Learning to Thrive : Cross Country Pick 5 : August 15 2020

One of the great things about this great game that we play is that it never stops. As we prepare for today’s wagers, we reflect on our plays from yesterday and eagerly await the opportunities that will be there on tomorrow’s card. Always picking up a new angle or learning how to do something a little better than before to improve my game is both challenging and exciting for me; one of my new found areas that I am growing in is ticket construction. As I begin to learn new ways of constructing my horizontal wagers, please feel free to walk me. Today we will attempt to look at the Cross Country Pick 5 for August 15, 2020.

Before we begin

My guide book for the concepts of better ticket construction for horizontal wagers can be found – Link to article: https://inthemoneypodcast.com/how-to-thrive-on-the-pick-5/ Mr. Chris Larmey has written an article specifically about the Pick 5, where he gets the perspectives of some of the game’s top handicappers and combines them in a consumable format.

Handicapping

As stated, I will be placing more of an emphasis on ticket construction in these articles but handicapping the races is where it HAS to start. Get a feel for the races within the sequence – Who do you think can win? Who can be beat? Is there any value in me playing the bet at all ? – Will my return be worth it ?

CCP5: 08.15.2020

Leg A: Race 8 from Saratoga

SAR – R8 1- 3/16 Mile. (Turf) SarDrbyIvB500K
There are 4 horses in 1st leg that I believe will be competitive #2 Decorated Invader looks to be heavy favorite in this spot. – He is a very good horse that can make his own trip but likes to come from off the pace primarily. – I think he can be beat. Other horses that I think can win
A: #6 Colonel Liam
B: #5 Gufo also #7 Field Pass

Leg B: Race 10 from Monmouth

1 – 1/16 Mile. PegasusL150K MTH – R10
In this race like the following 3 horses equally
A: #5 Pneumatic #6 Arkaan #8 Jesus’ Team
There is one horse that is listed as one of the morning line favorites #5 As Seen On Tv who has run some big races but I don’t believe that today’s pace scenario will be suitable for him to do his best.

Leg C: Race 9 from Woodbine

1 Mile. (Turf) KngEdwd-G2 WO – Race 9
#8 Delaware is the top pick for me in this spot. – He will be short price but I think he is the mostly likely winner. Other slightly a notch below are #2 March to the Arch and #7 Admiralty Pier. #5 Silent Poet is a morning line favorite that I will leave off my ticket. I believe there there is too much speed in here and he will be compromised.

Leg D: Race 9 from Saratoga

1- 1/4 Mile. Alabama-G1 SAR – R9
#5 Swiss Skydiver is a deserving favorite for this top level race. She will be hard to beat. If she can’t get the job done only horse that could potential win would be #2 Spice Is Nice

Leg E: Race 9 from Woodbine

1 – 1/18 Mile. WO OaksB500K WO
Based up the nature of this race I landed on the #1 Curlin’s Voyage and #5 Afleet Katherine as A’s
#7 Merveilleux as B.
Ticket Construction

Now comes the fun part. Previous to learning more about better ticket construction, I would have been 90% complete with my preparation for this bet. Take all my A’s and play them at a higher amount than by B’s – make them fit my budget and boom… Let’s see how it all turns out. I am now going to attempt weight my plays based up what I think could happen individually taking into consideration the bet as a whole. Lets start with taking all of our win probable horses from out handicapping above and lay them out.

Pyramid Structure

At the base of my bet I will take all of my opinions regardless of letter grade and play them for an amount.

Bet Leg ALeg BLeg CLeg DLeg EAmt
$1.005, 6, 75, 6, 82, 7, 82, 51, 5, 7$162
This bet will serve as the base our our Pyramid Structure – The dollar amount for me here is $1. You could choose the play the .50 amount but I feel good about my handicapping so I will press or increase the overall base amount for this play.
Bet Leg ALeg BLeg CLeg DLeg EAmt
$3.005, 65, 6, 8851, 5$36
Now I begin to be even more selective – as only keep my strongest options. I am reducing my number of runners but also increase the bet amount.
Bet Leg ALeg BLeg CLeg DLeg EAmt
$5.00 55, 6851, 5$20
Now only keeping runner that I am extremely confident in. I continue to reduce my number of runners but also increase the bet amount.

After all is said and done my tickets will look like this

Bet Leg ALeg BLeg CLeg DLeg EAmt
$5.0065, 6851, 5$20
$3.005, 65, 6, 8851, 5$36
$1.005, 6, 75, 6, 82, 7, 82, 51, 5, 7$162

Saver Ticket

Bet Leg ALeg BLeg CLeg DLeg EAmt
$2.0025, 6, 82, 7, 851, 5$36
As a backup play – the very first leg of this sequence there is a heavy favorite that I am attempting to play against- if #2 Decorated Invader does get it done – have a saver ticket. It may not pay that much so we will press it twice and maybe get back our original investment.

One new key concept I am also going to implement is NOT BEING SCARED TO LOSE. By no means I am saying that I want to lose or that I am going to be irresponsible with my wagering dollars. Based upon what I think will happen, I will play it with conviction in an attempt to maximize my profit over a period of time. I may not hit this bet today but if I continue to play in this manner I give my self the opportunity to land bigger scores and I will be Learning to Thrive.

Let’s Make it Happen !!!

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