. He comes back to two turns and short rest, which is something he’s done well with in the past. Tepeu (#8) comes back to the dirt after five straight tries on the grass. Silvino Ramirez has him in good form as he prepares for his third start of the month. Despite winning on the grass at long odds three back, his other two wins have come on the dirt. If Rojas can avoid losing too much ground into the first turn, he should be sitting a decent stalking trip. On deeper tickets, I’ll use Olympic Romp (#5), who I see as a live longshot in this race. The recent form isn’t great, but he is dropping in class after primarily facing tougher foes during this losing streak. He was 4th at this level two back after going quite wide in the early stages. I think he would have been more competitive with a better trip. He’s a 14 time winner, so I do think this seven year old gelding will be able to turn things around at the right level of competition.
Leg C: Woodbine, The $1,000K King’s Plate Stakes:
The signature race of the year for Canadian bred runners drew a field of 13 this year, with all of the runners going 10 furlongs for the first time. Mark Casse has a very strong hand with Essex Serpent (#3), Midnight Mascot (#5), and My Boy Prince (#7). My Boy Prince was 4 ½ lengths better than Essex Serpent in the seven furlong Queenston Stakes in June. They split up after that race, with My Boy Prince winning the Plate Trial in impressive fashion and Essex Serpent going gate to wire while under pressure all the way in the Grade 3 Marine. I don’t trust the pedigree with Midnight Mascot to get the distance, but both Essex Serpent and My Boy Prince are too good to ignore in this race. I’ll put both of them on my tickets, but I’m going to try a longshot, Pierre (#8) as my top pick in this race. He’s had impressive early moves in his last two starts, but he’s struggled to sustain those bids in the stretch. Rafael Hernandez winds up on his stablemate, Caitlinhergrtness (#4), the filly who just missed in the Woodbine Oaks. David Cohen is going to pick up the mount for Kevin Attard, and I think he’s capable of running a big race at longer distances, assuming he will be a little more patient when making his big move. This will be his third route and I think he’s equally good on the synthetic and turf. At long odds, I thin k he’s worth considering in the hopes that he’s picked the right spot to put it all together.
Leg D: Saratoga Race 10, The Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes:
While there’s a short field for this contest, this race is the third time Idiomatic (#4) and Randomized (#5) will lock horns. Idiomatic will look to retain her crown in this race, but she’s going to have to beat the horse that got the best of her in the Odgen Phipps on this course back in June. Idiomatic didn’t break particularly well that day and Randomized was able to take advantage in their last meeting. Randomized was inside, while staying a lane or two off the rail and Idiomatic was in the four or five path all the way around both turns. With a head as the margin of victory, that was likely the difference. In the Breeders’ Cup, Randomized had a post position outside of Idiomatic. She made the lead and then Idiomatic shifted out in the two path to hound her every step of the way. Idiomatic draws directly inside of Randomized today and it’ll be interesting to see if Florent Geroux is willing to use his mare to hold the inside position or if he’ll concede the lead and stalk like he did last time. The two ladies are faster than their rivals. I don’t trust Soul of an Angel (#2) at nine furlongs and I don’t think Xigera (#1) or Raging Sea (#3) has a race in their running lines that is fast enough to win this race. Perhaps I could be willing to try Raging Sea if her odds got up in the 8-1 neighborhood. However, I think the two favorites are going to duke it out and be there at the end. I give the narrow edge to the champ, Idiomatic, but not by much.
Leg E: Woodbine, Race 10, The $150K Catch a Glimpse Stakes:
Thirteen two year old fillies are going 6 ½ furlongs in this race, which serves as the local prep for the Grade 1 Natalma here next month. This is a total spread race for me, but I do think Casse is loaded once in this spot. He has Will Reign (#2), Shifty (#4), and Bullet (#7). I’m using Will Reign and Bullet, and with a larger bankroll, I wouldn’t mind having Shifty as well. However, for the purposes of this ticket, she’s going to be left off. Graham Motion has Warming (#12) who was very good when debuting in June at Belmont at the Big A. Motion typically doesn’t have them fully cranked for their debuts so when he has a runner that wins like that at first asking, it’s hard not to get excited about their prospects. The downside to winning like that in June is having to wait two months for another reasonable spot. I think bypassing races like the Colleen at Monmouth at shorter distances made sense, but she might need this one before she’s at her best. However, I liked her debut enough to make her the top pick in this spot. Larry Rivelli will make his first start at this meet when he saddles Shezafunkydrummer (#8). She hasn’t been tested in her first two starts on the dirt. She’s been working up a storm at Hawthorne. Rivelli opted to scratch her out of the Ellis Park Debutante in favor of this spot, as he opted to send Rich City Gal to a second place finish. Maclean’s Music gets 16% winners in turf sprints and the dam did have one win on the turf in her career. Salt (#3) is a longer priced runner that I’ll throw in the mix on this ticket. She was a winner in an odd race on a good course here last month. The fractions were slow and she stalked the front runners before coming over the top to pull away late. I think a firmer course might be more to her liking today while making her third career start and her second try on the turf.
